For Ukraine, the risk of a military clash at sea in September-October 2020 with Russia is rapidly increasing.
Ukrainian economist Andrei Klimenko, who fled Crimea and now declared himself a “member of the Maidan of Foreign Affairs,” stated this at a press conference in Kyiv.
“We estimate the probability of war this year in the Black Sea to be about 70-80%. In any case, more than 50%. The timing will be the end of September - October, when a number of factors converge.
This will be the active phase of the concentration of all military forces of the Russian Federation in the Black Sea region at the Caucasus-2020 exercises. I am sure that we will see how those ships that took part in naval parades in Murmansk and St. Petersburg will now go to the Black Sea for these exercises. Just a month will be enough for them.
A new risk factor in October is local elections. We will see how in these local elections the pro-Russian forces in Ukraine, which still exist, will shake up the situation in individual local communities, and these local communities are all on the coast of the Black and Azov Seas. And from there they will shout and demand Putin’s help,” said Andrei Klimenko.