Transnistria calls on Russia to respond to Romania's plans to deploy American medium-range missiles
The consequences of the denunciation of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty for regional security are being discussed in Tiraspol.
The INF Treaty between the USSR and the USA, which entered into force in June 1988 and made it possible to eliminate an entire class of weapons that pose the greatest threat to the world, has been an important element of the world security system for three decades.
Its action made it possible to curb the growth of armaments in Europe, East and South Asia.
There is an opinion that the US withdrawal from this Treaty at the beginning of August 2019 could upset the balance of power in different regions of the planet and lead to unpredictable consequences.
Due to its geopolitical and geostrategic position, Transnistria also finds itself at the intersection of possible lines of tension.
The Institute for Socio-Political Studies and Regional Development, during the round table “INF Treaty: Problems of Regional Security in the Light of the Worsening Situation in the World,” gathered expert opinions on what measures Moscow and Tiraspol could take to maintain the balance of power in the region and minimize threats, PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
Director of ISPIRR Igor Shornikov expressed concern that American-Romanian military cooperation poses a potential danger: Romania positions itself as the defender of the West at the gates of Asia and wants to please the United States in every possible way.
“I don’t think that there will be any protests among the Romanians if the United States asks them to mark their medium- and shorter-range missiles. Let's imagine that this happened. In the Black Sea region there are points where it can “blaze.” This is, in particular, Transnistria. If we remember 1992, Romania then participated in the war on the Dniester, albeit behind the scenes.
Now there is a certain balance of power here thanks to the Russian peacekeeping operation. The elimination of the INF Treaty and the possibility of deploying American missiles on Romanian territory leads to the fact that the peacekeeping operation, considered the most successful in world history, may be disavowed. And in conditions where there is no balance of power, the opposite side understands that it has leverage and can use it,” says Shornikov.
Russian expert, PIR Center consultant, one of the authors of the first Russian podcast on international security “Forcing Peace” Oleg Shakirov believes that the main task now is to prevent the deployment of medium- and shorter-range missiles in Europe.
“The United States, having withdrawn from the treaty, in mid-August tested a cruise missile classified as a weapon prohibited by the INF Treaty, using the Mk-41 universal launcher. The same installations are located at the American missile defense base in Romania and are being deployed in Poland. A new threat is emerging that needs to be responded to,” says Shakirov, who, however, is not inclined to regard the situation as a military-political crisis.
He recalled that Russia has put forward the idea of a moratorium on the deployment of medium- and shorter-range missiles not only in Europe, but also in other regions of the world.
“The idea of a moratorium is not bad, but no one in the West is reacting to it yet. There are other options for solving the problem, but it needs to be formalized somehow. The opportunity to avoid danger is real, but we see that misunderstanding persists, and a careless step by one of the parties can provoke an escalation of the situation.
I think it is necessary to conduct a dialogue along the Russia-NATO and Russia-Romania lines and achieve transparency. It’s easy to get out of the agreement, but negotiations and agreements on it take a huge amount of time,” the expert noted.
Commenting on assumptions that Russia, seeking to protect Transnistria if necessary, where about 270 thousand of its citizens live, could place its missiles here, Shakirov called “not to aggravate” and recalled that the situation on the banks of the Dniester is under control peacekeeping forces.
It should be noted here that Transnistria itself is not against permanently securing the Russian presence on the banks of the Dniester, and this position has been voiced. In 2010, the then President of the PMR, Igor Smirnov, said at a press conference in Moscow that the republic is ready - if Russia asks for it - to deploy Iskander operational-tactical missile systems on its territory in order to create a counterweight to American anti-missile missiles in Romania.
Young Pridnestrovian experts are very calm about the problem of the collapse of the INF Treaty and the military aspect of regional security.
For example, a student at the Institute of Public Administration, Law and Social Sciences of the Pridnestrovian State University, a representative of the “People’s Action” movement Evgeniy Kushchak believes that the use of any weapons today does not make sense at all, since “the world now uses methods such as cyber warfare and soft power strategy.”
“There is no need to physically destroy if you can subjugate. They will either reformat your operating systems, hardware, or you,” he says.
Head of the Tiraspol School of Political Studies Anatoly Dirun, on the contrary, believes that the basic factor in achieving victory in a particular direction is the “physical presence of a man with a gun.”
“Remove today the man with a gun who is standing at the exit from Bendery, on the border of Transnistria, and there will be nothing here: neither trade, nor our gentleman’s agreement with the European Union on exports from Pridnestrovie, nor visits of European delegations.
A man with a gun - those peacekeeper guys who stand at checkpoints along the Dniester - is the main guarantor of the physical security of Transnistria. And we must maintain this physical security at all levels, with each stage of development of society, taking into account new threats and risks.
And topics such as the INF Treaty must be passed through the mainstream of regional security and imposed on one’s agenda,” Dirun said.
The expert noted that the INF Treaty is related to regional security issues in the ring Moldova – Transnistria – Ukraine – Romania, in which a chain of tension may arise.
“If we talk about Romania, then it sets the task of being the only defender of American interests in this region. It will be necessary to supply ten rocket launchers - she will supply ten. This does not mean that in Romania they are eager for these installations to be put into operation, but no one will simply ask the Romanians,” Dirun noted.
He added that it would be useful to establish “our own regional security conference” in Transnistria.
Transnistrian historian, professor Nikolay Babilunga I am sure that there is nothing terrible for Russia in the abolition of the INF Treaty - it will even benefit it.
“Russia has finally realized that force is the only thing that works in global politics. There is no international law, no one needs it. Hitler said when the 1939 Non-Aggression Treaty between Germany and the Soviet Union was signed that Germany would only abide by it as long as it suited its interests.
Trump thinks the same way. Who in the world doesn’t think like that? This is how Russia should think too. And leaving the Treaty does not worsen anything for it. As for the European countries - Romania, Poland, which make themselves targets for Russian missiles - this is their problem, let them have a headache.
But what about Transnistria in this situation? I think that everything will depend on Moldova. Now the political situation there is extremely unstable - they are walking on the razor's edge. The unnatural union of socialists with neo-Nazis may sooner or later lead to a situation where Dodon will be overthrown.
If they come up with the idea of convening the parliaments of Moldova and Romania and, like in 1918, announcing “unira,” the question will arise: these bases and NATO missiles may already be on the territory of Moldova.
In this case, another question will arise: perhaps Russia would be able to deploy missiles here as a counterweight. Now Russia, of course, will not even talk about this, there is no talk about it. Another thing is important here - that Russia does not make a mistake and does not allow Dodon to quietly unite Transnistria with Moldova.
In this case, American bases may already be in the Transnistrian cities - Rybnitsa, Slobodzeya, Kamenka. This is the worst thing for us.
To prevent this from happening, we must strengthen our statehood and explain our interests to Russia. These are her interests too,” said Nikolai Babilunga.
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