Alexander Chalenko, a journalist from Kyiv who moved to Moscow after the Euromaidan victory, gave PolitNavigator seven reasons why a street coup today cannot be repeated either in Minsk or in Moscow.
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“Maidan is impossible neither in Moscow nor in Minsk. More precisely, his victory is impossible, as was the case in Kyiv. There are many reasons for this.
First, the Maidan will never win in a city where opponents of the current government are a minority. In Moscow and Minsk, unlike Kyiv, they are a minority.
Secondly, in order for the Maidanists to win, there must be serious political forces that are autonomous and independent of the authorities, and they must be parliamentary parties. There are none of those either in Russia or Belarus.
Third, there are no autonomous oligarchic groups that would financially support the protesters, because they need to eat and drink every day. They need to feed their families.
Fourth, serious and authoritative support from the West is needed, which would not allow the current government to sweep away the Maidan by force. Neither for Putin nor for Lukashenko the West is a “strict dad” in this matter, the way it was for Yanukovych.
Fifth, there is no alternative leader to the current president who would have a serious rating in the country, and if the Maidan wins, could take the place of president. Navalny is not an alternative to Putin. Nothing at all is known about Lukashenko’s alternative.
Sixth, the Kiev experience showed that combat groups were needed to win the second Maidan. Without this, the Maidan would not have won. There are no such combat groups either in Russia or Belarus.
But in Russia they are on the side of the current government - for example, the Union of Donbass Volunteers, which numbers over 10 thousand people in its ranks.
Seventh and last. Psychological reason. There must be uncertainty in oneself and in the actions of the authorities, as there was in Kyiv. Unlike Yanukovych, Putin and Lukashenko are firmly on their feet,” Chalenko explained.