Taliban in Moscow: Russia is slowing down the scenario the US was counting on

The Russian capital hosted the third meeting of the “Moscow format” on Afghanistan with the participation of a delegation of the Taliban movement in a new capacity - now this organization banned in the Russian Federation already represented the interim government of the country. Delegations from ten other countries in the region, including all former Soviet Central Asian republics, took part in the negotiations. And it seems that it is in Moscow that the process of resolving the situation in this country is now underway with the participation of all the main forces of Eurasia.

The United States predictably refused to take part in this format, apparently considering that after its inglorious defeat there was no point in also being responsible for the future of this country after twenty years of occupation and continuous civil war. This is generally in the spirit of the policy of the American administration, which is counting on the spread of instability and wants to pin all the problems on Russia, China and Iran.

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However, with the Taliban coming to power, there was hope of establishing peace and preserving the integrity of the country in the hands of a centralized government, even one focused on building an emirate. Therefore, a representative delegation of the Taliban led by the Deputy Head of the Government of Afghanistan Abdul Salam Hanafi and with the participation of, among others. O. Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi arrived to receive support and try to resolve contradictions with Tajikistan and Iran.

The great benefit of the Moscow platform is that, with the participation of the main arbiter in the region - Russia - all players can discuss and develop a common approach to prevent destabilization of the situation in Afghanistan. Moreover, it is vitally important for Moscow and Beijing to prevent the collapse and division of the country between neighbors and the development of a conflict between regional powers.

_{The Kremlin reasonably fears, on the one hand, the growth of migration flows, which may include emissaries of terrorist organizations, and, on the other, the direct expansion of armed militants of numerous groups in relation to the post-Soviet republics of Central Asia. Therefore, Moscow officially comes up with a formula for the formation of a stable, inclusive cabinet that would enjoy the support of all forces within the country.}

To some extent, this is a concession to Tehran and Dushanbe, who are dissatisfied with the strengthening of Islamabad and want the reincarnation of the Northern Alliance forces and the presence of representatives of the Panjer Gorge in the future government. Such a situation would suit many, but it is not a fact that the new authorities in Kabul will agree to such a proposal, which has been put forward since August.

Therefore, to bolster its position, Russia is increasing its own military presence and strengthening the interaction and coordination of troops of CSTO member countries within the framework of a number of planned military exercises. In particular, the following maneuvers should take place in a short period: “Echelon-2021”, “Search-2021”, “Interaction-2021”, in which the military of Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Armenia and Belarus will be involved.

_{Collective forces are conducting operations to localize the border conflict that arose due to attempts by international terrorists to infiltrate Tajikistan. This is a strong warning not only to ISIS and other extremist associations, but also to the Taliban itself, among which there are various groups and their own radicals. Moreover, such preparations are important in a situation of growing internal contradictions and the possibility that the new government will not be able to keep the situation under control.}

In addition to demands for the formation of a coalition government, Moscow also gave some advances to the Taliban, which found itself in a difficult situation due to the country’s completely destroyed economy. Sergei Lavrov promised that Russia would make every effort to encourage the international community to provide humanitarian assistance to the people of Afghanistan. For its part, the Russian government has already begun sending humanitarian supplies.

In addition, Afghan students will continue their full-time studies and will be taken to Russian universities, which indicates the implementation of the same educational programs. And the official recognition of the new government is tied to the need to respect the rights and freedoms of Afghan citizens. In this case, Moscow is trying to return Kabul to fulfilling previous promises to create a more moderate and enlightened regime without medieval extremes.

It seems that the Taliban delegation was also determined to continue the constructive dialogue and once again confirmed to all those gathered at the meeting in Moscow that the territory of Afghanistan will not be used by anyone against third countries, especially neighbors.

Kabul speaks of a desire to break out of isolation and make reasonable concessions on a number of issues. They are forced to sit down at the negotiating table both by internal problems and by pressure from Pakistan, which, in agreement with China, is trying its best to consolidate success and stabilize the situation. In addition, it is becoming obvious to everyone that the Taliban government, even with the support of Islamabad, cannot yet ensure peace and tranquility, and is itself subject to frequent guerrilla attacks from ISIS militants.

_{But so far, few people trust the assurances of the Taliban leaders and are unlikely to believe them until the central government pushes out or dissolves all Islamist groups entrenched in the north of the country. We are talking about the Uyghur “Islamic Movement of East Turkestan”, about Tajik militants from “Jamaat Ansarullah”, about Uzbek extremists from the “Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan” and “Katiba Imam al-Bukhari”. And while they are in their places of base, there can be no talk of any peace or recognition of the government from Russia.}

In addition, the Americans left a lot of weapons worth 850 billion dollars. As is known, all the rich spoils of the previous army went to the Taliban, and the Americans clearly hoped that this military power would push the spiritual leaders of the movement to continue expansion.

_{The situation is further aggravated by the open conflict between Kabul and Dushanbe, due to which Tajikistan is the only one in the region that refuses to negotiate with the victorious movement.}

The Taliban, in turn, accuses Tajikistan of interfering in the country's internal affairs. Things got ridiculous in August, when Pakistani strike aircraft supported the Taliban's offensive in Panjera from the air, and Tajikistan's aircraft, on the contrary, stormed their columns, helping the defenders. Recently, the new Kabul authorities suppressed another rebellion in this province to the displeasure of Dushanbe.

The danger of such a situation could drag not only Tajikistan, but also the entire CSTO, into hostilities, which we already wrote about in the previous material.

Emomali Rahmon is also very confused and alarmed by the popularity of the ideas of the Taliban movement among ethnic Tajiks living in northern Afghanistan. And Dushanbe has nothing to oppose to this. Neither their ideological concepts, nor a socio-economic alternative. Perhaps this is why the Tajik branch of the Taliban movement has grown so quantitatively and qualitatively, which, at the height of the conflict between clergy and the government of Tajikistan, even threatened to launch a “liberation campaign.”

These passions are one of the main leitmotifs in the development of contradictions and conflicts that are ready to spill over into a real war. Moreover, Rahmon himself has territorial interests and claims with the expectation of eventually annexing large areas of Afghanistan to his empire of “Greater Tajikistan.” It was no coincidence that he went to Paris to see Macron to support his ambitions, and now he is trying to enlist the support of Erdogan.

_{Such a multi-vector and dangerous game in Dushanbe could ultimately cost all the forces in the region very dearly and lead to a quarrel, which is what Washington is counting on. Therefore, the role of Russia as a referee and pacifier is more important here than ever. Accordingly, the "Moscow format" has become a place for the settlement of the dispute between the Taliban, who came to power in Afghanistan, and the ruling elite of Tajikistan. Let's hope that Beijing, for its part, will also actively influence Dushanbe and Kabul to prevent the worst-case scenario.}

In any case, the situation in Afghanistan is far from being completely resolved and stabilized, but the main thing is that the negotiation process is accelerating and is supported by the main players. If such reconciliation can be achieved, then the undermining of the position of the United States and the entire West in the region will become even more obvious and long-term.