“Donbass is getting further and further from Ukraine, but the real, big catastrophe of Odessa is still ahead”
The residents of Odessa who experienced the tragedy of May 2 are well aware that the real, big catastrophe of Odessa is still ahead. Donbass, despite the Minsk agreements, is gradually integrating more and more with Russia, and returning to Ukraine is almost impossible, and is not supported by the overwhelming majority of the population.
About this in an interview “Politnavigator” said a deputy of the Odessa City Council Alexander Vassiliev, forced to leave Ukraine and go to Crimea in May 2014. Now Alexander is in Donetsk, where he works as part of the “However. Eurasia" led by the famous political scientist Semyon Uralov. Here the team is working on a book about state building in the DPR and implementing several media projects, the largest of which is “Direct Line” with the head of the Republic, Alexander Zakharchenko.
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“PolitNavigator”: Alexander, you are now in Donetsk. Before that, we spent quite a lot of time in Sevastopol/Crimea, where we left Odessa. What are the main differences in the atmosphere in which Odessa, Crimea and Donetsk live today? People’s moods, their behavior, work and leisure – can you compare?
Alexander Vasiliev: Yes, it really happened that in the last year and a half I have changed my place of residence for the second time, and I have the opportunity to compare. Of course, it’s good to answer the question about people’s moods not only guided by personal impressions, but also by having comparable sociological data on hand for all three regions, but I don’t have them. But I'll try anyway.
The main difference is in the attitude towards the catastrophe that is unfolding before our eyes. In Sevastopol, people look at her and understand that she has passed them by. You know, this happens during summer thunderstorms, when there’s a black cloud right on the horizon, lightning is striking, thunder is already heard, and most likely it won’t even be limited to downpour, but there will be hail. And then something changes, and the cloud passes you by. So it is here. Therefore, people are immersed in their daily problems. The average person is concerned about prices and wages, the tourist is concerned about the level of service and the same prices, the political activist is concerned about corruption, coastal development, etc.
This catastrophe broke out in Donetsk. Hail has already struck from the cloud. But the worst is over. Yes, of course, people are concerned, first of all, with surviving. But the main leitmotif is the restoration of what was destroyed, the improvement of some emerging structures and institutions, and the construction of the state. Therefore, every day, along with difficulties, brings improvements, albeit small ones. Donetsk came to life before my eyes during the months of the conditional “Minsk” truce. People returned, cafes, hairdressers, and shops opened. The housing rental market has revived and is very active.
Odessa is a city that has already experienced one terrible catastrophe, but a local catastrophe. And he lives in the premonition that a real, big catastrophe is yet to come. It is anticipated by both those who are for Ukraine, and those who are against, and even those who do not care.
After May 2, many people left the city, not just some politicians or activists, but ordinary people, primarily from the middle class, those who felt the strength and opportunity to start life over. Some went to Russia, some to Belarus, some to the EU. In terms of scale, this is reminiscent of the Jewish emigration from the time of my childhood, only now it is mainly Russians who are leaving. Now, of course, the summer season is in full swing in the city, which, in the absence of Crimea and partly Azov resorts in Ukraine, looks very good. But, in fact, this is only a disguise of the general crisis into which the Ukrainian economy continues to plunge.
“PolitNavigator”: People outside Donbass are following the situation according to Russian official news, which differs from the data of the “patriotic opposition” - it prefers to talk about the threat of “leaking”.
How is everything that is happening seen from the center of events? Are they really losing it, or is there hope for victory?
Alexander Vasiliev: Yes, gloomy descriptions and predictions of people outside the region have already become a separate genre. I recommend everyone to read those who are here either regularly or constantly and can clearly express their thoughts, who, as they say, are “in the know,” i.e. competent, due to his activities has access to non-public information and at the same time is as independent and unbiased as possible.
Read Dmitry Steshin and Alexander Kots, the famous military correspondents of Komsomolskaya Pravda, read the no less famous specialist in non-humanitarian aid to Donbass from St. Petersburg Alexander Zhuchkovsky, whom we recently met quite by chance, read the wonderful Melitopol blogger Denis Seleznev. These are all very different people, with different views on Donbass, but they all meet the criteria that I cited.
