Poroshenko’s mobilization may affect from 20 thousand to 20 million people
Moscow - Kyiv, July 23 (Navigator, Mikhail Stamm) - Many of those mobilized will be sent to the Donetsk, Lugansk regions, and in the event of an open war with Russia - to the Crimea. According to experts interviewed by Kommersant, the “war party” is gaining the upper hand in Poroshenko’s entourage, betting on the complete destruction of the “separatists of the southeast.”
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As Rada deputy from the Batkivshchyna party Gennady Moskal explained, “those liable for military service who are subject to the current conscription will be sent to the anti-terrorist operation zone in the Lugansk and Donetsk regions.” According to the parliamentarian, we are talking about about 20 thousand people. Full mobilization could affect up to 20 million Ukrainian citizens, but this option is not yet being considered.
Kiev military expert Igor Levchenko said that full mobilization would be announced “only in the event of direct military aggression.” “Those who are called up now will defend the border. And not only in the east, but also in the south of Ukraine, including in the Crimea region,” says Mr. Levchenko.
“Initially, Poroshenko was perceived as a representative of the “party of peace,” says Ukrainian political scientist Mikhail Pogrebinsky. “I think he is aware that there cannot be a purely military solution to the problem. But the president is under enormous pressure from hardliners who demand not to stop halfway, not to make any concessions to the “separatists,” to put the squeeze on.”
According to the expert, pressure on Petro Poroshenko comes from several sides at once. It is provided, firstly, by representatives of the Batkivshchyna party occupying key positions in the state. Secondly, “oligarchs who make money from the war and use it to strengthen their positions.” The most famous of them is Igor Kolomoisky. Thirdly, the “patriotically minded” Kiev intelligentsia, who set the tone on the Maidan. She perceives the conflict in the southeast as a historic chance to strengthen Ukrainian statehood and “finally separate from Russia.” And finally, fourthly, the United States, which does not want the emergence of a second Transnistria in the Donbass and is pushing Kyiv to take decisive action.
According to those surveyed, this will continue until the fall, as long as Ukrainian elites and public opinion believe in the possibility of a quick and unconditional victory.
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