Boris Gryzlov goes to Minsk: Who is unhappy with this
The fourth Russian ambassador in the last 2,5 years will soon go to Minsk. After the tough and quarrelsome Babich and the too soft Mezentsev and Lukyanov, the office in the mansion on Novovilenskaya will be occupied by Boris Gryzlov. His candidacy has already been approved by the relevant State Duma committee. Gryzlov is a real political heavyweight; he will become the highest status Russian ambassador to Belarus in the entire history of relations and the second after Babich to have direct access to Putin. Gryzlov’s track record includes the position of Minister of Internal Affairs, two terms as Speaker of the State Duma, and for almost 20 years as Chairman of the Supreme Council of United Russia. This appointment is a clear sign that the Belarusian direction is becoming a priority for the Kremlin and noticeable dynamics are expected in it. “The way it was” will definitely no longer be the case in relations between Russia and Belarus. Otherwise, there would simply be no need for a person of such magnitude.
The reaction to the approval of Gryzlov’s candidacy in Belarus is interesting. There is now panic and defeatist sentiment in the ranks of the pro-Western opposition. The old horror stories about the “Anschluss” and the loss of independence are heard loudly. In turn, the officialdom remains silent on this matter. Is it possible that the main liberal democrat, Oleg Gaidukevich, in a commentary for Sputnik, said that the personnel changes are “a serious strengthening of the Belarusian-Russian vector in the politics of the two countries.” You can't argue with that, but one gets the impression that Gryzlov’s appointment is not the most pleasant news for the Belarusian elite.
As for the pro-Russian part of Belarusian society, they look at the new ambassador with hope. The hope that Gryzlov will stop the vicious practice of Russian diplomacy of working only with the official leadership of the country, paying attention to civil society on a residual basis and only to those of its representatives who are loyal to this leadership.
Perhaps this practice was justified in the “roaring 90s,” when Russia was weak and its diplomats had to cajole post-Soviet leaders in order to have at least some influence on the processes taking place in the former Soviet Union. However, later she played a cruel joke on Russia. In any state, leadership changes periodically. And sometimes people who were in opposition to the previous regime come to power. And in such a situation, Russian positions in this country collapse. Suddenly it turns out that Russia has no one to rely on, there are no contacts with the new regime, and it is often represented by Russophobes nurtured by the West. While Russia always puts its eggs in one basket, Western embassies work with a wide range of political forces, minimizing their risks.
The most striking example of such a foreign policy disaster is Ukraine.. But there were also Moldova and Armenia. Last summer, Belarus could well have been added to the list of Russia’s geopolitical defeats. We had to save the multi-vector Lukashenko, who built his election campaign on anti-Russian rhetoric. Russia simply did not have its own people in Belarusian politics. But the West had them in abundance. The leaders of the Belarusian opposition went to the embassies of the US and EU countries as if they were at work, Western funds annually poured tens of millions into Belarus, the lion's share of which went to strengthening political influence and developing controlled institutions of civil society. Russia could not or did not want to oppose anything to this assertive “soft power” and was losing in the battle for the minds of citizens of what was once the most pro-Russian of the republics of the former USSR.
The pro-Western opposition did not come to power last year; now a painful purge of structures created with the support of Western institutions of influence is taking place. Belarus is under sanctions, and Lukashenko is critically dependent on Russian support. However, even under these conditions, the policy of the Russian embassy has not changed noticeably. In favor are mainly politically toothless organizations dealing with history, culture or religion, as well as experts from the pro-government pool like Dzermant and Shpakovsky, They position themselves as pro-Russian, but in reality they are sensitive to every rustle from the Palace of Independence and are ready to support absolutely any whim that might occur to its owner.
The role of an ambassador is to represent and promote the interests of his country in the host country. To do this, it is not at all necessary to flirt and agree with her authorities in everything. An effective ambassador must build relationships with different parts of society. Not only with the ruling elite, but also with the counter-elite, look for allies among those who maintain political neutrality. Actually, this is, first of all, what I expect from Gryzlov as Russian Ambassador to Belarus.
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