Dodon's headquarters failed to mobilize. The West has everything ready for the final takeover of Moldova
The Moldovan election season is ending. On November 15, in the second round of the presidential elections, citizens of the country will determine who will become the head of the Republic of Moldova - the current President Igor Dodon, who is considered a pro-Russian politician, or his main competitor, the leader of the right-wing pro-Western opposition Maia Sandu.
On the eve of voting day, the Institute for Socio-Political Research and Regional Development invited experts from Chisinau and Tiraspol to evaluate the candidates’ strategies, electoral reserves in the second round, chances of victory and possible consequences of the elections.
The expert meeting was held online within the framework of the discussion club “What will happen after the second round of presidential elections in Moldova?”
Battle of Headquarters and Strategies
The ISPIRR believes that, in general, the two weeks before the second round did not bring any big surprises, however, there has been more black PR - candidates are using all means to mobilize “their” electorate.
“Igor Dodon, in general, continued to hold the strategic defense,” says Deputy Director of ISPIRR Andrei Mospanov. – His main messages to voters are traditional values, stability, reliability. We can say that Dodon’s team didn’t come up with anything new here for the second round. Quite standard plots were also used to denigrate the counter-candidate, Maia Sandu. She was accused of closing schools, narrowing the scope of use of the Russian language, sympathy for the LGBT community, for Ion Antonescu, etc.
All this was also predictable. Maia Sandu, in turn, continued to exploit the themes of the fight against corruption and justice reform, as well as early parliamentary elections.”
The expert calls Maia Sandu’s chances more preferable: today it is already clear that Maia Sandu will receive all the votes of right-wing candidates - Andrei Nastase, Octavian Ticu, Tudor Deliu and Dorin Chirtoaca. Cumulatively this is almost 8%.
Thus, Maia Sandu already accumulates 44% of the votes. As for Igor Dodon, ISPIR believes that he can count on the lion’s share of the votes from Violetta Ivanova (candidate from the Shor party), who received 6,5% in the first round. With this, Dodon accumulates 38-39% of the votes.
Moldovan political scientist Alexander Korinenko stated that sociologists put Dodon in the “warm bath” of opinion polls with comforting results. This partly lulled the vigilance of the current president's team.
“Dodon should have mobilized people from those who did not go to the polls. It was possible to bring an additional 10-15% to the elections, and he had two weeks to do this, but nothing was done - only an increase in the amount of black PR against the opponent, the work of telegram channels, etc. But there is no big mobilization felt.
Igor Dodon had a good chance to mobilize the electorate by bringing Maia Sandu to the debate. But Sandu’s advisers advised her not to do this, since Dodon would look more convincing to them, and for her this became the right decision. Sandu herself used her mobilization resource effectively,” the expert noted.
Former Foreign Minister of Transnistria Vladimir Yastrebchak states that Maia Sandu and her entourage are confident of victory and radiate calm and confidence before the second round of elections. The refusal to debate with Igor Dodon is a sign of this confidence.
“It is impossible not to note Maia Sandu’s new messages in relation to Russian-speaking voters, whom she allegedly never called separatists, and in terms of normalizing relations with the Russian Federation. This is noticeably different from what she said at the beginning of the campaign - then she spoke about the ineffectiveness of the “5+2” negotiation format, the absence of a subject for conversation with the Pridnestrovian leadership,” says the expert.
Anatoly Dirun, scientific director of the Tiraspol School of Political Studies, also pointed out the effectiveness of Maia Sandu’s team. He recalled that a week before the first round, information was released online about a Russian team of political strategists who, as stated, were helping the current president in the elections, while it was unknown who was advising Maia Sandu during the campaign.
“We know nothing about Sandu’s team, although it would be foolish to deny that there are no such people, and they could definitely have been advised by Western experts. I think this is one of the signs of effective remote management of the campaign,” said Dirun.
