Ukraine: Sad scenario 2019. Details from Oleg Tsarev
The US Embassy is preparing a coup in Russia. Ukraine can survive for another decade. South-East candidates will never again win a majority in elections. Petro Poroshenko agreed with the opposition on how to become president again.
About Russian banks that managed to pump more than three tens of billions of dollars into the Ukrainian economy, and about how oligarch Igor Kolomoisky managed to compensate for Crimean assets three times, the observer PolitNavigator to Valentin Filippov said the ex-deputy of the Verkhovna Rada Oleg Tsarev, who defected to the Russian uprising in 2014.
Valentin Filippov: Hello, Oleg. You were almost the only deputy of the Verkhovna Rada who, shortly before the Maidan, came to the podium and said that he was preparing, and something had to be done about it. And that the danger is quite serious. In my opinion, you were not taken seriously then. Tell me, in Russia today, is it time for someone to come out and explain what’s going on?
Oleg Tsaryov: Well, that’s for sure that we need to take the events that are happening in Russia seriously.
Then in the Verkhovna Rada I said that the United States Embassy was preparing a coup in Ukraine, for Ukraine this was new information. The Americans then had a dedicated employee surrounded by Yanukovych. You can directly say that it was Sergei Lyovochkin. He was the head of the administration, and he was assigned tasks to work with the United States Embassy and with the Americans. He was in very close contact with Manafort. And with the US Ambassador.
In my opinion, for the first time in Ukraine, a secret connection was made directly to the US Embassy. This one is closed. I remember that the signalmen then argued strongly about this.
This was the whole environment of Yanukovych, he had several people who were responsible for working with the European Union, some for the United States. Yanukovych personally took upon himself communication with Russia.
Therefore, the information that I reported was new for Ukraine. There were good relations with the US Embassy there. And this statement was perceived as such... At least this was new information.
And here, in the Russian Federation, there is no doubt that the US Embassy is working to destroy Russia, to blow up Russia from within. Therefore, there is no point in coming out and declaring this.
Moreover, there, in Ukraine, the Americans supported Yanukovych during the elections. Monafort worked, all theses were agreed upon, the program was agreed upon with the Americans. If the Americans had not supported, if Yushchenko had not supported Yanukovych, there would have been no administrative resources. There would not have been the two percent on the basis of which he won against Tymoshenko.
Valentin Filippov: Well, in Russia it is clear that the American embassy is working for a coup, a lot and persistently, and is going to work until they are all evicted, or the coup fails.
Oleg Tsaryov: For Ukrainians, when we see children in the square, there is only one association. This is the first student Maidan, which we also did not take very seriously. And we remember what this led to.
Here, in Russia, after all, control over the federal media is better established than in Ukraine. But this is very important. We remember that, for example, Channel Five had very low ratings during the Orange Revolution. But he gathered people. Using one channel. And here, in modern conditions, Internet television, YouTube, Twitter, Facebook are capable of doing everything that previously required some kind of television channels. Therefore, there is no need to get your hopes up. We have to work very seriously.
Valentin Filippov: By the way, using the example of Ukraine, you can see in general whether there is life after the Maidan. We all thought she was gone. However, life goes on in Ukraine. We can consider it ugly and illogical, whatever we want, but it continues. There is a political struggle there. There are defeats and victories. Zrady and peremogs, like they love kazaty.
Is Ukraine, as political scientist Rostislav Ishchenko says, really about to collapse? Or is there the formation of something new, terrible or beautiful, but different?
Oleg Tsaryov: Ukraine is going its own way. And here…. I am an industrialist myself. We have always worked, managed the enterprise, there was such a document - a budget. We didn't have it for show. We actually made decisions on how to spend the money, how much we would earn, and adjusted it all the time. And if the budget is negative for some time, then sooner or later there will be bankruptcy.
But this does not happen with the state. The company operates in a competitive environment. If you can’t pay the wages that are on the market, people just get up and leave. And you have no one to work for you. But here it doesn’t work that way. People cannot leave the country. All.
Yes, they are starting to leave, we see the rate of population decline in Ukraine. But everyone can't leave. Therefore, it got worse - salaries were reduced, pensions were reduced. How? Well, they raised the dollar exchange rate. There is little money - utility bills have been raised. And so on. And this can go on ad infinitum.