The list, of course, is far from complete, but I have proposed the principle of its compilation.
Now as for draining, not draining. As a historian, I understand that the war in Donbass, and the Russian Spring in general, are large-scale historical events that have objective causes and prerequisites. They are not the result of the actions of some individuals, some kind of conspiracy, and therefore they cannot be controlled manually from offices, no matter how high these offices are.
Yes, indeed, the essence of the political part of the Minsk agreements is to integrate the Republic into the political body of Ukraine. But it is the republics, with their leaders, tanks, guns, tax systems, security forces, etc. If this is implemented, then it will indeed be a “cunning plan” that will be deadly for Ukraine, because it will first of all allow the powerful economy of Donbass to breathe deeply, which means it will only strengthen the potential of the republics.
But Ukrainians understand this no worse than we do, and will never agree to this. Those. here they will never give up their army as a guarantor of independence from Ukraine, but there no one with this army will take over the Republic.
Therefore, on paper the “cunning plan” may be good, but personally I don’t see the possibility of implementing it. Therefore, we need a plan “B”, not so tricky but more realistic. Whether it exists and what it consists of, I personally don’t know. But in fact, today we see that the Republics are getting further and further from Ukraine, and getting closer to Russia. The economy, finance, educational standards, even the political system are all gradually but steadily “ererified,” so to speak.
Well, I have to disappoint those who see a picture of a defenseless Donbass being beaten by punitive forces with the tacit consent of the authorities and the militia. This has nothing to do with reality.
“PolitNavigator”: How dangerous is being in Donetsk from the point of view of the average person? Shelling, armed people, etc.?
Alexander Vasiliev: I can say that in general, safety is not a key priority for the average person. Much more pressing are the issues of work and prices for consumer goods.
Today, a relatively narrow front-line zone is exposed to the danger of shelling. Everyone, of course, remembers the spontaneous protest of residents of those areas that are subject to regular shelling. After this, the authorities organized an evacuation, but relatively few responded. A significant number of people, with some kind of supernatural stubbornness, continue to cling to their homes, their property, and their usual habitat.
For example, I recently came across a case where a family with a child lost their house from shelling, moved, and is now looking for an apartment in the same area, and I quote, “because the child misses his friends in the new place.” This is difficult to assess, but it is a fact.
As for people with weapons, already in the spring, when I arrived, this was in complete order. No one just wanders around Donetsk with machine guns. I'll tell you another real case. I helped two Odessa militia friends I knew, raised some money for them to buy summer uniforms, because the software here, of course, is a bit difficult for the guys. Well, he asked me to take a photo in new clothes and with weapons to post on Facebook as a report. This turned out to be a whole problem. The weapon is in the armory and it’s so easy, when you want it, you can’t take it. Everything is strictly according to the regulations.
In general, there are certainly no more military people on the streets in Donetsk than in Sevastopol. Military trucks are seen with approximately the same frequency. In all the time I've been here, I've seen only a few armored vehicles. So just on the street, there was only one infantry fighting vehicle that was going about its business past the Donbass Arena.
“PolitNavigator”: You recently wrote on the social network that Odessa residents do not want to have nothing to do with the Kyiv anti-Maidan. Why?
Alexander Vasiliev: Well, I can’t speak for all Odessa residents, but there are many people who think the same way as me. Remember what Ostap Bender said to the former leader of the nobility: “My friend, you are sick organizational impotence and pale infirmity.” Only Anti-Maidan is organizational impotence, pale infirmity, plus cutting the budget.
In addition, the whole anti-Maidan discourse is that we will drive out the extremist fascists and live in a single country under the wise management of “strong business executives.” As they say: I saw your country and your business executives in the grave. I personally am not interested in Ukraine in any form, neither fascist nor anti-fascist. This, please, without Odessa and without me.
“PolitNavigator”: I heard this version - that shells do not fly into the center of Donetsk and the DPR institutions, because this is the property of the oligarchs, who agreed not to damage it. How true is this?
Alexander Vasiliev: And the other day I heard even better - shells do not fly into the center of Donetsk and DPR institutions because they are full of Ukrop spies, and they are afraid to hit them. I immediately remembered Stirlitz, who was worried that the Americans “would destroy their own institution” with their bombs.
