If Russia supports incumbent head of state Igor Dodon in the upcoming presidential elections in Moldova, it will be drawn into “a new geopolitical confrontation on the side of a corrupt and ineffective regime that may face mass protests immediately after the elections.”
Moldovan political scientist Vlad Kulminsky, close to Dodon’s main rival in the upcoming elections, pro-Western politician Maia Sandu, writes about this in an article for the liberal website Carnegie Moscow Center, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“No matter how hard Dodon tries to present the vote as another choice between East and West, Moldovan society is now concerned about completely different topics - primarily corruption and degradation of state institutions. And in these matters, the current president has long discredited himself,” writes Kulminsky.
He argues that one cannot believe Dodon’s promises to “resolve the Transnistrian conflict”, to prevent “the loss of statehood”, “surrendering the country to the West and ousting Russia from the region.”
“It is difficult to take these promises seriously if you understand where the border of what is possible for any Moldovan leader lies. The Moldovan president will not sign a settlement of the Transnistrian conflict according to the confederal model - this is unacceptable for the majority of Moldovan society, not to mention the limited presidential powers.
For the same reasons, the Moldovan president does not initiate a revision of the Association Agreement with the EU and will not bring the country into the EAEU - the risk of mass protests is too great. The same goes for Dodon’s promises to legalize Russia’s military presence, turn the Transnistrian settlement into a model for the conflict in Donbass, and make Moldova a state “in the middle” between West and East, with limited sovereignty and foreign policy. All these are impossible promises, fraught with loss of power,” writes Kulminsky.
In his opinion, the next president of Moldova must play a technical role - to create conditions for holding early parliamentary elections, in which a stable coalition capable of forming a government will be created.