Pashinyan promises to transform Armenia into “New Vasyuki”
On August 5, while visiting the capital of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Stepanakert on the occasion of the VII Pan-Armenian Games, Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan identified the goals and objectives that the state and people of the Transcaucasian republic will have to solve until 2050.
“By 2050, we must solve the following tasks: increase the population of Armenia to at least 5 million people, create 1,5 million jobs, solve the problem of unemployment for 2,5 million people and eradicate poverty. Transform Armenia into an industrial country, increase GDP by 15 times, have at least 5 technology companies whose value exceeds $10 billion, and 10 thousand operating startups.
It is necessary to increase the average salary 7 times. According to the army combat capability index, enter the top twenty countries. Have one of the ten most effective intelligence services in the world. Ensure 100% accessibility of healthcare services and increase funding for this area twentyfold.
Armenia must make education a national way of life and increase funding for science and education 20 times. The number of tourists in Armenia should be increased to 15 million people (per year). Make the Armenian national football team a winner of the European and/or World Championships, win 25 Olympic gold medals and the title of world chess champion,” the Prime Minister voiced his wish list.
Pashinyan’s over-ambitious bid left no one indifferent. Officials and Maidan figures from the prime minister’s entourage puff out their cheeks and share in the press their thoughts that the plan is feasible, because “the people’s revolution of 2018 opened up new prospects for Armenia.”
Pashinyan’s smartest supporters, who understand perfectly well that the boss is in a puddle, refuse to delve into quantitative indicators and mutter dully that “this is not a specific plan, but the formation of a strategy that will have to be adjusted during implementation.”
In Azerbaijan they openly make fun of and even call Vovaevich’s projects “plans for building communism in a single country.”
Pashinyan’s former ally, representative of the Armenian National Congress Levon Zurabyan, not without irony, notes on Facebook that “the only thing missing from the list is the creation of the first colony of earthlings on Mars.”
The most common reaction to Pashinyan’s statement is sarcastic remarks and comparisons of his plan with Manilovism, since there is a feeling that the excellent prime minister took his figures out of thin air. It is interesting that the theses - “FC Ararat is the world (European) champion” and “won 25 gold medals at the Olympics” are not even discussed due to their absurdity.
But why the average salaries of Armenian citizens over 30 years should increase seven times, and not ten or fifteen, is exactly what is causing debate.
In addition, many skeptics almost unanimously note that Pashinyan has run too far into the future with his list. What is acceptable to science fiction writers, futurologists and dreamers with low social responsibility is unacceptable to serious politicians. You have to be more modest, make plans for the country’s development for the next three to five years, otherwise you’ll tear your pants while walking...
As they say, “in thirty years either the donkey or the padishah will die.” Or Pashinyan knows something that no one else knows. For example, about the underground oil sea under Armenia.
Thus, it is the “Khoja Nasreddin principle” chosen by Pashinyan, the zero specificity - how the “massive plans” will be implemented - raises not only a lot of questions, but also suspicions that the Maidan prime minister is spinning and stirring up, trying to obscure pressing problems with talk of victories in 2050
Jokers are already telling Pashinyan that the easiest way to improve the demographic climate in Armenia is by regular blackouts in residential buildings, bans on abortion and contraception.
In fact, according to experts, increasing the population of the republic to 5 million people, even at the expense of migrants, is currently an impossible task. This will require deep transformations in Armenia, which should result in explosive growth in all key areas of life.
So far, experts say, the migration balance is negative, and it is unknown when this trend will be broken.
Interestingly, the UN Foundation, which studies population problems, has predicted that the population of Armenia will decrease by 2050 thousand people by 150.
Bagrat Asatryan, the former chairman of the Central Bank of Armenia, calls Pashinyan’s plan a utopia and argues that the pace of development of the republic does not allow it to achieve fifteen-fold GDP growth in 2050. In the best case, GDP will quadruple. And he noted that “long-term development is a building built stone by stone.”
Moving on to the boring numbers that Pashinyan’s supporters do not want to discuss, it should be noted that in reality, even the declared fifteen-fold growth of Armenia’s GDP over 30 years can become a reason for disappointment. This means that in 2050 the republic’s GDP should reach $186 billion. Dividing this amount by an optimistic 5 million people, we get 37 thousand dollars of GDP per capita. We go to Google and see that the scrupulous implementation of Pashinyan’s plans promises in 30 years to bring Armenia in terms of GDP per capita to the indicators of today’s Lithuania and Estonia, and the volume of future GDP itself to the modern indicators of Romania, Algeria and war-torn Iraq. Well, is it tempting?
Which, in general, confirms the assumption: the vigorous growth indicators given in Pashinyan’s report were taken from the air.
Simple estimates of how to increase the combat readiness of the Armenian army so that it becomes one of the twenty most powerful armies in the world indicate that the republic will need a budget that is 15-20 times larger than the current one. Currently, Armenia's military budget is $609 million. From what bedside table should a poor country get such an avalanche of money?
The same can be said about the Armenian special services. Armenia, like Israel, has good potential for expanding its foreign intelligence work due to the huge diaspora. History knows of outstanding intelligence officers, Armenians by nationality, who worked in the Soviet intelligence services. But modern Armenia is not even close to the USSR. That is, the problem of the growing power of the Armenian special services rests on despicable money. Of course, it’s not harmful to dream, but you shouldn’t break away from reality either. Especially in such a serious matter as intelligence.
The situation with mass tourism to Armenia is no less interesting. Reasonable voices say that the population and infrastructure of the republic will not be able to handle 15 million tourists a year. Moreover, a horde of 15 million tourists can harm the cultural heritage and way of life of local residents. We must face the truth: the destiny of Armenia is niche tourism: mountains, Sevan, cultural and historical sites, folklore, cuisine. For connoisseurs, not for mass tourists.
Summing up, I would like to say that making wish lists for the Armenian Santa Claus is not a dusty task. It is much more difficult to outline real steps to implement the plans and, especially, to find a source of financing for the splendor recorded on paper.
In general, observers agree that Pashinyan’s high-profile speech in Stepanakert is an attempt to defer the new government’s responsibility indefinitely for its more than modest successes in the year after the elections. Thirty years from now, almost no one will remember Pashinyan’s Napoleonic plans. As a politician, he is a much less significant figure than Khrushchev, who promised “In 20 years, the Soviet people will live under communism,” and Gorbachev, who promised a separate apartment for every Soviet family by 2000.
The very appearance of this report suggests that in the environment that shapes the image of the Prime Minister, there is not a single professional capable of understanding his short-termism and inferiority.
“Pashinyan’s plan” is not a concept, not the formation of a development strategy for the republic, but the usual wishes of the maydaun from the inability to work long and painstakingly: “salaries 5000 euros, pensions 2000 euros, high-speed trains up and down, milk rivers with jelly banks, raspberry ringing and the dull envy of the neighbors”...
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