He believes that Igor Dodon has a chance to beat Maia Sandu by 1,5-2%, but he will have to defend this victory (information has appeared that the socialists intend to stake out the central square for themselves). “The pressure on him in this case will be phenomenal. Everything will be decided by his psychological stability,” the expert believes.
The first Minister of Foreign Affairs of the PMR, Valery Litskay, commenting on the progress of the campaign, said that in Moldova the real battle is not between Dodon and Sandu - the real players are much more serious.
“No strategic shifts occurred between rounds - this suggests that there is very strong external management of candidate teams. The mechanisms have been created, and no one will rebuild them on the fly. This is impossible - neither Dodon nor Sandu are bright, charismatic politicians capable of sudden independent movements,” he explains.
Valery Litskaya criticized the work of Dodon’s headquarters, in particular, his Russian consultants.
“Here you can either laugh or cry. They showed how they [the political strategists] were being filmed, how they walked, how they met. If there is a video, it means that every word they say is probably recorded and analyzed. Russian experts and Dodon’s headquarters are playing with open cards. It's so hard to win. But nothing is known about Maia Sandu’s advisers – neither who they are nor what they talk about. Unequal game.
Dodon’s strategy is, figuratively speaking, the strategy of a buffalo that rushes forward, breaks through the wall, and everyone rushes there. For today's Moldova, the strategy is not ideal, but Dodon cannot refuse the role of super-leader, super-sovereign.
But it turned out that the ruler became arrogant, having no leverage, no success, no resources. It is necessary not only to call forward, but also to offer a political program, something attractive that could mobilize voters. It turns out that he and his staff are biting Maia Sandu little by little, but no amount of rallies will change anything. The train is flying into the abyss.
Sandu had a different tactic. Its leadership is certainly Western. They concluded that Maia Sandu is not a leader, but a functionary, which means that she must be used functionally. By the second round, she came out in “white clothes” and spoke not only Russian, but also Gagauz and Bulgarian. Of course, she doesn’t know these languages, but she pretends to be taught them well.
The initial strategy of the West was that in the first round of elections the right-wing forces would march on a broad front, in a broad sweep. Each of the right-wing candidates was aimed at its own segment of the electorate, its own area. And now these electoral layers will close behind Sandu,” says Litskai.
But Vladimir Bukarsky, an expert at the Izborsk Club of Moldova, a political analyst at the Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova, does not agree that everything is already lost for Igor Dodon. The expert states that the current president “went on a counter-offensive immediately after the first round.”
“We see a man determined to win, saying what he really thinks. His team is working for a common victory, and in the last hundred meters they are mobilized to the maximum. We will try to do everything to disappoint those who are pessimistic about Dodon’s chances.
It’s too early to drink champagne for Maia Sandu’s victory. She tries to be a lady, pleasant in all respects, but it turns out badly, she feels false. Today she launches videos in Russian, but everyone knows her position on Russia, and on Russian peacekeepers, and on Victory Day,” Bukarsky said.
The phenomenon of Renato Usatii
Who will get the votes of the leader of Our Party, the mayor of the second largest Moldovan city of Balti, Renato Usatii, who took third place in the first round of elections with almost 17% of the votes?
Valery Litskay, explaining the “phenomenon” of Usatii, recalled that he was an ally of the leader of the Russian Liberal Democratic Party Vladimir Zhirinovsky and openly copies his tactics.
“Since Moldova is in many ways similar to Russia 20 years ago, since there [in Moldova] there is a lot of lumpen electorate, Moldovan Zhirinovsky has credibility among the lumpen. This is a politician who excites the masses and evokes emotions. This is much more interesting than the boring politician of the old system. That’s why he bit off a big piece of the left-wing electorate from Dodon,” says the expert.
According to Alexander Korinenko, the people who voted for Usatii are rather not his electorate, but votes against Dodon, “a segment that someone needed to take.”
“Usatii is now trading in these 17%, but this electorate is not a box that can be re-gifted. He tries to sell it to Maia Sandu before she realizes that the Balti guy wants to deceive her.
