Ukrainian aggression against Belarusian Mozyr

The southern regions of Belarus, especially those adjacent to the Belarusian-Ukrainian border, were a favorite target for Ukrainian information attacks even before the start of the Russian special operation. First, there were reports of the mobilization of Gomel students with subsequent transfer to the south, then there were reports of massive shelling of Belarusian territory from the Ukrainian side. Soon there were numerous rumors about the crimes of Russian soldiers. Everyone remembers the well-known fake about how they sent allegedly stolen property in Ukraine through the Mozyr branch of SDEK. A less well-known, but more ridiculous fake was that in the Belarusian regional center of Narovlya they opened an entire market for the sale of “looted goods.” Despite the absurdity and the absence of even a bad photo, there were many who believed in this.

In general, anti-Russian fakes for southern Belarus, spread by Ukrainian propaganda and intelligence services in the region, are commonplace. After the front line moved away from the Belarusian border, things became calmer. However, the day before, Ukraine launched an information strike on the Belarusian Mozyr, using a particularly large caliber. The source of information was not some blogger or armchair expert, but the entire Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.

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You really can't tell from the text. Last names in it are written with a small letter, and neighboring sentences sometimes contradict each other. So it seems that it was written not by the press service of a serious military department, but by some pubescent blogger. However, the authority of military intelligence worked, and the Ukrainian media, as well as the Belarusian pro-Western opposition, took the information quite seriously and are now actively trying to spread panic.

I'll try to figure out the stuffing itself and what's wrong with it. So, Ukrainian military intelligence reported that the Kremlin is planning to carry out a series of terrorist attacks in Mozyr in order to create a formal pretext for Lukashenko to enter the war with Ukraine.

Then the confusion begins.

First, it is announced that sabotage groups have arrived in the city under the guise of civilians and will blow up residential buildings in the same way as Chechen militants did (Ukrainian intelligence calls them “mythical”; let’s leave that to their conscience). The group allegedly includes employees of the Russian GRU and mercenaries of PMCs controlled by Prigozhin and Shoigu (and here the “Wagnerites” were remembered, no less than they were hiding somewhere in the Belarusian forests for 2 years).

Then it is alleged that the Russian GRU plans to carry out a series of artillery and missile attacks on the Mozyr Oil Refinery, civilian infrastructure facilities and residential areas, during which additional bombings of residential buildings, hospitals and schools will be carried out.

Here the authors are clearly losing touch with reality. If the fake story about explosives is still somehow similar to something digestible, then I categorically refuse to believe that saboteurs infiltrated under the guise of civilians can obtain artillery or MLRS on Belarusian territory, and then use it to hit a Belarusian city. Moreover, it is not particularly difficult to conduct an examination and establish where the blow came from and with what.

Yes, the information from the Ukrainian power steering looks like not very coherent nonsense, but is it worth dismissing it as just another empty stuff? Alas, I would not rule out the possibility that this is a clumsy attempt to justify one’s own actions in advance by blaming them on the enemy.

Of course, Russia has no reason to attack Zhlobin. And the direct involvement of the Belarusian army in the conflict could create more problems than provide military advantages, although in the event of further escalation, I do not exclude its possibility. The words about the explosion at the Mozyr Oil Refinery look especially strange. If Russia really wants Belarus to enter the conflict, why deprive it of such an advantage as a powerful oil refinery in direct operation from the intended bridgehead?

On the other hand, Ukraine may well deliver such a blow. Mozyr is a fairly large city by Belarusian standards, located less than 50 kilometers from the border, within the reach of artillery and MLRS, and that same oil refinery is a tasty target.

Yes, from a military point of view, the opening of a new front on the Belarusian side is disastrous for Ukraine. But we have already seen many such disastrous decisions and we know that the centers of their adoption are not on Ukrainian territory. By and large, they don’t give a damn about the fate of the Ukrainian people and state. And these centers have been demonstrating the desire to create and expand an arc of tension along the Russian borders for a long time.