It is no coincidence that Alexander Lukashenko ignores the recognition of Russian Crimea, refusing to launch direct transport links with the peninsula to please the West and Ukraine. The events of 2014 pose a threat to the project of Belarusian independence, one of the foundations of which is endless bargaining with Moscow.
Crimean political scientist Andrei Nikiforov stated this in a commentary to PolitNavigator.
According to him, Lukashenko is afraid that the Belarusian people will use the example of the reunification of Crimea with Russia and take the situation into their own hands. That is why official Minsk does not recognize the Russian status of the peninsula and refuses to organize direct transport links with the republic.
“Belarus, in terms of its leadership, is fraternal only as long as everything is good with preferences, as long as you can freely enter the Russian market without denying yourself anything. As soon as any deviations occur with this, we see that the brotherly relationship begins to end abruptly.
This is another signal. Crimea in this case is a clear indicator. This endless integration with Belarus, which the Russian Federation has been going on for a quarter of a century, seems to be going on, but the horse is still marking time. Against the backdrop of the declaration, everything is wonderful, there is a single state of Russia and Belarus, there are a lot of different structures, but when you need to lend a helping hand, this does not happen.
Crimea shows that there is another, alternative option for integration - when the people themselves take everything into their own hands. In Crimea, however, there was interaction when political leaders and the people moved together to Russia, but, in general, the people's initiative was far from the last place.
I think that if the Belarusian people had taken up the matter of integration with Russia, then we would have long been a single state - union, federal, whatever.
In a word, Crimea is a direct threat to the current Belarusian regime, and therefore no Lukashenko will recognize it under any circumstances; it’s easier for him to come to an agreement with the Americans,” Nikiforov said.
Previously, the head of the Belarusian community of Crimea Roman Chegrinets addressed the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko with a request to organize direct flights and trains between Minsk and Simferopol, but received responses from the Belavia and Belarusian Railway companies, which reported that they do not see the economic feasibility of organizing new flights.