Transport blockade of Transnistria. Chisinau is strangling the republic with the hands of Kyiv
What has been written and talked about for a long time - the threat of blocking Pridnestrovian vehicles - has happened. Pridnestrovian cars, the owners of which have not changed their license plates to neutral ones, are prohibited from driving on the territory of Ukraine from September 1.
At the Ukrainian border, in particular at the Kuchurgan checkpoint, Pridnestrovian cars are turned around and sent home. The decision was made in Kyiv, although the Moldovan authorities asked to postpone the ban until January 10, 2022.
This problem is very painful for residents of Transnistria (many of whom, by the way, are ethnic Ukrainians, citizens of Ukraine) - people go to visit relatives, on trade matters, and on vacation. The main flow of transport from Transnistria traditionally goes to Odessa and the Odessa region.
Neutral license plates without state designations, agreed upon by Chisinau and Tiraspol, issued since 2018 and allowing Pridnestrovian motorists to take part in international road traffic, are still available to only a small part of PMR vehicles.
Ukraine’s “gift” arrived just in time for Republic Day - Pridnestrovie will celebrate the 2st anniversary of its founding on September 31. The question of the transport collapse the day before was the first at the pre-holiday press conference of the President of the PMR Vadim Krasnoselsky.
The head of the republic hastened to reassure citizens. He stated that “there was no disaster” because “vehicle registration points operate for individuals, and any citizen can obtain a neutral license plate if they wish.” (At the same time, it is not clear what to do for residents of the republic who drove cars with Transnistrian registration, for example, to Russia, on business or to work - they are now unlikely to be able to return home in their cars under the new rules introduced by Ukraine).
According to the President of the PMR, the following issues are really pressing today: cargo transportation, passenger transportation and the search for compromises on the Pridnestrovian driver’s license.
Tiraspol is addressing the problem urgently. As Vadim Krasnoselsky noted, the Moldovan side was asked to resume the activities of working groups on transport issues and find a compromise. Perhaps the issue will be discussed at the upcoming meeting in the “5+2” format.
“If Mrs. Sandu, her associates and supporters are consistent, naturally, seeing the destructive position of Ukraine, they should sit down with us at the negotiating table and find a compromise on these very important issues. Let me remind you that solving these issues will stabilize the situation of ordinary citizens, people who do business - everyone who lives in the territory of our state and not only in it. I hope for a quick dialogue and, of course, a solution to this issue. I am convinced that, of course, the Russian Federation is closely monitoring the entire process and is waiting for a decision,” said the head of the PMR.
He noted that he sees “the desire of Moldova to resolve this issue and the reluctance of Ukraine to meet halfway.”
“To be honest, I have the impression that Ukraine is afraid that Pridnestrovie and Moldova will begin to negotiate,” admitted Vadim Krasnoselsky, calling on journalists, political scientists, and experts to “analyze why Ukraine acted this way.”
What do the experts say?
Director of the Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development Igor Shornikov (Tiraspol) said that, according to one version, Ukraine needed the ban as preparation for the meeting between Zelensky and Biden - to show the States that Kyiv is fighting Russian influence in the region. In this case, the unnecessary ban will soon be lifted. But the expert considers this version implausible.
“The ban has been around for a long time. I think that this decision was agreed upon with the Moldovan side, and the performance was staged so that Maia Sandu could evade her obligations to Russia while saving face. Moldova did what it had to do: it sent an official letter to Kyiv, but Kyiv took upon itself the full burden of responsibility for the fact that Moldova was unable to fulfill its obligations. In the end, everyone is happy - everything is going according to the pre-approved plan of pressure on Transnistria,” the expert explained.
If the problem is brought to the “5+2” format, Ukraine’s decision will most likely not be reversed, but perhaps some compromises will be found within the framework of the protocol on neutral numbers, Igor Shornikov believes.
“Maybe Moldova will make concessions in the sense that, for example, it will allow the use of Transnistrian driver’s licenses. The problem will be partially solved - the majority of Pridnestrovian car owners will have a reason to get neutral license plates and use them.
I talked with some Transnistrian car owners - citizens of Ukraine, who are at a loss what to do now: they don’t want to change Ukrainian citizenship to Moldovan citizenship, they don’t need additional worries about replacing Transnistrian rights with Moldovan ones. People have relatives in Ukraine, they need to travel. Some are even thinking about how to re-register cars with Ukrainian license plates and acquire Ukrainian licenses. But then questions of registration arise.
This creates inconvenience for ordinary people and for business. But they will no longer be able to escape this decision. If it has already been introduced, after being postponed several times, they will not return to the previous regime, but will adjust it and facilitate opportunities for obtaining neutral numbers,” said the director of ISPIRR.
Chisinau, according to the expert, finds itself in a difficult situation.
“The two sides to the conflict asked Kyiv for the same thing, but they did not react. This is a blow to the image of Maia Sandu. Her relationship with Zelensky is on the rise, they saw him twice in a week, and here is such a turn, a disrespectful attitude towards the Moldovan side.
