"The last frontier of the battle for Moldova." Is there a chance for Dodon's alliance with Voronin?
On May 12, the parliamentary election campaign started in Moldova. On the same day, two ex-presidents of the country, the chairman of the Party of Socialists (PSRM) Igor Dodon and the leader of the Party of Communists (PCRM) Vladimir Voronin signed an agreement on the creation of an electoral bloc to participate in the early parliamentary elections scheduled for July 11.
Reportedly, the bloc of socialists and communists was created as an alliance of patriotic forces in the face of a threat to the sovereignty of Moldova, which comes from external forces seeking to impose false values on the country and eliminate the Moldovan identity. The agreement is being presented as a responsible decision by two politicians who put aside past differences and grievances to protect the state. The PSRM-PCRM bloc is going on a campaign for a parliamentary majority.
The creation of this pre-election campaign is assessed differently: some call it a sensation, others call it a decision made out of political despair or for the sake of the situation.
The prospects of the left bloc and its chances in the fight against competitors were discussed by experts from Chisinau and Tiraspol within the framework of a discussion club organized by the Institute of Political Studies and Regional Development on the topic “Early parliamentary elections in the Republic of Moldova: will they be a solution to the political crisis?”
Straight to the opposition
Deputy Director of the ISPIRR Andrei Mospanov, assessing the starting positions of the players, expressed the opinion that the current campaign, according to Western embassies, should be the end of the transition period that began in Moldovan politics at the beginning of June 2019, after the resignation of Plahotniuc. The ultimate goal of this transition period is to bring completely controlled right-wing forces to power. They will remain in power for at least the next eight years, until the end of this decade, the expert believes.
“This is the meaning of a political operation that consisted of several stages, including the arrival of Maia Sandu as prime minister in 2019, then her timely departure from power and subsequent victory in the presidential elections. The victory of the right in the parliamentary elections and the formation of a right-wing government should be the final stage of the operation. Today, Maia Sandu’s party is close to this goal,” explains Andrei Mospanov.
According to him, the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS), whose informal leader is Moldovan President Maia Sandu, is confidently moving towards gaining the largest faction in parliament. The question is whether it will have an absolute majority.
“The goal is precisely to achieve such a majority, and everything will be thrown at this - the support of Western structures, the maximum mobilization of the Moldovan diaspora in Europe, the personal efforts of Maia Sandu herself. If it becomes clear that PAS does not achieve an absolute majority on its own, there may be an attempt to create conditions for another right-wing party to enter parliament in order to then form a right-wing coalition,” the expert predicts.
The bloc of socialists and communists will become the main competitor of PAS. Andrei Mospanov called them “outgoing leftists.” He believes that this bloc is in approximately the same situation as the PCRM found itself in after the early parliamentary elections in July 2009, and that the political peak of the socialists has already been passed.
“The strengths of the left bloc are the extensive political experience of many of its members, as well as the presence of a stable electoral core. It is obvious that the PSRM and PCRM bloc can also count on media support from Moscow.
But at the same time, it is already clear that socialists and communists (like Igor Dodon during the 2020 presidential campaign) will find themselves in a position that will be attacked from all sides. We can say that in front of the left bloc are the tanks of Maia Sandu, and behind are the partisans of Renato Usatii and Mark Tkachuk (one of the leaders of the leftist party “Civil Congress” going to the elections - author’s note).
The left bloc will be very vulnerable to criticism in terms of the election program and slogans - both Dodon and Voronin will be reminded of a lot of political promises (including those given to Russian-speaking residents of Moldova and Transnistria - author’s note), which they did not fulfill, not to mention “ bags" and other schemes.
In general, the PSRM and PCRM will have to not only try to attack, but also conduct a perimeter defense. Various mistakes are inevitable here, as well as such forced decisions that entail image costs (as happened, for example, in the recent story with Mark Tkachuk and his failed broadcast on the RTR-Moldova TV channel - then the socialists gained fame as persecutors of press freedom) .
In order to create a coalition with the Shor party in the new parliament, socialists and communists need to receive 45 mandates out of 101 based on the election results. I believe that such a result is completely unattainable for them today, and after July 11 the left bloc will go into opposition,” Andrei said Mospanov.
