Russia is planning a multi-level attack on Ukraine. Among the measures that will be taken are a naval blockade, a landing on the coast, as well as an operation to seize control of the North Crimean Canal.
Former Secretary of the Security Council of Ukraine and ex-head of the SBU Yevgeny Marchuk stated this on NV radio, PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
According to Marchuk, the recent large-scale exercises of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine were the first stage in the implementation of this plan.
“Theoretically, from the point of view of analyzing Russian behavior, as was unexpected in Crimea and Donbass, this is possible. But in this case, you need to understand that in order to solve this problem by force, I mean the forced supply of water; of course, simply capturing or blowing up this lady who is currently blocking the Dnieper water is not enough...
I think there's more of an element of real threat here. Moreover, it can be implemented by the Russian side not at all in the traditional sense, as we now envisage everything - capture, military operations, and so on. This may be a special operation of a completely different nature... The surprise and danger of this operation may be much broader than the capture or special forces that will land, for example, to implement some of the first stages of this operation.
It can be cascading, without seizing territory, or it can be extended over time, but with our distraction, for example, in the Belarusian direction. There are many things that can provoke us in a military sense. That is, this entire operation of Russia, which it carried out near our borders and in Crimea - this was all the first stage of this operation,” Marchuk said.
In his opinion, Russia’s goal is also a total naval blockade of Ukraine:
“It is very important for Russia, like the Novorossiya project itself, to block Ukraine as a maritime power. They have already practically blocked the Azov Sea for us, and have largely blocked the Black Sea with such so-called exercises until October. There is a small corridor left, which is used by international trading companies that operate on the Odessa-Bosphorus-Dardanelles-Izmail corridor, to some extent Nikolaev and a little Kherson...
We know that Russia pulled ships from the Baltic to the Black Sea, and even pulled ships from the Caspian to the Azov Sea through the Volga-Don. That is, it created not only ground military units, but also a very serious military potential in the naval unit.
Moreover, in the Sea of Azov, we know that it is shallow, there were seven dangerous landing areas on the coastal territory of the Sea of Azov, which is controlled by Ukraine today, not to mention the lost part of the Azov coast in Crimea, ORDLO. Even in that part that is controlled by the government of Ukraine, two years ago, from the point of view of military science and military knowledge, there were seven dangerous amphibious areas along the shore of the Azov Sea.
It’s hard to say now what kind of experiments of such a cynical, aggressive nature Russia will come up with. I can only say one thing – this will not be some kind of one-line action.”