This, by the way, is already the second blow, if you remember the case with Judge Chaus. Surely, Chisinau will be under pressure from Moscow, which will ask: they say, come on, solve the issue with your Ukrainian colleagues, Chisinau had obligations to Moscow regarding Transnistria, but they were violated.
But given the level of independence of Chisinau, this will be difficult to do. Chisinau will resist, want to comply with formalities, maybe write another letter to Kyiv, but there won’t be much effect,” predicts Igor Shornikov.
Political scientist Alexander Korinenko (Chisinau) in an interview with PolitNavigator, he more than once expressed the opinion that when the team of President Maia Sandu comes to power, arm-twisting tactics will be used in relation to Tiraspol. This is exactly what, according to the expert, has now begun.
“Everything happened very quickly. This is just the first measure of pressure against Pridnestrovie; there will be others. Chisinau and Kyiv should have applied this measure right now to destabilize the situation in the region, since Transnistria is entering the election campaign. This is a painful situation for residents of Transnistria, since many entrepreneurs buy goods there, people visit their relatives and go on vacation.
This ban will last a long time, and this is the first step - there will be more to come. President Sandu promised the Deputy Head of the Russian Presidential Administration, Dmitry Kozak, that the blockade would not be introduced. A document even appeared online where the Moldovan MFAEI asks Kyiv to postpone the ban until January 10, 2022. In my opinion, this step was taken in order to justify the presidency in the eyes of the Kremlin, since the blockade is actually carried out by Kyiv.
Chisinau now does not need aggravation with Moscow, and this is even beneficial for Kiev, since it will find a positive response among certain segments of the population,” said Alexander Korinenko.
In his opinion, the ban on the entry of cars with Transnistrian license plates could be lifted as a result of the intervention of external forces or if Tiraspol makes concessions that Kyiv and Chisinau demand from it.
Head of the Tiraspol School of Political Studies Anatoly Dirun, speaking about the transport crisis, notes that a decision on this issue may still be postponed to January 2022.
“This possibility still exists. This will largely depend on the outcome of negotiations between President V. Zelensky and his American counterpart. We can expect that Washington, as an observer in the negotiation process, will convey its point of view about the inappropriateness of “blocking” Transnistria. Perhaps this is Kyiv’s maneuver, to force people to pay attention to themselves and receive their dividends from the United States on topics that interest them,” the expert writes in his Telegram channel.
Anatoly Dirun draws attention to the fact that Transnistria, despite the optimistic attitude of the leadership, was not ready for this crisis.
“The point is not only that Kyiv’s refusal was unexpected,” he explains. – The problem is that we have a very narrow corridor of possibilities in solving this problem and enough problems that we ourselves had a hand in creating.
First. The signing in April 2018 of the Protocol Decision “On the participation of vehicles from Pridnestrovie that do not carry out commercial activities in international road traffic” without elaborating the issue of driver’s licenses is a serious failure for Pridnestrovians. Today this issue will be much more difficult to play out.
When you read the news that “everyone assured us that everything would be fine, but then they deceived us,” you wonder how diplomats, who by definition should not trust anyone and should seek written guarantees of an agreement, could believe this. In a word, they missed the mark.
Second. After 2012 and to this day, we do not have a clear foreign policy line in relations with Kiev. Of course, the situation changed after 2014, but when was it easy to talk to Ukraine? In 1991, when Smirnov was kidnapped in Kyiv, or in 2005-2006, when new rules for foreign economic activity were introduced for our enterprises?
When answering this question, it is important to separate the interests of large businesses, which have successfully resolved and are solving their issues in Ukraine, with the interests of Pridnestrovie as a state.
Third, this crisis has very well demonstrated how far the government is from the people. The strength of Pridnestrovian diplomacy has always been in relying on citizens, in the struggle to protect their interests. It’s hard to imagine, but in the mid-90s our diplomats managed to impose numbers with Transnistrian symbols on the Moldovan side. If you look up the transcript of the negotiations, it will be surprising to hear what arguments Tiraspol used. Examples of regional numbers of European countries were given, numbers of Tatarstan as a region of Russia were demonstrated, etc. Today our Foreign Ministry is a completely closed structure.”
Now, says Anatoly Dirun, it would be naive to expect that Chisinau will make concessions and solve Tiraspol’s problems at the expense of its own interests - the problem will probably only get worse. In this situation, he believes, the Transnistrian authorities should make it as easy as possible for residents of the republic to obtain neutral license plates, ensure maximum coverage of car owners - the state could even bear the costs of citizens for obtaining neutral license plates.
The expert also calls for finding a special approach in working with Kiev, conducting such work through different channels.
“The anti-quarantine measures introduced by Ukraine have shown that Kyiv uses separate solutions for its citizens when crossing the border. It is necessary to use this experience to provide an easier border crossing option for Ukrainian citizens living in Transnistria,” he explained.
Finally, the expert advises the leadership of Transnistria, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, to communicate more often with the residents of the republic, which will allow “not only to learn a lot of new and interesting things, but also to receive the main thing - support in their work to defend the interests of the republic, since the likelihood of new crises emerging in the near future will only increase."
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