US exercises in Odessa: Ukrainian fig in American pocket

So, the US 6th Fleet destroyer Porter is stationed in the Odessa port, and giant Hercules military transport planes land at our airfields, unloading American paratroopers with equipment.

The next joint Sea Breeze exercise between the Ukrainian Navy and the navies of NATO countries, primarily the United States, has begun.

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Since the late 90s, the presence of NATO ships in our ports has caused powerful protests from the common-sense forces of Ukraine. Of course, since 2014, everything has been different, and any protests are strictly prohibited.

And at today’s opening ceremony of the exercises, the commander of the Ukrainian Navy, Igor Voronchenko, essentially and unambiguously designated them as directed against Russia. It is simply impossible to interpret his words otherwise, characterizing the situation in the Black and Azov Seas as “tense” and directly accusing Russia of violating international maritime law and annexing the Ukrainian economic zone in these seas. According to this naval commander, “the exercises will help Ukraine adequately respond to these threats.”

In order to obtain a competent professional assessment of the balance of naval forces in our region, and, accordingly, the significance of the ongoing exercises, I met with my old comrade. A retired officer of the Soviet Black Sea Fleet, who held command posts in it and has not only an excellent education, but also rich practical experience of numerous military campaigns.

So, our conversation began with the fact that, having compared the forces of the Ukrainian fleet and the Russian Black Sea Fleet, we came to an already clear conclusion: there can be no talk of any parity of forces.

The Ukrainian fleet is weak and small, because even its flagship, the frigate Hetman Sahaidachny, is essentially just an old border ship, renamed frigates “out of politeness”, because it lacks the appropriate missile weapons to be classified in that class.

There is no need to talk seriously about the “deadly combat boats” recently launched with fanfare, armed with... machine guns. The submarine fleet is also completely absent.

Only landing ships are combat-ready, but even without support from the sea and air, they are simply doomed in any conflict.

One should not place excessive hopes on the real presence of the US fleet in the Black Sea. After all, even the launch of the control center near Ochakov, which is being intensively built under the leadership of the Americans, will not change the existing balance of power. Because - ships of any non-Black Sea power can get here only through the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles, and passage through them is strictly regulated by an international agreement concluded in Montreux, according to which their stay is limited to no more than three weeks, and ships equipped with artillery with a caliber of more than 210 mm . - they are simply not missed.

And the main task of the Black Sea Fleet of both the Soviet Union and Russia has been, since ancient times, to strictly block the entry into the Black Sea in critical cases by all means. From mining to submarine and aviation operations.

Thus, if any conflict arises in the Black and Azov Seas (God have mercy on us!), the weak Ukrainian fleet will find itself practically without any serious support.

Again, you need to take into account the fact that any objects on the shore and at sea can be suppressed and destroyed by missiles and aircraft within literally 15 minutes. And even the recently put into service of the coast guard units... machine guns of the Maxim system, model 1910, will not save our shores.

Thus, the exercises that began today can be perceived solely as another “fig” that the Ukrainian authorities are trying to show to Russia from the American pocket.

And even joint training with US sailors and marines in the most complex naval operations - amphibious operations - does not at all guarantee their success in the event of a real conflict. For one thing is maneuvers under the slogan “Burst, but keep it in style!”, and another thing is real US intervention, which can lead to catastrophic consequences for them.

And its likelihood, especially given the serious changes at the highest level of the States, is very doubtful. I'm not even talking about the possibility of Ukraine, even with American support, creating naval bases and fortified areas that would become an alternative to Sevastopol.

In reality, neither near Ochakov, nor, even more so, in Odessa, this is simply impossible in the foreseeable future. Because it would require long and extremely complex (and therefore extremely costly) dredging and fortification work. And no one today will go to them, realizing that all efforts can be neutralized with one blow.

So let them have fun and practice controlling fleets from ships. Those ships that in real conditions simply will not end up in either the Black or Azov Seas! Whatever the child amuses himself with!