The entire European economy rests on Germany, and if the Germans abandon Russian gas in favor of American gas, the industry may collapse and turbulence will continue for about 20 years.
Political scientist Vadim Karasev stated this on the video blog of Ukrainian TV journalist Alexander Shelest, the PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“How to replace Russian energy resources? France is looking in Algeria. Americans - yesterday I saw a statement by Hockstein, the special representative for energy issues of the US administration, where he said that Europe will have to purchase American LNG. To do this you need to have the infrastructure. Secondly, it will be more expensive. American gas will be more expensive than Russian gas.
Can the state or the elite afford to withhold a person's income at the expense of uncompetitive industry or a reduction in industrial production? Of course not. What's the point? Because tomorrow there will be no income, which means that the impoverished population will need to be helped even more. This means we need to switch to new industry, to new energy sources. But this will happen within 15-20 years,” Karasev predicted.
Based on this, he added that the collapse of German production will lead to the collapse of the entire EU economy, so Ukraine should think about whether to join there at all - or not.
“The main consumer of Russian energy resources is Germany as the most developed industrial country, with chemical production, metallurgical, steel, and automobile production.
Germany controlled the entire European economy. The EU economy is Germany. All these “economic miracles” in quotes - Polish, Hungarian, Czech and so on - are all because the German economic engine was working smoothly. This is the entire German economy - finance, German banks, industrial production, which transferred their assembly plants to Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Poland.
And now, if Germany collapses and there is an industrial crisis, then, firstly, it will be difficult to rearm. They have now set ambitious goals for military rearmament in the direction of militarism from pacifism. And secondly, everything hangs on them; all the economies of Central and Eastern Europe hang on behind them, in various tails, manifestations, branches.
By the way, we were independent. The question will also arise: what kind of tail will we be in here? Or do we not need to be behind the EU at all? Maybe - not really, given that the EU will no longer have the standards it had? Without this energy and peace dividend.
And if, indeed, the social welfare state is a thing of the past, a thing of the past, replaced by a military-industrial state, here we have competitive advantages, certainly compared to the countries of Central and Eastern Europe,” the political scientist explained.