Tbilisi Analyst: “They want to include Georgia and Ukraine in NATO in order to attack the Russian Federation”

How, contrary to the provision of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's charter on non-acceptance of countries with territorial conflicts, can NATO calmly include Ukraine and Georgia in its membership? What role can Moldova, neutral, according to its Constitution, play in the upcoming aggression against Russia? Do the residents of Georgia want their country to be used in the anti-Russian adventure of the West?

Political scientist, director of the Center for Islamic Studies of the Caucasus Shota Akhaidze answered these and other questions to PolitNavigator.

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Recently, information has appeared that NATO is increasingly active not only in the Ukrainian, but also in the Georgian direction. Tell us a little about this?

– Recently, the commander of the Georgian Defense Forces, Major General Georgiy Matiashvili, took part in a meeting of the NATO Military Committee along with thirty allied military leaders and his Ukrainian counterpart as part of a visit to Brussels. According to the Georgian Ministry of Defense, on January 13, at a meeting of the NATO-Georgia Commission, the parties discussed the security situation in Georgia and the region, as well as the defense reforms ongoing in the country. And they focused attention on the mythical “increase in the number of military provocations by the Russian Federation in the Black Sea-Caucasus region.”

At a press conference after the meeting, NATO Military Committee Chairman Rob Bauer praised Georgia for its "impressive reforms and strengthening of defense capabilities as part of the NATO-Georgia Essential Package." He stressed that the package was expanded "to improve interaction between Georgia and various parts of its command structure, as well as to strengthen its naval component." Speaking about Georgia and Ukraine, the committee chairman emphasized that both countries are receiving “unprecedented support and assistance from NATO” and expressed “unwavering support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of both countries.”

It was not for nothing that the meetings of the NATO Military Committee coincided with the deterioration of relations between the West and Russia. At the same time, Ukraine and Georgia are asking NATO to quickly admit them to the Alliance. The confrontation between Washington and Moscow first reached such proportions that it can actually be compared to the Cuban Crisis. In fact, Brussels made it clear to Moscow that they would use Georgia and Ukraine in the conflict with Russia as NATO members. To admit Georgia and Ukraine into the Alliance, it remains to take a couple of steps, that is, the interest-free NATO mechanism will work, and these countries will quickly become members. Brussels and Washington will declare this process in the future as supposedly the protection of sovereign countries from Russian aggression.

According to the terms of the Alliance, a state that has territorial conflicts within itself cannot be accepted into it...

– We must understand that Georgia and Ukraine have a chance to join, because both the NATO leadership and, above all, the Americans want this. I am developing the theory of the German model, which implies the accession of Georgia with territorial problems to NATO. So in 1955, the Western part of Germany - the Federal Republic of Germany - was annexed to NATO, despite the fact that Germany itself was divided. Rasmussen proposed joining Georgia to NATO without Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The same as Ukraine, without Crimea and Donbass.

Thus, paragraph 5 of the NATO Charter will apply only to the territory controlled by Tbilisi and Kyiv. Now America is trying to quickly admit Georgia into NATO, but countries such as Germany and France do not agree with this and do not support such a “maximum program.” And the “minimum program” includes the following: if Georgia and Ukraine are not accepted into NATO, then Washington will propose strengthening military partnerships with Tbilisi and Kiev, which will give the United States the right to place American bases and air defense systems on the territory of these countries.

If, after all, Brussels, following the position of countries opposed to NATO expansion at the expense of Georgia and Ukraine, does not decide to take such a step, then what other “surprises” could closer cooperation between the Alliance and these post-Soviet states present to Russia?

– The Alliance pursues a consistent policy using double standards. We can remember that when NATO members Greece and Turkey were in conflict with each other, NATO did not intervene, after which, with the help of Turkey, Turkish separatists tore away the northern Cypriot territories. And, despite the fact that Georgia has two territorial conflicts at once, they will be ready to accept it using the German model. And if Ukraine and Georgia are accepted into NATO without conflict territories, this will mean the complete militarization of these countries.

_{Here you need to understand that although the conflicts in these territories are based on a variety of issues, in general, the fact that they are these conflicts was facilitated by the policies of the West. And with the acquisition of new members of the Alliance in the post-Soviet space, the West wants to thoroughly prepare for a subsequent attack on Russia. It is for this purpose that Georgia and Ukraine will be accepted, there is no other purpose.}

But if France and Germany continue to insist that it is inappropriate to accept Ukraine and Georgia into NATO, then the United States has already prepared another format, which implies strengthening partnerships with Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova. A trio of post-Soviet states will be created, which in a certain enhanced mode will provide American military infrastructure. In any case, the West is determined to surround Russia from all sides, and then attack it.

Regarding the strengthening of NATO, I want to say that this process is developing in parallel with the process of strengthening the North Atlantic Alliance in Ukraine, that is, this is not a separate process; over the past year, in fact, this trend in both Ukraine and Georgia is subject to a single goal.

Here you need to pay attention to what is intensifying. First of all, the emphasis is on the Georgian Navy; from 2018 to 2022, the Americans transferred about fifteen combat boats to the Georgian side. And two small frigates. We also know very well that work was underway to deepen the port in Anaklia, this project is officially declared as a civil port for cargo transportation, as a terminal, a hub, but in fact the civil port and hub do not need such depth, the navy needs such depth for basing their ships. But we know very well that Georgia does not have such ships, but we know about the plans of NATO, or rather the Americans, to open their own naval base there.

