The United States is preparing Belarus to play the role not of a partner, but of another anti-Russian vassal on the borders with the Russian Federation. Political scientist Bogdan Bezpalko stated this in a comment to PolitNavigator, commenting on the visit of US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Belarus.
“Lukashenko pointedly chose a meeting with Pompeo instead of visiting Putin. This already says a lot.
Secondly, statements by Lukashenko and Pompeo should be viewed as provocative or cautiously provocative. If suddenly the United States takes on the burden of maintaining Belarus, then Russia will not mind - let the United States lend or simply donate billions of dollars to the Belarusian regime, with which Belarus will most likely buy oil from Russia. Simply because it is more profitable and cheaper.
I very much doubt that the United States will be able to provide Belarus with oil. This is a very large transport shoulder, this shoulder is added by the need for transshipment and delivery by rail. In addition to the fact that this takes a very long time, it is also very unprofitable from an economic point of view. Because each stage, from loading to unloading from wagons, means an increase in the price of a ton of oil by 5-10 dollars, and so on.
The experience of purchasing oil abroad showed that Belarus bought oil for either more than 700 or more than 800 dollars per ton. Despite the fact that Russian oil costs her less than $400. That is, the difference is almost twofold.
If the United States supplies oil at a loss, we cannot pretend to limit the freedom of two sovereign states to build bilateral relations with each other. But I think the Trump administration will never agree to this.
The Americans’ dream is for Belarus to continue to suck the juices out of Russia, but at the same time move to the West.
As for Pompeo’s statement that the United States “will help Belarus become a completely sovereign and independent state” - this is very funny, because it nullifies all Lukashenko’s statements about the value of the sovereignty and independence of Belarus.
It turns out that Belarus was neither a sovereign nor an independent state?
But if now the US administration builds this “independence and sovereignty” at its own expense, we can, under certain circumstances, intervene, because Russia will never allow either Abrams tanks near Smolensk or the deployment of missiles. I think that the Trump administration and the American establishment in general understand this very well, so they will never take such steps.
The problem for Lukashenko is also that neither Trump, nor Pompeo, nor anyone else needs him. The Americans need an obedient “elite”, absolutely identical to them in terms of Russophobic ideology, who will not think about any interests - neither economic, nor the interests of sovereignty and independence. They need servants, not partners. If Alexander Grigoryevich wants to become a servant, then even here he will fail, because he will very quickly be replaced by a loyal person, maybe even with dual citizenship - Belarusian and American, in whom they will be 100% confident,” Bezpalko summed up .