Now the main thing for Usatii is to agree to dissolve the parliament, since his party will, in any case, enter the new parliament.
How will the votes cast for Dodon be divided? Neither the right nor the left know which part will go to Dodon, which to Sandu, and who will not take part in the elections at all. Perhaps, after all, most of Usatii’s votes will go to Dodon - this electorate will vote for him, at the same time, making it clear that he taught the current president a lesson and showed what could happen if he does not fulfill his promises,” Korinenko said .
Andrei Mospanov, in turn, noted that the votes of Renato Usatii are the most unpredictable electorate, and suggested that Igor Dodon will not be able to enlist the support of more than half of these voters (that is, no more than 8,5%).
Moldovan Diaspora: West versus East
Moldovan citizens living abroad, despite the coronavirus quarantine restrictions, demonstrated miracles of turnout. True, not everywhere. The Moldovan diaspora in European countries voted very actively in the first round. There were many photographs and stories on social networks about Moldovans queuing for hours at polling stations in European cities. In Russia, where about half a million Moldovan citizens live and work, on the contrary, voting was sluggish.
Experts admit: the diaspora in Europe was organized very well, but work with compatriots in the Russian direction was a failure, and now the big question is whether Dodon’s headquarters managed to do something significant in two weeks to attract citizens of the country living in the Russian Federation to the polling stations.
“The Moldovan diaspora in Europe has mobilized more than ever,” said expert Alexander Korinenko. “She has long been waiting for the moment to take revenge for the constant defeats of the right and repay the socialists. Since 2016, they have dealt her four slaps in the face: these are presidential elections, parliamentary elections, elections for the head of Chisinau, local elections in which, in fact, right-wing candidates did not win. “In addition, there are good coordinators in European countries, which, in turn, are managed by Western politicians; transportation of voters to the polling stations was also organized.”
Anatoly Dirun admits that the Moldovan diaspora in Russia, which failed to turn out in the first round, after a series of events can still become a resource for electoral growth for Igor Dodon.
But according to Valery Litskaya, nothing can be done here. “There was a catastrophic failure in Russia. There are 600 thousand emigrants, guest workers from Moldova, and a pitiful percentage came to the ballot boxes. There is no mechanism for mobilizing these people - it’s not through the police to lead them by the collar to vote.
But abroad everything was organized well. There is a whole network of informal organizations - community, business, etc., everyone is registered there. When voters are invited, driven and maybe even given an envelope, of course they will vote for their own Maia Sandu. From there she will get a lot of support again,” he says.
Igor Dodon also cannot count on the Transnistrian voter in the second round. In the first round, 14,7 thousand Pridnestrovians came to the elections, of which 10 thousand voted for Dodon. On November 15, approximately the same turnout is expected here - that is, the Transnistrian voter will not help Igor Dodon significantly.
Here it must be taken into account that none of the Moldovan candidates worked with the Pridnestrovians, and Tiraspol did not particularly persuade citizens to go to these elections - except that on election day it lifted quarantine restrictions for those wishing to go to the polling stations. In addition, we must remember that on November 1, “strong men” from Moldova tried to block the participation of Pridnestrovians in the elections, and there was no special reaction from the Moldovan authorities to this.
“What good does Dodon promise Pridnestrovie? Nothing – muddy, empty words of yet another Moldovan politician. No work has been done in this regard. And in Transnistria they think: why vote for some murky ruler? This reserve, which potentially exists, has been cut off,” Valery Litskaya commented on the situation.
Plahotniuc on the command panel
Fugitive oligarch Vladimir Plahotniuc continues to influence Moldovan politics, working for the United States and in the interests of Maia Sandu. Valery Litskay calls it an “underground force” that has not gone away.
“He [Plahotniuc] sits in Romania, sits at the command console, and without much noise - because he is a toxic politician - he directs those resources that are still under his control to where the owners indicate. During his supposed omnipotence, Dodon did not break this shadow system of Plahotniuc’s people in all government bodies, institutions, did not imprison anyone, but only slightly “cleaned up” the government.