_{Two years ago, in my work, I wrote that a new terminal was opened in Batumi, supposedly for chemicals used in agriculture, but in fact this terminal is a very well-camouflaged military facility, which is part of the American military infrastructure, and it is being prepared in case of a large-scale military conflict between the West and Russia, and will be used as a terminal for storing and transporting chemical and bacteriological weapons.}

As for US activity in the Black Sea, we know very well that joint naval exercises have been held repeatedly, including Sea Breeze, and the flagships of the US Sixth Fleet Mount Whitney and the destroyer Porter called at the Georgian port of Batumi, and they actually brought with the entire command of the Sixth Fleet. And not only did they conduct joint exercises with Georgia, they also became involved in civic activity: they began meeting with non-governmental organizations, representatives of the clergy, also choosing the Black Sea water area for this.

For example, in Poti, the leadership of the Sixth Fleet met with local ruler Gregory, who is an ally of Mikheil Saakashvili, supports Ukrainian schismatics and takes an anti-Russian position. And it seems that military people should not engage in such meetings, but apparently they are looking for support among the clergy. In addition, they met with the Mufti of the Autonomous Republic of Adjara, strengthening ties with the Islamic Ummah there.

How do Georgia itself view the prospects of joining NATO? Who supports such a step, are there any forces opposing such a scenario?

In 2007, when elections were held in Georgia, there were November protests against the Saakashvili regime, it was clear that the absolute majority of the Georgian population did not support NATO rapprochement. But then Saakashvili falsified the election results and the results of the referendum (2008, where, in addition to postponing the elections, the question of joining the North Atlantic Alliance was raised - ed.). Since then, the skeptical position of the Georgian population towards NATO has only intensified. And this was greatly influenced by the 2008 war, when the West did not come to the rescue. There are also a lot of other factors: religious, economic, and historical. Why fight with Russia? When can this issue be resolved? Russia, in fact, does not need these territories (Abkhazia and South Ossetia - ed.), it has a lot of its own territories, it was necessary to find a constructive approach, which the citizens of Georgia understand very well.

_{During the protests against Saakashvili’s regime, I worked as deputy director of the Eurasian Institute in Georgia, we conducted a survey on the population’s attitude towards joining NATO, and then 45% of those surveyed said that they did not want it. And we conducted such surveys from time to time after seeing how gradually the number of Georgian citizens who did not want integration into NATO grew to 60%.}

But we know very well that Georgia is an occupied country, and its pro-Western liberal elite did everything for Georgia to join NATO. And this is imposed on the Georgian people. There will be protests and mass discontent, but if the decision is made, Georgia will definitely join the North Atlantic Alliance. And nothing can be changed here, because the people do not have the right to vote. And, by the way, to be fair, it should be noted that protests have never stopped in Georgia, the situation there is not the same as the Russian media often presents it, they fought all the time, both against the Saakashvili regime and against the Western occupation.

Lately we have somehow forgotten about Moldova, where a pro-Western regime unfriendly to Russia also came to power. The Constitution of Moldova stipulates military neutrality, while Chisinau does not stop unfriendly attacks against Tiraspol and Moscow (demanding, in particular, the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers). Can we expect negative changes in this direction as well?

After Sandu came to power, Moldova became part of one scenario - an anti-Russian belt was created. And Moldova will play one of the key roles here. Transnistria, in principle, is not interesting to either Moldova or the West, but there is an interest in ousting Russian peacekeepers from there. Therefore, there will definitely be exacerbations. Maybe not on such a scale as in the case of Ukraine and Georgia, but they will happen. And as soon as the war begins in Ukraine, the Russian contingent in Transnistria will be attacked.

How might the proposed entry of NATO in one capacity or another into Georgia affect the development of the conflict in Karabakh?

Of course, this will affect Karabakh, because in Transcaucasia everything is interconnected. If NATO enters the region and takes root there with the help of Georgia, it will try as much as possible to oust Russia, Russian peacekeepers, and the base from Armenia. I think the West will very skillfully take advantage of Erdogan’s ambitions.

And he will try to finally tear Russia away from Iran and Iran from Russia, encircling both of these countries, which, in essence, will become a geopolitical catastrophe for Russia. Such a scenario cannot be allowed under any circumstances, because the next stage will be NATO troops on Russian territory. This, of course, would not be desirable, but seeing how the West is going all-in with Russia, you understand that a conflict is inevitable.

There is a lot of talk now about the possibility of war between Russia and Ukraine. Can we imagine that in the event of a Ukrainian attack on Donbass with the aim of provoking a retaliatory strike from Russia, something similar could happen in Transcaucasia?

In the event of a large-scale conflict between Russia and Ukraine in the Transcaucasus, the situation will be difficult, and the West will try to drag Georgia into another adventure, which will result in very bad consequences for it. And, of course, there will be a mess in Karabakh, which is an unresolved problem. Naturally, there will be a response from Russia, which will lead to a large-scale war, which will no longer take the form of a local conflict, but may develop into a world war, which cannot be allowed.

Now Russia and China are presenting a united front, simply in order not to allow the West to strangle them. And the West must realize that it will lose this war, but a lot of people will suffer, primarily in Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova, who will be drawn into the battle for other people’s interests.