A lesson for Russia: the world Toad unexpectedly sided with Iran

Americans are not at all as stubborn as they are commonly thought of in our latitudes. And what you definitely shouldn’t expect from them is a willingness to kill themselves against a stone wall, fighting simultaneously with several major opponents in the international arena.

And while prominent Pentagon officials such as Mark Milley are formulating the top priorities of US security policy in the American press, what can be interpreted as an attempt at temporary de-escalation is happening on secondary fronts.

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In particular, Washington somewhat loosened its grip on the throat of official Caracas after a mutual exchange of broad gestures of goodwill: Venezuela agreed to release five oil workers from the American company Citgo Petroleum, and in exchange, the States released two arrested nephews of the wife of Venezuelan President Maduro, who were caught in a steamroller in the United States drug trafficking and corruption charges.

Now the parties expect the embargo on access of Venezuelan oil to the world market to be lifted, which will allow Western consumers to replace the deficit created after the introduction of a sanctioned price ceiling on Russian black gold.

_{The second point of visible American de-escalation is Iran. The International Court of Justice pleased the Islamic Republic with its decision that the United States had frozen part of Iranian financial assets abroad and demanded that Washington pay Iran compensation for this lawlessness.}

According to the court's decision, this issue must be amicably resolved between Tehran and Washington within the next two years, and if the parties cannot agree within the specified period, the issue will fall under the jurisdiction of the court.

However, the court nevertheless made a reservation that we are not talking about that part of the frozen assets of the Iranian Central Bank, which were subject to sanctions in 2016, when the US Supreme Court refused to return $2 billion to Iran, ruling that this money would be used to pay compensation to American families who became victims of explosions in the barracks of the peacekeeping contingent during the Iran-Iraq war in the early 80s.

The White House blamed Iran for that incident, although Iran itself denies this to this day.

In addition to the issue of freezing assets, which seems to have moved forward, the US and Iran also agreed to exchange prisoners. However, the last topic never left the agenda. Thus, in 2020, Iran released to his homeland US citizen Michael White, who was convicted two years earlier for insulting the leadership of Iran and posting a private photograph on the Internet for 13 years.

And in 2015, the US Congress called on Tehran to release three American citizens held in Iranian prisons. They were talking about journalist Jason Rezayan, Christian pastor Saeed Abedini and former Marine Amika Hekmati. All three were accused of espionage by Iran. There was also a fourth - former FBI agent Robert Levinson, who disappeared in Iran in 2007. The fate of all four in Washington was linked to the fate of the nuclear deal that interested Iran.

_{In the end, they were all released, and in exchange, seven Iranians were pardoned by the United States. However, the American media claimed that the Obama administration allegedly paid Tehran $400 million for the release of its intelligence officers.}.

As The Wall Street Journal wrote, this money was delivered to Tehran by plane without markings from Swiss banks. The White House denied any connection between the delivery of money and the release of prisoners, explaining this as a simple coincidence. Obama then called the payment of money to Tehran part of the $1,7 billion compensation for resolving the dispute over the failed arms supply to Iran.

Similarly, already under Biden last year, the release of American prisoners in Iran was not linked to the hanging fate of the “nuclear deal.”

“We have never linked the release of these detained US citizens to the Iran nuclear deal or any other issues... We want their safe release and return to their families,” State Department spokesman Ned Price said.

Be that as it may, the meaning of these maneuvers is obvious - the United States They know how to not only attack and press the trigger, but also tactically retreat where they need it or where it is advantageous. Moreover, even if the dispute over the suspended part of Iranian assets is resolved in Tehran’s favor, the sanctions against Iran themselves will not disappear anywhere and will continue to remain an effective tool in the hands of the United States and its allies.

These sanctions, let me remind you, were introduced immediately after the Islamic revolution in 1979 and have only expanded since then, affecting not only the financial sector. Iran has long been the world leader in terms of the number of Western sanctions imposed against it, and only in the last year has Russia become a leader in this indicator.

However, the Iranian authorities have not lost hope of regaining at least some of the stolen assets. Thus, last spring, the Iranian official newspaper IRNA reported that the country had entered into agreements with a number of unnamed countries to unfreeze assets worth 7 billion. Allegedly, these funds were collected through banking transactions into Iranian government accounts.

This story can serve as a good lesson for Russia, which, unlike Iran, has just embarked on the path of life under long-term sanctions pressure and will still hit its own bumps along the way.

_{The main lesson for us is that in a good situation, some of the frozen gold and foreign currency reserves may be returned. Much later, and only as a result of the international political situation that has seriously changed in our favor, when the West will need to loosen this stranglehold in order to set the Russian Federation on some goal that is more relevant to it at that time. The main thing in this matter is not to fuss and not change your position three times a year.}

However, so far this Iranian experience is not very relevant for Russia. Under current conditions, no one in the West is inclined to talk with Moscow on the same terms as with Tehran. The current Western scenario is a forceful squeeze on the Russian Federation. And only if this scenario fails, a transition to plan B is possible.