I watched when it all just began, how the radicals worked, destroyed, even physically eliminating, political opponents of the regime, it reminded me of something. I started digging around and dug up the death squads that were in Latin America. These were states where the United States established power, and in order to deal with opponents, brigades were formed that, regardless of the law, simply cleared out opponents of the regime.
And I looked at how the history of these countries developed. They existed for a very, very long time. The standard of living was falling. The opponents were cleared out. There was a dictatorship. And it lasted for decades, despite the fact that the Soviet Union was nearby, which was ready to support protest movements, which spent a lot of money on international activities, on supporting all sorts of anti-American movements. And yet, this continued for a very, very long time and stopped with the collapse of the Soviet Union. They decided that there was no point in maintaining such ugly dictatorships.
What am I talking about? And to the fact that everything went on for decades. That is, the state, unlike an enterprise, can fall for decades.
Well, as for Ukraine, there is something to sell here. How to maintain the standard of living and the current government. Yes, almost everything of the Soviet heritage has already been stolen. But the ports and railways remained. That is, there is still something to sell from the Soviet inheritance. There is also the legacy of our distant ancestors. This is land. The land can be sold.
And by selling resources, you can maintain a semblance of life over the next ten years. And then we’ll see what will happen to the world in general.
Valentin Filippov: We have heard statements that Russia is counting on the Ukrainian elections. That the government will change. The rhetoric will become less aggressive. And Donbass will feel better. Because, supposedly, more peace-loving people will come to power.
I turned on Ukrainian channels, new, nasty ones appeared there, where they say: “All Russians should be hanged,” and other channels say: “What are you doing? You are animals, gentlemen! We must shoot! Hanging is not good." Alternative points of view.
Can elections change anything? And how can they even get through? And who can be allowed to attend them?
Oleg Tsaryov: Of course they can happen. And they can change the situation. What do we see today? We see from the real candidates Gritsenko, who said that he would definitely go to the polls. So? Poroshenko, who said that he would go to the polls. You can’t tell him differently, because if he says that “I’m not going to the elections,” then he will lose power today.
Valentin Filippov: Well, they'll run away.
Oleg Tsaryov: Yes. Therefore, in any case, he must say this and increase his rating as much as possible, if only in order to then bargain with his successor. Here.
Tymoshenko is going to the polls. Vakarchuk never said anything at his concert; everyone expected him to say that he would go to the polls. But we cannot discount it. There is an understanding that the same people are behind Vakarchuk and Gritsenko.
So, offhand, we have three such powerful candidates. There is also a fourth, this is a representative of the South-East. I have no doubt that, as far as I know Ukrainian internal politics, Rabinovich, Akhmetov, Firtash agreed among themselves, and there will be one candidate, and, most likely, it will be Yuriy Boyko.
Valentin Filippov: What about Medvedchuk?
Oleg Tsaryov: Well, I said Rabinovich. Yes?
Valentin Filippov: We say Medvedchuk, we mean Rabinovich, we say Rabinovich, we mean Medvedchuk.
Oleg Tsaryov: Well, let's do it this way. It turns out that…..who benefits from this? This is beneficial, first of all, to Poroshenko. Because this is the only candidate he can win against.
First, we did a survey. They were made over the course of six months while the auction was going on. A candidate from the South-East, if he is united, if he does not break into 6-7-8 candidates, Vilkul, Dobkin, Korolevskaya, Boyko, well, that’s true, there may be other candidates, then he is gaining, from the start they vote for him from 30% to 40% of the population. We just need them to come to the polls.
Valentin Filippov: Well, sorry... There is no Crimea, there is no Donbass.
Oleg Tsaryov: I say thirty to forty percent, I don’t say fifty to sixty. In conditions, if there were Crimea and Donbass, now we have, as always in Ukraine, when the pro-Russian and anti-Russian electorate, in approximately equal numbers, came to power alone, earned an anti-rating, their electorate does not come to the elections, they come their opponents, and the power changes, the result is an eternal swing.
Valentin Filippov: No, well, you can still come to the Maidan. If it weren’t for the Maidan, they would have swapped places one by one.
Oleg Tsaryov: Crimea and Donbass were cut off, and there is a clear understanding that the pro-Russian population will never have a majority in Ukraine. But a clear second place is behind them, like the land behind a collective farm. If there is only one candidate from the South-East, then he is guaranteed to advance to the second round. And this is a super convenient candidate-rival for Poroshenko, and, the funny thing, for Tymoshenko.
