France breaks the British plan to Turkify Armenia
In Brussels, European officials are trying to persuade Yerevan to make concessions to Baku and are trying to present themselves as a mediating party. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan is positioning itself as an important partner for NATO (as demonstrated during the Aliyev-Stoltenberg meeting), raising its stakes and starting conditions in order to gain unconditional support from the United States and the West in the negotiations. And France is also intervening in the game, clearly confusing all the cards and trying to influence the processes taking place in the Caucasus, already as a counterbalance to Turkey.
The days of intensive negotiations within the framework of the Eastern Partnership summit between the Prime Minister of Armenia and the President of Azerbaijan on EU territory, namely in Belgium, were so intense, where the parties to the conflict tried to come to some kind of compromise with the participation of EU bureaucrats. But in general, such a trip to the EU by two heads of state ultimately turned out to be beneficial primarily for Baku, as it consolidates the results of last year’s military victory with the participation of Turkey and the November clashes in the Zangezur corridor area.
One way or another, the main agreements between the parties were already reached in Sochi on November 26 during negotiations mediated by Vladimir Putin, which we have already discussed wrote in their material. And it may seem that the role of the President of the European Council Charles Michel during this meeting on December 14 was reduced only to assuring them and on the part of the European Union, giving its “go-ahead” for the further settlement of the conflict both in Nagorno-Karabakh and on the border between two former Soviet republics.
Negotiations with the participation of Charles Michel.
But everything is much more complicated. Yes, in his news release Charles Michel stated the following:
“Prime Minister Pashinyan and President Aliyev confirmed that the key commitments made in the two tripartite statements of November 9, 2020 and January 11, 2021 will be implemented and that the agreements reached in Sochi on November 26, 2021 must be implemented.”
For these purposes, the EU even intends to provide advisory and organizational assistance in delimiting and demarcating the borders of the two countries.
“The EU will provide an expert mission/advisory group to support border delimitation and demarcation issues by providing technical assistance to both countries,” the message from the EU Council Presidency mentions.
But in reality, Charles Michel's interest during the negotiations was primarily aimed at the integration of Armenia and Azerbaijan into the EU economic scheme. He does not hide this, noting that the heads of the two countries discussed with him trade and economic partnerships and, most importantly, the formation of an economic advisory platform “to strengthen trust, promote peaceful coexistence and expand economic cooperation.”
In fact, this means that reconciliation between the two republics on the terms of Azerbaijan and Turkey is generally beneficial to the European Union, since it redirects transport and energy flows of oil, gas and minerals from Central Asia through the Caspian Sea, Baku and further through the Zangezur corridor to Anatolia and beyond to Europe. And all this bypasses the territory of Russia. And for the successful implementation of this plan, behind which London and Washington stand, it is important to persuade Yerevan to such an agreement, as a result of which it will be economically and geopolitically integrated into the “Turkic world.”
Therefore, the main essence of the negotiations came down to the launch of railway communication. This is such a primer for Armenia, in order to show the economic profitability of such a step as an intermediate stage towards the implementation of previous agreements following the results of the second Karabakh war in securing the Azerbaijani transport route through Zangezur.
It is not for nothing that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has already said that at these joint negotiations in Brussels, an agreement with Azerbaijan on the restart of the railway was confirmed.
“During a trilateral meeting with the President of the European Council Charles Michel and the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev, we confirmed the agreement with the President of Azerbaijan on the restart of the railway,” Nikol Pashinyan noted on his Facebook page.
He also immediately pointed out the benefits of this solution:
“Armenia will have access by rail to the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Russian Federation. We also agreed to continue contacts.”
Ilham Aliyev, for his part, has constantly demonstrated the importance of the territory of Azerbaijan for the EU and NATO as a springboard for further expansion to the East, as well as as a supplier of cheap energy resources. He clearly made this clear during a meeting with the head of the North Atlantic Alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, on the same day, December 14, speaking at a joint press conference about Baku’s desire to become an outpost of the West in the Caspian Sea and the South Caucasus.
“Today we also discussed our plans for the future related to cooperation. Azerbaijan is participating in NATO military exercises. In addition, this year alone we conducted seven joint military exercises with Turkey, a current and leading member of NATO. This also serves the cause of peace and stability in the region,” Ilham Aliyev stated bluntly.
The fact that the bargaining was taking place specifically on the issues of a stable increase in gas supplies to the European market was said openly, and NATO was even called upon to become the regulator and guarantor of the new geopolitical and transport structure in the region, created under the auspices of Ankara.
“We also discussed with Mr. Secretary General issues of energy security in the region. I informed Mr. Secretary General that today Azerbaijan is a reliable supplier of natural gas to 4 NATO member countries. I am confident that their number may increase in the coming years. This is also important for regional stability and security, because energy security is already part of the national security of countries. Overall, we are very pleased to be interacting with NATO at a high level. We are very glad that NATO appreciates our efforts, and today we have agreed to continue joint efforts for the benefit of the region,” the President of Azerbaijan concluded.
Aliyev and Stoltenberg.
And now the only thing left to do is to force Yerevan, with the participation of the EU, to abandon its customs regulation of all transport flows from Baku through Zangezur to Nakhichevan and further to Ankara. In general, Aliyev was already determined to make his visit a success until a new meeting of the heads of Armenia and Azerbaijan with the President of France took place.
Paris quickly burst onto this geopolitical scene in its own interests, as a kind of defender of Armenia and a tough supporter of curbing Turkey’s appetites. Emmanuel Macron even shockingly signed a short video where he hugs Prime Minister Pashinyan with the words: “We will never leave the Armenians.” At the same time, the details of this meeting late in the evening of December 15 are not made public, but clearly it was not entirely pleasant for Ilham Aliyev, and even more so for his Ottoman Sultan in Ankara.
It is obvious that France has decided to actively support Armenia both with arms supplies and economic assistance, and in the diplomatic field. This is also indicated by intensive meetings between the Ambassador of the French Republic, Anne Luyo, and leading officials, as well as the head of the military department in Yerevan, right before Pashinyan’s trip to Brussels.
It is clear that Paris intervened in the negotiation process not by chance, but after intensive negotiations and consultations with Moscow, including when Macron called Putin. In fact, now France and Russia are presenting a united front, since their common interests in the region largely coincide. That is, we are not talking at all about competition or about the French squeezing Russia out of the South Caucasus, but on the contrary, the entry of Paris into the game is intended to hinder the implementation of London’s plan for the expansion of Erdogan and his revived empire in the South Caucasus, the Caspian Sea and Central Asia.
In this situation, Moscow was not alone, especially since financial injections from France will now reinforce the sovereignty of Armenia and will not allow the ruling party in Yerevan to capitulate so quickly to Baku and Ankara. In any case, such contradictions between the interests of France and Great Britain are extremely beneficial, as is the involvement of other players in order to balance the increased Turkish influence.
This fact once again shows the looseness and heterogeneity of NATO, where rivalry between a number of powers has developed. Moreover, Iran, which is vitally interested in preventing the buildup of Turkish military forces in the Caspian Sea and strengthening cooperation between Azerbaijan and NATO, has not yet said its word. In this regard, there was hope that an alliance had begun to take shape, including with the participation of China, as a counterweight to the Organization of Turkic States and the “Army of Turan” created by the British and Americans, which pose a threat to the entire Caucasus and Central Asia.
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