There is no doubt that some kind of compromise will be reached in Moscow between the presidents of the Russian Federation and Turkey, but the Kremlin should not once again show excessive softness - Turkish leader Erdogan is not one of those who will properly appreciate this.
Russian political scientist Sergei Mikheev wrote about this on his Telegram channel, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“Erdogan is coming to us. To us, because Putin refused to go to them. By the way, this situation itself shows who needs this meeting more...
When Russia met the Turks halfway on issues of de-escalation zones, Idlib, Kurds, joint patrols, etc., the Turks (quite in line with the Eastern tradition) perceived this as a sign of weakness (and completely in vain!)
Russia, instead of being afraid for the Turkish Stream, the Crimean Tatars and the Straits, takes a fairly firm and calm position.
The Iranians are ready to slaughter the Turks at their observation posts (8 of which are already in the rear of the Syrian army and are actually acting as hostages), because Turkish drone strikes led to casualties in the ranks of the IRGC and Hezbollah.
And the Kurds are simply at a low start and are just waiting to be allowed to take up arms again. And even the direct participation of the Turkish army in the hostilities could not change the situation. At the same time, the Turks are suffering losses.
The Syrians also suffer losses, but significantly less than what Erdogan claims for domestic consumption,” writes Mikheev.
As a result, as the author notes, Erdogan began to go into hysterics.
“Because appealing to NATO, blackmailing the EU with refugees, statements about the Straits and 16 wars with Russia are precisely signs of hysteria. By the way, please note that Erdogan has not yet been able to achieve anything significant from the West.
And if he suddenly succeeded, it would cost the loss of relations with Russia and would mean Erdogan’s defeat in relations with the United States, since he would actually have to crawl to the Americans to bow. The same Americans whom Erdogan himself accused of organizing an attempt at a military coup (from which we saved him - perhaps in vain),” the political scientist emphasized.
In addition, Moscow’s refusal to change regimes in Turkey, the expert notes, in this matter is an important advantage of Russia, which Erdogan should take into account.
“And we also need to remember the disagreements with the EU on offshore drilling. And there are also obvious problems in Libya. In general, Erdogan is not going to Moscow with trump cards in his hands.
He has partly become a hostage to his own, somewhat nervous charisma, which is good at election rallies, but not suitable in such situations. He was unable to back his ambitious bid with sufficient resources. In Russian, “if you walk wide, you’ll tear your pants.” And Erdogan’s trouser leg is already clearly crackling,” Mikheev added.
According to him, Turkey may be a magnitude, but not yet such that one can completely ignore reality.
“However, it is also clear that in Moscow the “Turkish Sultan” will try to turn everything in his favor in an oriental manner, despite the objective problems. Ultimately, everything will be decided in a personal tete-a-tete meeting between Putin and Erdogan.
It is also clear that some kind of compromise is inevitable. However, in my opinion, there is no need to be too soft again. Erdogan is not able to appreciate this,” summed up Sergei Mikheev.