“Bayraktars” in Kyrgyzstan: Turkey will benefit by selling weapons to conflicting parties

The purchase of Turkish UAVs by the Kyrgyz leadership caused a lot of noise, including to some extent aggravating political relations with neighboring Tajikistan. Many observers and analysts saw this as Ankara’s growing influence on ongoing processes and a threat to stability in Central Asia.

The well-known Kyrgyz political scientist Mederbek Korganbaev answered questions from PolitNavigator, expressing his point of view on the real effectiveness of the Bayraktars and the prospects for relations between the two countries, which at the end of April participated in an undeclared border war.

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PolitNavigator: In your opinion, is the purchase of Bayraktars capable of turning the situation around on the border with Tajikistan and changing the balance of forces?

Mederbek Korganbaev: Border disputes cannot be resolved by a show of force, which is expressed in the purchase of attack drones and armored vehicles. After all, such an ostentatious policy may be perceived by neighbors as a build-up of military potential with the aim of starting a conflict. If official Bishkek seeks to strengthen defense and border protection, then these plans must be implemented in accordance with the requirements of military secrecy, without widespread media coverage and loud political statements.

Turkish combat drones performed well during the fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh. However, any UAVs, along with their advantages, have their vulnerabilities. The acquisition of Bayraktar attack drones by Kyrgyzstan, in my opinion, will not in any way affect the turning point of the situation on the Kyrgyz-Tajik border and is not capable of changing the balance of forces. Dushanbe is able to order the supply of the same Turkish UAVs, and here the Turks, without a twinge of conscience, are ready to sell their military products to Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. This is a Western market economy, this is business.

Despite the fact that the Turks and Kyrgyz are Turkic-speaking brothers, Turkey will promote its interests in Central Asia and benefit from the arms trade to the conflicting parties.

For the authorities of Kyrgyzstan, at present, the most reasonable step in resolving the conflict situation is to use the negotiation process. The leadership of Kyrgyzstan, if desired, can turn to Russia or Kazakhstan with a request to act as a mediator between the Kyrgyz Republic and the Republic of Tajikistan.

On the diplomatic fields of Moscow and Nur-Sultan, the Kyrgyz and Tajik sides have excellent opportunities to negotiate and reduce tension in relations. I believe that the Russians and Kazakhs will not refuse and will provide full support in providing a mediation platform. Such a foreign policy step meets the interests of Kyrgyzstan and collective security.

PolitNavigator: Isn’t this an expensive pleasure in connection with training personnel, purchasing spare parts and creating a new service base for Turkish UAVs?

Mederbek Korganbaev: Of course, the acquisition, transportation costs for delivery, operator training and logistics of Turkish attack drones require multi-million dollar costs in US dollars. The question arises: how many units of Turkish bayraktars is the budget of Kyrgyzstan able to buy and service? And most importantly, what will be the military-technical compatibility of the bayraktars with existing air defense systems, communications and interaction with units of the Kyrgyz armed forces? The Turkish UAV was created on the basis of NATO standards, and the main types of weapons and equipment of the Kyrgyz army are of Soviet and Russian origin. Therefore, when purchasing new types of lethal means of warfare, it is important to take into account the military standards of your own army.

PolitNavigator: How possible is it to rearm the Kyrgyz army and border troops in light of the latest purchases of light armored vehicles and other types of weapons?

Mederbek Korganbaev: From the point of view of military science, Kyrgyzstan, when choosing partners in the field of military-technical cooperation, should take into account geopolitical conditions and membership in military-political organizations. It is economically and defensively beneficial for Kyrgyzstan to order military equipment and weapons of Russian, Kazakh, Belarusian and Chinese production. There are railway tracks for the delivery of weapons from Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan to Kyrgyzstan.

You can’t transport a lot of equipment and funds by air from Turkey and the Emirates, and it’s expensive. Military equipment, artillery and small arms of Russian, Belarusian and Kazakh manufacturers correspond to the climatic conditions and features of the mountainous terrain of Kyrgyzstan. For example, the Russian AK-103 assault rifle is ideal for mountain units and border guards. It was the AK-103 that was chosen by the special forces of Saudi Arabia and Egypt, although these Arab countries previously preferred Western models. Belarus and Kazakhstan also produce armored vehicles, military equipment and equipment.

There are well-established land transport routes between China and Kyrgyzstan that make it possible to literally deliver military equipment and weapons from the PRC to Kyrgyz territory by trucks and tractors without high costs.