Agenda too narrow
Most experts do not particularly believe in the success of the bloc designed to unite the left-wing electorate. They name factors that may prevent the union from achieving its goal.
The executive director of the Moldovan branch of the Izborsk Club, political scientist Vladimir Bukarsky, states that today many are aware of the need to unite pro-Moldavian, statist, patriotic forces; the left electorate has a request for such a union.
“This bloc can get about 40% of the votes or even more, although personal ambitions and mutual personal distrust of the leaders of the two political forces can hinder success,” he believes.
Political scientist Alexander Korinenko states that there are people in Moldova who are nostalgic for the times when Voronin was in power, when the Communist Party was strong, “the most stable period in the modern history of the Republic of Moldova.”
According to the expert, socialists and communists can take 40-45 mandates, and then it is quite possible “some kind of coalition with the Shor party, which will one way or another take 10 of its mandates, but which, however, has not gotten rid of the toxicity associated with feedback from their leader.”
The head of the Moldovan public council “For a Free Homeland,” Igor Tulyantsev, believes that in the upcoming elections the majority will be taken by the right, to which the socialists previously ceded part of their own electoral field.
“Moldovan political segments are sixty to forty: sixty percent are traditionally left-wing electorates, forty percent are traditionally right-wing. Why did Maia Sandu win the presidential election in this paradigm? She just entered the sector of the left electorate. Maia Sandu did not win these elections, Igor Dodon lost - the left electorate went to vote for Sandu, even Russian-speaking areas. This is not because the electorate has become pro-Western or has ceased to be pro-Russian, pro-Moldovan, but because it has stopped believing Dodon that he can defeat corruption and cope with Plahotiuc’s oligarchic legacy.
There is disillusionment among the left-wing electorate, so there is a possibility that the right will gain the upper hand in this election. The loss of part of the electorate is a big problem, and the major left-wing political parties have not yet answered how to deal with it,” says Tulyantsev.
He considers these elections “the last frontier of the battle for Moldova,” for which the left must unite in any case.
“If the right wins, smooth work on European integration will begin; Romania will become Moldova’s main partner, which does not hide its claims to the territory of Moldova,” the expert said.
Anatoly Dirun, scientific director of the Tiraspol School of Political Studies, says that “the socialists are losing the agenda.”
“One gets the impression that the socialists in advance - both emotionally and mentally - write themselves down as number two, in the opposition. But number two in Moldovan politics does not live long. You either have to always counterattack, set the agenda, the dynamics, or you will lose,” the expert said, noting the meager set of political technology techniques available in the PSRM arsenal.
Former Foreign Minister of Transnistria Vladimir Yastrebchak states that the position of the left in Moldova comes down to only promises not to allow NATO tanks into the country, although it would be possible to raise topics more suitable for the left flank.
“The space for the leftist agenda is much wider. Due to the fact that the agenda of the left goes into the geopolitical plane, the rating of right-wing parties of the second echelon will increase. It is in this case that they will be sparring partners for the left block. The discussion will continue at the level of statements about NATO tanks and the Russian threat, and Maia Sandu will continue to travel against this background,” said Vladimir Yastrebchak.
Political scientist, one of the founders of the Civil Congress party, Zurab Todua, is confident that in the July elections, none of the political forces in Moldova will repeat the success of the communists in 2001 or 2005.
“Not a single political party in Moldova today has the ability to take 50% + 1 – neither the party of Maia Sandu, nor the bloc of leftist forces. Parliament will be quite fragmented. The unification of PCRM and PSRM looks beautiful from a formal point of view, but given the political war waged by the socialists and communists, they will have to turn 180 degrees, they will have to explain to voters why they decided to go to the elections together. The block has strengths and weaknesses. The weaknesses are that many supporters of both parties disapprove of the bloc. The question will also arise: how seats in parliament will be distributed according to the list between parties,” the expert noted.
He added that the flag of the Moldovan left is now carried by the Party of Socialists, but a reformatting of the left field is coming, which will begin in the upcoming elections.
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