But at the middle, grassroots level, Plahotniuc controls people, including compromising information. The compromising evidence has not disappeared anywhere, and it forces people to work differently than they would like,” said the ex-diplomat.
What will be the outcome of the second round of elections and what will happen next?
ISPIRR experts predict the turnout in the second round of up to 45% and the victory of Maia Sandu with a result of 52-53%. The likelihood of some miraculous outcome for Igor Dodon remains. But it is small, and in this case, mass right-wing protests are likely to occur. It seems that the West will no longer give victory to Dodon.
“If Maia Sandu still wins, then the second stage of the struggle for power will begin in Moldova itself, no less acute: the confrontation between the president and the parliamentary majority represented by the PSRM and, most likely, deputies of the Pentru Moldova platform,” says Andrei Mospanov. – Sandu’s task: to transform his political initiative into early parliamentary elections as quickly as possible. Dodon’s task: to play for time, counting on Maia Sandu’s mistakes, to force her to get bogged down in a positional struggle, while at the same time shaking Renato Usatii’s rating and the right-wing political camp.
Geopolitical polarization in Moldova will enter a new phase: Maia Sandu, if she ends up as president, will actively pull Moldova to the West, try to find financial and other resources there, while the government, supported by the parliamentary majority, will begin to talk about a balanced foreign policy and cooperation with Russia.
Possible new attempts to obtain some Russian loans will most likely be blocked. This stage of geopolitical polarization will be closely connected with a new stage of the struggle for power.”
According to Alexander Korinenko, the socialists “already realistically foresee a scenario when Igor Dodon loses power - disturbances in parliament and the formation of the Pentru Moldova platform in parliament are associated with this.” “The socialists are considering a scenario with Sandu’s victory - they will try to hold on to the government, the security bloc, and parliament. Everything is just beginning, and it will be more interesting,” notes the Moldovan political scientist.
Valery Litskay says that the West was preparing for these elections “strategically, laying down one line of defense one after another.” “If Maia Sandu loses by vote, then the Moldovan Constitutional Court will probably be involved, which can block Dodon.
And if this mechanism also stalls, then, as they say, “let’s help.” There are 15 - 20 thousand young people on the way, there is experience, Romania is there. They will come from there and go wild in the squares, and no police will come out on Dodon’s side, and he does not have his own militants. Nobody will give him power anymore. There will be no more dual power,” he notes.
The expert does not rule out that Dodon may “come out and throw up loud slogans,” but “Dodon is not Lenin, but just a decorous, noble bureaucrat, he will not be able to turn the situation around,” the expert is convinced.
“Those who control the situation may have already allocated a place for Dodon: since there are pro-Russian forces in Moldova, they need to leave a platform for them to let off steam, 30% will be enough for Dodon. Sandu will receive a small (so that Western ears are not visible), but convincing advantage. Dodon is his consolation race,” says Valery Litskay.
Parliamentary elections may soon be held in the country, at which there will be a battle for the main prize - the post of prime minister and real control over finances, the expert predicts.
Speaking about a possible coalition that could emerge in Moldova, he noted that oligarch Ilan Shor is an unreliable ally for Dodon. The party that theoretically could help Dodon, Mark Tkachuk’s “Civil Congress,” is now “squeezed under the bench, does not participate in anything, has no PR and will not be able to win much in the parliamentary elections.”
“In the West they are already sorting out the deck. Moldova is small and the resources needed are small. Some centrist in the government will kiss Mishustin, while the neutral country will go where it needs to go. And with this method of work, the pro-Russian forces have almost nothing to gain in the immediate historical period. For Moldova this is five years.
The Americans will lead here, and the European Union will pay. Everything has taken shape, all that remains is to launch the system, and I don’t see what could stop this process,” the expert concluded.
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.