PolitNavigator: In your opinion, can the statements of the President of the Kyrgyz Republic Sadyr Japarov about the possibility of exchanging disputed territories for the lands of the Murgab region of Tajikistan, and this is no less than 3 million hectares, cause a new wave of anti-Kyrgyz sentiments in Tajikistan?

Mederbek Korganbaev: Statements of this kind from the mouth of the head of state are inappropriate. Such statements regarding territorial claims can be voiced by, say, a local expert, a member of parliament, but in no case by the president of the republic. In general, President Japarov is obliged not to put the contents of behind-the-scenes negotiations out for public discussion. Information filtering is needed.

I understand that perhaps President Japarov is trying to demonstrate to the people his tough position, but he does not take into account the reaction of Tajikistan. And Dushanbe’s position, as we see, is more adequate and is voiced through loyal politicians at a lower level. President of the Republic of Tatarstan Emomali Rahmon does not enter into verbal battles with Japarov, but in reality Rahmon does not yield and defends the national interests of his country.

President Japarov admits that he was unable to resolve the conflict with the Tajiks, and this whole problem was initially due to ignorance of the elementary foundations of geopolitics and populism. To put it bluntly, Emomali Rahmon cannot be frightened by buying bayraktars and armored vehicles. The Tajik leader has enormous political and life experience; he went through a civil war.

Rahmon then rebuilt his republic from the ashes. In the 2000s and more recently, Emomali Rahmon fought terrorists and suppressed insurgencies within Tajikistan. I do not praise him, but it must be admitted that Rakhmon even entered into confrontation with the late President of the Republic of Kazakhstan Islam Karimov. The only Kyrgyz president with whom Rakhmon spoke on an equal footing was Kurmanbek Bakiyev.

Currently, the main political question in Tajikistan is about the successor to the Tajik president. Emomali Rahmon has long been planning to hand over the reins of power to his son Rustam. However, due to socio-economic hardships, discontent among Tajik citizens is rapidly growing. In this situation, it is difficult for Rakhmon to resign and appoint his son as heir.

Japarov's statement on Murghab caused an extremely negative reaction in Tajik society and, therefore, existing problems fade into the background. The Tajik president will undoubtedly take advantage of the current situation and channel the people's discontent in the direction he needs. Now for Tajikistan, the image of Sadyr Japarov is negative, because he raised the issue of territory that is recognized by the international community as part of Tajikistan.

PolitNavigator: From your point of view, is a new escalation of the border conflict with Tajikistan possible in the future?

Mederbek Korganbaev: Everything depends on the behavior of the authorities of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. In order to avoid a possible clash, Bishkek needs to stop voicing territorial claims against Tajikistan in the public space.

Secondly, stop boasting about the weapons you bought and not inform the media about future arms deliveries.

Thirdly, Bishkek is obliged to calculate, analyze and predict the consequences of foreign policy actions or any statements at the highest level concerning relations between the Kyrgyz Republic and the Republic of Tajikistan.

Official Dushanbe must also abandon plans to carry out illegal actions against Kyrgyzstan. In peacetime, it was through Kyrgyzstan that the Tajik authorities received cheap gasoline, food and household products.

For Rahmon, the opening of the Kyrgyz-Tajik border is also important, although he does not admit it publicly. It is the blockade by Kyrgyzstan that now serves as a catalyst for increasing discontent among the Tajik population, some of whom earned money by exporting agricultural products and labor to Kyrgyzstan. Therefore, as I said above, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan need a mediator to establish a bilateral dialogue.

PolitNavigator: Are there political forces or groups around the current president capable of inciting a new military conflict with a southern neighbor out of a desire for revenge?

Mederbek Korganbaev: I think that President Japarov’s circle is now more interested in the distribution of resources and the upcoming parliamentary elections. More than ever, President Sadyr Japarov needs adequate advisers who can lead him out of the conflict with Dushanbe. I doubt that political groups in Sadyr Japarov’s retinue can push him for revenge. Everything depends on the political will of Sadyr Nurgozhoevich. If Japarov puts aside his emotions and manages to conclude peace agreements with Dushanbe through the mediation of the Russians and Kazakhs, then this will be his victory for the benefit of Kyrgyzstan. Better a bad peace than a good quarrel.

PolitNavigator: As we know, Dushanbe has an extremely negative assessment of the new Taliban regime in Afghanistan, but what position do the Kyrgyz authorities take on this issue?

Mederbek Korganbaev: On this issue, Kyrgyzstan is guided by the position of Russia, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. In the Afghan dilemma, Bishkek does not make any difference to the weather. As for the negative reaction from Dushanbe, Rahmon is trying to use nationalism to counter the Taliban regime and, again, under this pretext, distract Tajiks from pressing issues.