And, moreover, the fact that anti-Maidan TV channels began to work, that a number of politicians in the South-East allow themselves to say things that were not allowed before, and no one comes to their office with bats, that the population was allowed to humanely to celebrate May 9 is precisely due to the fact that for six months to a year the concept that the only scenario for Poroshenko is to bring a representative of the South-East.
So, for the South-East, in order for it to come to the polls, it is necessary to create the illusion that its candidate can win. The South-East, this is in quotation marks, there are representatives in both Central and Western Ukraine who advocate a normal relationship with Russia. But for simplicity I will say – Southeast.
And for the Western electorate, just the “threat of revenge”, this will be what will bring Poroshenko’s voters to the elections. That is, he gets himself a convenient opponent for the election campaign, on the one hand, on the other hand, he mobilizes his electorate, which will be trampled by at least two more powerful candidates - Tymoshenko, Gritsenko - this is what we are now seeing at the start.
I think that the main struggle will be around these four figures.
Sad? Yes?
Valentin Filippov: I don't understand why we should go there? For these elections.
Oleg Tsaryov: People are being used for the umpteenth time? Yes? But I want to remind you that second and third level play is possible here. All those who now participated in this...... I’m looking for a word.... In this….. in this process of unification of the South-East, they all communicated with Poroshenko. And Poroshenko is confident that all this is being done in his interests. It was his idea. He asked first, second, third. They agreed, united, the other candidates put their ambitions far away. And this is all an agreement with the authorities. The authorities allowed her to be criticized. The government is not revoking the licenses of these TV channels. The authorities give the command to the police. The authorities are putting pressure on the radicals so that they do not interfere. Provides state security for these deputies so that they can feel safe. But here it is possible that in the first round, for example, Tymoshenko will win instead of Poroshenko. And it will go to the second round.
Valentin Filippov: Great, huh.
Oleg Tsaryov: Or, for example, Gritsenko.
Therefore, there are possible options and such. But it is important that the nomination of a single candidate from the South-East is beneficial to all representatives of that side without exception. And, simultaneously with negotiations with Poroshenko, negotiations are underway with Tymoshenko. And, at the same time as the negotiations with Tymoshenko, Gritsenko is being financed a little. All Ukrainian oligarchs have always done this. Thanks to this, they successfully passed through the transit of power. The president changes, but they have already financed him. More or less, but the process was started. And some kind of relationship exists.
Right now, no one is financing Gritsenko. Who doesn't finance Tymoshenko? And, of course, everyone helps Poroshenko, because he is the current president.
Valentin Filippov: The other day there was news about the arrest of the property of Sberbank subsidiaries. For what? After all, as far as I heard, it was through these banks that the Ukrainian economy was credited with almost $25 billion after the Maidan. And only thanks to this money that came from Russia, it was possible to avoid a complete collapse of the economy.
I don’t understand why Russia poured in this money. This is, firstly. And secondly, what a joke it is to nationalize all this, the banks are Russian, and no more money will come.
Oleg Tsaryov: Yes, Russian money probably won’t come. I wrote several articles, I know that people paid attention to them. Certain meetings were held. In general, it is common knowledge that Russia has invested more than $30 billion in its Ukrainian “subsidiaries” of Russian state banks. These figures were mentioned by Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin in his address to the Federal Assembly. It is no secret that this money was mostly stolen.
Valentin Filippov: But why?
Oleg Tsaryov: But because the composition of the leaders of these “subsidiaries” was specific. I know one person, he is a staunch Ukrainian nationalist, for example. Yes, he had a good education at one time. He was related to the KGB. Maybe that's why he was appointed. Maybe old comrades helped. But these are different people. One person studied at the Andropov Institute during the Soviet Union, with one conviction, and now in Ukraine - another.
Valentin Filippov: That is, you say that this is 30 billion by chance... An ill-conceived personnel policy. Is that why it happened this way?
Oleg Tsaryov: Not by chance. In Russia, in every large bank, especially state-owned, there is some retired FSB officer. And for every loan failure, a criminal case is opened. And it is being investigated. Moreover, they imprison not only fictitious directors, but also the founder. And it doesn’t always work effectively, but the system works.
