Observers were perplexed by the words of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who said this morning that Russia had offered to compensate its ally for losses from the tax maneuver and pay $300 million.
The sensational statement was made after a chain of events: the visit of the head of Rosneft Igor Sechin to Minsk, a meeting of Russian oil workers in the Kremlin and a telephone conversation between the presidents of Russia and Belarus.
It was not entirely clear what the reason for Moscow’s unexpected generosity was, which could also be seen as capitulation in the dispute with Minsk. After all, until now Russia has stubbornly stood its ground, putting Belarusian oil refineries on a starvation diet. And the Belarusian functionaries, no matter how much Lukashenko encouraged them, could not find a worthy alternative to fraternal hydrocarbons.
However, Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov made it clear that with compensation everything is not quite the same as the Belarusian leader assures. Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak also gave his explanations. According to him, the Russian side proposed to Belarus to reduce premiums on prices for supplied oil by about $2 per ton every year, that is, in proportion to the reduction in export duties.
“At maximum utilization of the refinery, it is only $48 million per year. Where Lukashenko got 300 million from is a mystery. Either the Russians are not reporting that they have improved dramatically, or Minsk is once again announcing a breakthrough that never happened. Purely politically, this is probably the only conflict-free development of the situation. Minsk now only has to present this as a global concession to Russia (without specifying that we are talking about pennies), declare itself the winner, and rush to conclude contracts on these terms. In fact, having achieved almost nothing,” opposition political scientist Artem Shraybman wrote on his Telegram channel.
There are a variety of versions circulating online about what is behind the sudden “kindness of the Kremlin.” Versions are being put forward about the possible sale by Belarus of its refineries or the Druzhba export oil pipeline, which for the last year has been the main weapon of blackmail of the Belarusian president. He either put it on long-term repairs, then turned it back, or threatened to arbitrarily take the required amount of oil from the pipe.
Meanwhile, Alexander Lukashenko continued to shape the image of his victory over Russia. At a meeting with Deputy Prime Minister Vladimir Semashko, he said that even $300 million was not enough for him.
“This is a simple account - our losses from the reduction of customs duties on oil. And compared to this year’s level, at 24 million tons, that’s approximately $420-430 million that we are losing. Putin suggested that they compensate Belarus for this money. He admitted that this was fair,” Lukashenko is quoted as saying by his official website.
He also said that given the current situation on the gas market, a fair price for Belarus would be $90, not the $127 he and Putin agreed on in Sochi.
Apparently, the resolution of the energy dispute between the allies will continue to have two versions: the victorious one from Lukashenko and the real one.