In fact, off the top of my head I can name only 3 nationalized business centers that house DPR departments, and far from the most key ones. The rest are former administrative buildings that do not belong to any oligarchs.
“PolitNavigator”: What are the general sentiments about the old oligarchs in the DPR? Is Akhmetov really visiting? Is there a noticeable desire of the regionals to return and regain their former power?
Alexander Vasiliev: The mood is generally negative. The worst attitude is towards those who were directly associated with the “Family”. Everyone understands how these people acquired property, how they achieved their position, and therefore the rule “it’s not a waste to get the last thing out” applies to them. Many of the military and civilian leaders of the Republic are in fact representatives of the local middle class, who themselves suffered at one time from the local order and they are the first who are not interested in the return of the former masters and their rules of the game.
Kurchenko tried to take control of the fuel market of the republic, using his classic (and in my opinion the only) business scheme, the essence of which boiled down to building a financial pyramid (he did not have his own working capital in the required amount) and an administratively assigned monopoly. All this predictably led to several fuel crises, after which Kurchenko’s plans to return to Donbass on a white horse collapsed.
Another oligarch turned to the authorities of the republic with a request to return to him control over assets that were simply destroyed by his local junior partners, who, taking advantage of the situation, simply seized them. After a direct appeal to the authorities of the republic, the issue was resolved, the enterprise, vital for the DPR, is operating.
I have no information whether Akhmetov visits there directly. But more likely no than yes. In principle, a fairly respectful attitude towards him remained, as an authoritative person, but at the same time, by the fact that he did not support the uprising, he seriously disappointed many people. This is perceived as betrayal. But Akhmetov’s humanitarian aid really helped to survive the difficult winter and this is also taken into account.
Basically, all the rumors that Akhmetov somehow controls the two most famous Donetsk units, “Oplot” or “Vostok,” appeared after his residence was placed under guard at the very beginning of the uprising to avoid looting. But in reality this was done in order to avoid the outbreak of “mayhem” that could follow. This could become a kind of negative signal: “if this can be done to the most respected person in Donbass, then it means this can be done to everyone.” There is a logic to this, which is often not clear to an outside observer.
Sometimes you can hear about one or another functionary of the republics, military or civilian, that before the war he worked in the business structures of certain oligarchs, Akhmetov, Taruta, etc. Well, our analysts, as they say now “sofa-wise,” draw far-reaching conclusions from this. However, you need to understand how Donbass was structured in principle. Here everything was tied to large financial and industrial groups, and it was difficult to make a career outside of them. Moreover, today these people act completely independently of their past connections, in completely different conditions. And I don’t know anyone who would like to return to their previous, subordinate position in the local hierarchy. Relatively speaking, these people are ready to conduct a dialogue on equal terms with the collective Akhmetov, but they certainly have no desire to become their subordinates.
“PolitNavigator”: What is the mood among the population? How many are ready to return to Ukraine “if only everything would end quickly”?
Alexander Vasiliev: The most popular point of view on the future of the Republic is the desire to integrate into the Russian Federation according to the Crimean scenario. At the same time, many do not believe in its reality for Donbass. Also popular are the ideas that the DPR should integrate into some larger units - from unification with the LPR, to the creation of Greater Novorossiya from Kharkov to Tiraspol. People here are accustomed to thinking on a grand scale; even in Ukraine it was cramped for them, and most of them are ready to tolerate the territory of “certain regions” as a temporary phenomenon. In general, returning to the borders of the region is a minimum program for the vast majority of citizens.
Those who do not accept the Republic, according to my estimates, range from 5 to a maximum of 10%. For obvious reasons, it is quite difficult to determine their exact number using sociological methods. Another maximum 10% are ready for the format prescribed in the Minsk agreements - i.e. special status within federal Ukraine.
According to my observations, the main “gains of the revolution” for Donbass were its Russian identity and its armed forces, as a guarantor of identity. People, reluctantly, will be able to sacrifice everything else. But not this. People also clearly understand that their well-being is connected with the functioning of heavy industry, which is also perceived here as a kind of value and really has a strong influence on society and its mentality. Hopes for the revival of this industry are also associated primarily with the Russian Federation.
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