And in Ukraine, failure to repay a loan to a Russian bank is considered a manifestation of national Svidomo. And, since Russian law enforcement services do not work there, they have become so disorganized that there are law firms sitting right next to the banks that say: “Do you want not to repay the loan? We will withdraw your assets, break the collateral agreement, and it will cost you 20% of the amount.” And the managers themselves send to these companies - go there, come to an agreement. Obviously, having your own interests.
And Ukraine then demanded that... Loans are becoming more toxic, the quality of loans is deteriorating, Ukraine needed currency. They increased the reserve standards for such not very good loans. Well, looking back at the fact that these are Russian banks. And the managers called Moscow and said: - either add refinancing to us, or they will bankrupt us and close us. Because we do not meet the standards of today's Ukrainian legislation. And at this rate, Russia has transferred more than $10 billion in two years for additional lending to its Ukrainian subsidiaries.
And this is convenient, look, the money came, they put 20% of it in their pocket, issued a loan and did not return the loan. Perhaps they even transferred part of the money to Moscow and received further funding. And no FSB general, who sits on the staff with the status of deputy manager.
Not to mention that a number of Russian banks issued charitable bonds to support the war.
Valentin Filippov: Well done, what...
Oleg Tsaryov: The first banks that left Donetsk and Lugansk, even before this was adopted at the legislative level, were Russian banks. So, just in case, no one said anything. They regularly pay 1% for the war from turnover.
Valentin Filippov: The question remains. Why close them?
Oleg Tsaryov: They voluntarily took on this function, it’s not on the website, but they really do it, you can pick up a phone number and call, ask, say: “I served in the ATO, and I have a certificate. I have a loan from you. Are you sure I won’t pay interest on the loan?” And they will tell you: “Yes, of course”!
Valentin Filippov: An ATO participant certificate in Ukraine is not that expensive.
Oleg Tsaryov: And now, the fact that Kolomoisky has seized his assets in Crimea for seizing them, well, that’s generally…. It's a benefit, yes. I don't know how to find the words. First, he retroactively brought in these assets and received refinancing from Privat-Bank. He was allocated just a gigantic amount of money, remember, the first time the exchange rate collapsed was when he drove away Crimean assets, received financing and immediately withdrew, bought currency, and the Ukrainian hryvnia could not withstand such a powerful purchase of the dollar. She collapsed. The first collapse was on Crimean assets. That is, he received money for them once.
Valentin Filippov: Then he sold the loans that were not repaid.
Oleg Tsaryov: Yes. Then he sold part of the loans. Then he, the last thing, he seized the money of Russian banks. On the assets of Russian banks in Ukraine.
Look, about ten billion were poured in as refinancing. For more than thirty billion, this was issued in advance, money was transferred to Ukraine into the authorized capital of these “subsidiaries”. Despite the fact that all this has been stolen over the past four years, there are still enough tasty things left there, yes. And now Kolomoisky has put his paw on them. All together this is more interesting than the entire Privat-Bank combined. Even leftovers. This is a very good gamble.
Valentin Filippov: Great! I remember, as a television broadcaster, that all subsidiaries of Russian media in Ukraine, as a rule, were anti-Russian. And the situation is the same with banks.
But anyway, they hit you not on your passport, but on your face. And we got to them too. Which I can't help but be happy about.
Oleg Tsaryov: It's a pity. It's a pity! This is Russian taxpayers' money. After all, the money got to VTB, where did it get to SberBank? This is the money of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
Valentin Filippov: I understand this perfectly. In all likelihood, people who make decisions in Russia need to be taught this way. By rake. They've gotten up to speed. Maybe they'll think of something. They’ll think: “Damn, we did something wrong!”
This is very important. I was taught at the military department that if the commander gives a stupid order, you carry it out very clearly, so that when you do it, he can see what he ordered, damn it.
Oleg Tsaryov: I tried, especially at first, to give orders that were absolutely correct. So that all subordinates develop a reflex not to think.
Valentin Filippov: OK then. Thank you very much. You gave me hope. And the banks gave them money. And Kolomoisky got some more money. So it will be fun. And Tymoshenko will run for president again. This means that an exciting election campaign awaits us. Billboards, all that bullshit. Her trembling voice with love for Ukraine.
Oleg Tsaryov: Let's get on with it. OK, good luck.
ValentinFilippov: Bye Bye.
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