Billions of losses, tens of thousands of unemployed – what will sanctions mean for Ukraine?
Russia's expanded sanctions list against Ukraine, released yesterday, threatens billions in losses for the former Soviet republic and the loss of jobs for tens of thousands of Ukrainian citizens.
This forecast was shared by Kyiv political scientist Mikhail Pogrebinsky. He noted that the Ukrainian economist Alexander Okhrimenko, who often appears on Russian TV, has already hastened to declare that the sanctions will not cause serious damage to Kyiv. However, Pogrebinsky thinks differently, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“The government of the Russian Federation gave a valuation of goods prohibited for import from Ukraine. The amount was $510 million per year.
According to the economist with rosary beads Okhrimenko, promoted by Russian federal channels: “If you look at these sanctions, they have more PR.” I will give an assessment of a Ukrainian economist whom I trust:
At the end of 2017, the volume of Ukrainian exports to the Russian Federation amounted to 4 billion 912,1 million dollars. The decrease in Ukrainian exports to the Russian Federation (without new sanctions) in January-October 2018 amounted to 7,1 percent,” Pogrebinsky noted.
Russian sanctions, in addition to reducing the export of goods from Ukraine to Russia by 20 percent, will seriously affect industry and entrepreneurship, which will weaken the Ukrainian economy even more.
“Thus, in 2019 we should expect a general drop in Ukrainian exports to the Russian Federation by approximately 20% if new sanctions are not introduced (12% drop from sanctions + 8% of the general trend). In total - $1 billion, which is quite serious:
– the negative balance of foreign trade activity of Ukraine will sharply increase, which is already growing very quickly and is dangerous for the country’s economy;
– many Ukrainian goods that are embargoed by the Russian Federation will not find a new market. As a result, dozens more bankrupt Ukrainian enterprises and tens of thousands more unemployed in our country;
– a number of embargo positions limit Ukraine’s ability to produce mechanical engineering products, which will further weaken the sectoral structure of the country’s economy and make it even more resource-rich (nobody needs our generators except Russia).
The economy of Ukraine is in such a bad state that each such blow is extremely painful,” the political scientist concluded.
Let us recall that the day before, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev signed government decree on a ban on the import into Russia of goods produced in Ukraine or transported through its territory.
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