Flowers of the Armenian Maidan. Berries ahead
On July 23, the central square of the Armenian capital became the site of mass celebrations and events - the republic is celebrating three months since the victory of the “revolution of love and dignity” on April 23. On this day, under pressure from the protesting street and after negotiations with opposition leaders, Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan resigned, giving the seat to Nikol Pashinyan.
According to tradition, it is customary to sum up interim results of one hundred days of work of the new government. What has changed in Armenia after the replacement of the “Karabakh” clan with the “Yerevan” ones?
The development of post-Maidan life in the republic is being closely monitored not only from Russia, but also from other countries near and far abroad. The pro-government media of Ukraine are watching Armenia with particular passion, convinced that from the height of their own “revolution of leadership” they can authoritatively judge the successes or failures of their Maidan colleagues in the CIS.
According to Ukrainian Maidan experts, unlike Ukraine, no fundamental changes have occurred in Armenia in three months. And the Armenian “velvet revolution” itself, with the Republic Square untouched by vandals, the absence of unauthorized “lustrations”, arson, seizure of administrative buildings, deadly battles with riot police and other atrocities, looks like a light version of the “sandpaper revolution” in Ukraine.
At the same time, according to observers, there are changes. There is an uncompromising fight against corruption. “It’s easier to breathe, everyone is smiling.” Many people are optimistic about the future of Armenia. At the same time, there is a certain note of disappointment that there was no immediate improvement in the welfare of the population from replacing Sargsyan with Pashinyan.
Yerevan residents admit that Pashinyan’s government “consists of honest people who have no experience or professionalism in public administration.” However, they hope that “soon they will start inviting old but honest professionals into the government.”
Will they pick it up from the street?
One of the main disappointments of Ukrainian observers was the absence of a sharp geopolitical turn in Armenia. Despite the declared course of rapprochement with the European Union and the United States by the leadership of the republic, Armenia does not seek an immediate review of allied relations with Russia or withdrawal from the Customs Union and the CSTO.
True, Ukrainian experts console themselves with the fact that Pashinyan’s government is rather a technical one, a transitional one, formed to hold new parliamentary elections, which are expected to take place either in the fall of 2018 or in the spring of 2019. And that’s when everything will come to a head.
The Ukrainian maydowns are partly right. Pashinyan and the Soros grant-eaters in the government need to hold early parliamentary elections in order to clear themselves of the majority of deputies who remained loyal to Sargsyan.
And about the fight against corruption in the absence of growth in the well-being of the population - this is also true. Welfare is not created out of nowhere as a result of street rallies, and the fight against corruption is almost Pashinyan’s only resource, thanks to which he will be able to attract the sympathy of the population for some time. After some time, this resource will be exhausted, a habit will set in, and then a gradual decline in popularity if nothing breakthrough happens.
There is no doubt that this will happen sooner or later. Pashinyan was supported by prominent Armenian businessmen, including local oligarch Gagik Tsarukyan. The fire of Maidan “revolutions” burns well only with regular financial injections.
After some time, a business that has become involved in politics will certainly begin to demand returns from its clients for services rendered on an exclusivity basis, and even with interest. We have already seen all this. That is, Pashinyan and his entourage have yet to pay their bills, and three months in this case is not an indicator.
Already now, in the protracted “honeymoon” of the population and the authorities, there is a slow growth of those dissatisfied with Pashinyan personally. Moreover, this phenomenon is directly related to the fact that the current prime minister was created by the street.
For example, numerous relatives of convicted criminals serving sentences who supported Pashinyan demand immediate amnesty for their loved ones, citing the “need for change” and the fact that “there have been no amnesties in the republic for five years.”
All sorts of offended people and their relatives, who consider their problems to be a priority, are demanding that the new prime minister immediately “restore justice.” Taking to the streets last spring, they, like the Ukrainian maydauns, were firmly convinced that “Pashinyan will come and bring justice.” And the way everyone imagined it.
This is very typical of the expectations of the crowd that their leader “from the region”, having entered into power, will give up everything and immediately begin to establish justice for his associates manually, right up to the Solomon’s court in a dispute between two street vendors selling pies.
Since it is physically impossible to satisfy the aspirations of all citizens even with the involvement of state institutions, the popularity of Pashinyan and his cabinet will steadily decline.
Nevertheless, the number of Pashinyan’s supporters galloping on Republic Square is still impressive. So who are all these people?
As street protest participants assured outside observers, their movement, unlike the Navalno-hipster “swamp,” was egalitarian. They say that in a single crowd, seed lovers from the working-class neighborhoods of Yerevan spoke out against Sargsyan, supported by startuppers and architects from the Armenian diaspora in Moscow, Paris and Los Angeles who moved to Armenia in search of new meanings.
True, representatives of the proletariat stubbornly did not want to catch the eye of journalists interviewing passers-by and passers-by on the streets of Yerevan, and increasingly journalists, employees of PR agencies, freelancers and other workers in the non-productive sector were in a state of euphoria.
And here are the thoughts voiced by Yerevan hipsters:
“Until the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh is over, Sargsyan’s resignation will not radically affect cooperation with Russia. But Russia should be forced to stop military-technical cooperation with Azerbaijan, or transfer to Armenia all the weapons promised under the 2015 agreement.”
Note that not a single ally of Russia, with the exception of Armenia, is armed with Iskander operational-tactical missile systems, the presence of which has seriously increased the security of the republic from external threats. And, since Armenia did not have the funds to purchase the OTRK, Russia provided a preferential loan to its ally.
Actually, this also applies to other expensive equipment and weapons supplied by Russia to Armenia, but Yerevan hipsters are convinced that for their sake Russia should sacrifice its geopolitical interests in the post-Soviet space and provide valuable materiel on demand.
“Armenia must take steps towards a more balanced policy. Currently, Armenia is a “Russian colony”. In the last months of Sargsyan's rule, the first steps were taken towards the West. They should be continued further by the new government.”
Russian Armenians, who left the republic at a young age during the difficult times after the collapse of the USSR, admit that they love Armenia, but also consider Russia their home. They feel the readiness for change in the air in Yerevan, but at the same time they are burdened by the feeling that their homeland is teetering on the brink of a severe crisis similar to Ukraine or Moldova. “But if Armenia goes through this period, it will be great!”
In general, even among Pashinyan’s sympathizers there is no unity. The feeling is that people’s mood is divided between “foreign countries will help us” and “Russia will help us”, and the latter is represented by a wide range of judgments - from the desire to remain Russia’s closest ally in the new conditions, to supporters of a consumerist attitude towards our country in order to solve their own problems.
Nothing has really begun in Armenia yet. The street's victory has so far been balanced by Sargsyan's political cadres, who retain power. The main action will begin after early parliamentary elections.
It is important that the new government is based almost entirely on the high expectations of the population and personal sympathy given in advance for the new prime minister. And what happens if Pashinyan lets us down and doesn’t justify it? New “revolution of love”? Practice shows that the desire to solve the country's political problems with the participation of the street becomes a habit and slides into complete chaos. Let's go ahead with the Ukrainian rake, dear residents of Yerevan?
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