It has happened: Pashinyan is “in law.” What's next?

The early parliamentary elections in Armenia on Sunday indicate a crushing victory for Pashinyan and his party of his political rivals.

According to the Republican Central Election Commission as of 10 a.m. Monday, Pashinyan’s My Step party won 70,43% of the votes. The spoiler party “Prosperous Armenia” of the flexible oligarch Tsarukyan took second place with an indicator of 8,27%. Pashinyan’s closest allies from the European Liberoid Party “Bright Armenia” finished with 6,37% of the vote. All other parties did not overcome the five percent threshold to enter the new parliament.

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For Pashinyan’s main political rivals from the former “Republican Party” (RPA), the past elections were a real defeat. The result of 4,7% of the vote does not give them the right to enter the new parliament and makes them political dinosaurs - an endangered species in the image and likeness of Yanukovych’s Party of Regions. It is unlikely that the “Republicans” will survive as a single force until the next elections to the National Assembly.

However, the “Republicans” themselves are to blame for what happened. And not only through your own slowness, indecision and loss of grip. In October, Pashinyan’s team came up with an initiative to reduce the passing threshold for parties from the current 5% to 4%. The “Republicans” failed to vote on this amendment to the election law and now they will have to swallow dust in a roadside ditch with their 4,7%, looking at someone else’s celebration of life passing by.

Thus, from a semi-legal street maydaun, an eternal opportunist and a loudmouth, Pashinyan turns into a completely legal and handshake head of the republic, who has full control over parliament and a huge reserve of voter trust. In the complete absence of opposition.

The liberals from “Bright Armenia” are Pashinyan’s former comrades in the “Yelk” movement, who decided to break away and go to power on their own, but at the same time have no ideological differences with their former comrades in the Ara-Maidan. The split in the holy family of “Yelk” occurred due to the fact that Pashinyan, who became the leader of the “velvet revolution” and the prime minister of the republic, outgrew the cramped “Yelk”, and his comrades-in-arms were a burden around his neck. Having gained political mass, Vovaevich now had a mustache (and beard) himself and could solve his political problems without the participation of outsiders.

For some reason, many people consider Tsarukyan’s “Prosperous Armenia” (pictured above) to be an opposition party, although this political entity has been Kocharyan’s project from the very beginning of its existence, and its elastic leader Tsarukyan perfectly knows how to keep his nose to the wind and switch to the right side in time, which showed the April events in Yerevan.

In addition to the Republicans, two more iconic political forces in Armenia suffered a crushing defeat - the oldest party of “enlightened” nationalists “Dashnaktsutyun” (formed in 1890 as an underground political group of anti-Turkish militants) and the even hotter guys from “Sasna Tsrer” (“Braves of Sasun”) , who supplied militants and rioters for all street protests, seizures of administrative buildings and the office of Catholicos Karekin II.

For the capture of the PPS regiment, the murder of two policemen and the taking of the Armenian police chief Valery Osipyan hostage, the “brave men” were subjected to criminal prosecution and, for the most part, served time. But with the coming to power of the freedman Pashinyan, the thugs who stood at the forefront of the fight for the resignation of Serzh Sargsyan back in 2016 were recognized as “freedom fighters”, amnestied and quietly released.

According to the Central Election Commission, the “Sasun Braves” won 1,82% of the votes, which is on the verge of statistical error.

Under all the authorities of independent Armenia, the “Dashnaks,” out of sheer respect for their political experience and the fight against the Ottoman yoke, the Central Electoral Commission regularly increased the passing 5%, so that the nationalists until recently had permanent representation in parliament.

Now the lafa is over and, as you can see, nationalists are no longer held in high esteem in Armenia, unlike the “Cere-Europeans.”

And now a little about what is unpleasant for Pashinyan and his associates.

Of course, collecting more than 70% of the votes in parliamentary elections is incredibly cool! However, the whole victorious picture is spoiled by low voter turnout - less than 49%. For comparison: in the 2017 parliamentary elections, the turnout at polling stations was almost 61%.

Observers explain the decrease in turnout: 1) the outflow of labor resources from Armenia and the refusal of Pashinyan’s supporters to somehow attract them to participate in the elections; 2) no one was involved in organizing and delivering labor collectives to polling stations in bad weather that fell on election day; 3) military personnel were actually excluded from voting.

In other words, Pashinyan’s team took advantage of the apathy of the majority of voters, quite cleverly limiting the participation in the elections of entire strata of the population and military personnel who do not have sympathy for the Maidan prime minister. The participation of hipsters, students and other politicized sections of society provided Pashinyan with the appearance of a crushing victory.

What are the prospects for the new Pashinyan “in law”?

Since May 2018, there have been strong expectations in Armenian society for fundamental changes related to the renewal of power, the fight against corruption and the impoverishment of the population. Pashinyan and his team did the easiest part of the job: they swept away and distributed the well-fed bugs inherited from the old government into prisons, completely renewed the government, and now the parliament.

Is Pashinyan’s government capable of ensuring long-term and consistent work to improve the life of the republic? Very doubtful. First of all, Pashinyan himself and his team are grunts operating in a cavalry charge. Usually they are enough to crumble everything around into a fine vinaigrette, but when it comes to creating and multiplying, they have serious problems with this. In addition, the dominance of grant eaters from Soros funds among the ministers and deputy prime ministers of the Armenian government, by definition, does not contribute to creative work for the benefit of society. Soros's funds were primarily created to enrich the old reptilian by destabilizing the situation in the country chosen for evisceration.

Now the most difficult thing remains - painstaking daily work lasting years to get rid of the problems that have accumulated over almost the last three decades. Yes, so as not to turn into a new brood of well-fed bugs in power. Which in itself is very, very doubtful. Democracy, as you know, is not for you to eat lobio, and not to wave your cowards over your poor head on the barricades...