The Central Bank of Russia has stopped taking oil prices into account when making forecasts
The various scenarios for the development of the Russian economy proposed by the Central Bank do not depend on expected oil prices, because revenues from the sale of hydrocarbons no longer play a decisive role in the country's economy, as before.
The head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, stated this when reporting today at the State Duma of the Russian Federation on the main directions of monetary policy, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“We present four forecast scenarios: base (we consider it the most likely), non-inflationary, pro-inflationary and risky.
Previously, the scenario assumptions were distinguished by the expected level of oil prices. This year, the scenarios differ in changes in factors on the supply and demand side, and potential growth rates,” Nabiullina said.
According to her, the base case scenario assumes that the global economic recovery will be slow.
“Next year we expect growth in Russia of 3.3-4%, in 22 – 2,5-3,5%, in 23 – 2-3%. The economy will reach pre-crisis levels in mid-22. The restoration of consumer and investment demand will be facilitated by the anti-crisis measures taken by the government and the Central Bank and soft monetary policy. If the disinflationary impact of the pandemic continues or intensifies, our policy will remain loose longer than we expect,” Nabiullina said.
She reported that this year, loans to companies over the 9 months of 2020 increased by 8,7%, which is more than for the whole of last year.
“In the current environment, loans for companies are a means to stay afloat, so they have not caused economic growth. The decisions already made will appear in full in the middle of next year,” Nabiullina said.
In general, she explained, the government and the Central Bank have pursued policies that are designed to limit the impact of the consequences of pandemic-related restrictions on citizens and businesses.
“We made the decision to reduce the key rate. Since the beginning of the year, it has been reduced by 2 percentage points. We switched to a loose monetary policy. This policy increases the availability of loans. This supports consumer and investment demand in the economy. We moved more decisively when the situation was calmer, and took pauses at times when financial markets were not very stable,” Nabiullina said, clarifying that there is still uncertainty about the timing of a complete exit from restrictions related to the pandemic.
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