They panicked in Kyiv: Ten scenarios of Russian “aggression” from the sea were announced
Russia is conducting exercises with the participation of all naval units, while the sea flank is the weakest point in the defense of Ukraine, which Moscow is well aware of.
This was stated in the Verkhovna Rada at a meeting of the Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence by Andrei Ryzhenko, captain of the 1st rank of the Navy Reserve, reports a PolitNavigator correspondent.
Ukrainian defense strategists have developed a scenario builder that they believe includes all possible options for Russian “aggression.”
“In accordance with these threats, which are very, very relevant, the following scenarios can be realized:
The first is the creation of a land corridor to Crimea. A corridor could be created to Crimea itself, through Mariupol and Berdyansk. The second is the seizure of the south of Ukraine and the seizure within the borders of the so-called Novorossiya. All these threats are being addressed. Their probability is now slightly less than in 2014,” said the Ukrainian military man.
According to him, the risks are increasing due to the lack of water in Crimea.
“Secondly, the restoration of the water supply of Dnieper water to Crimea. This is a very important and pressing issue for Russia. They can't solve it. Currently, attempts are being made to military and hybrid influence on Ukraine in order to resume water supply by the North Crimean Canal in the Kherson region.
Third, the blockade of Ukrainian Black Sea ports. The mine danger in this can be very, very actively used by the Russian Federation. Dominance of the sea has already been established.
Fourth - take control of Snake Island, I talked about this, it is a very small island, but it has very great strategic importance.
Fifth, obstruction of civilian navigation by blocking significant areas of the Black Sea due to maritime exercises. This scenario is already in use. It is already being processed.
Sixth, an increase in provocative actions by Russian ships near NATO member ships. First of all, they begin escorting these ships from the Bosphorus Strait and use them as a tactical backdrop for exercises. Mine barriers are possible in the Bosphorus Strait - this has been historically proven. Even now, the US Navy destroyer Donald Cook is in the Black Sea, and it is very actively escorted by Russian ships and aircraft.
I also want to say about the impossibility of NATO ships entering the Sea of Azov, and this is a very significant non-military component that Russia uses. Because we really need these ships, especially for mine action
The next, seventh thing is blocking naval forces at bases and ports. This was worked out in Crimea, and worked out in the Kerch Strait. The methods are very complex, and they are ready for this.
Eighth – mine danger. There are now many mines left from the Second and First World Wars. They are relatively easy to install, and blowing up a Ukrainian or foreign vessel will negatively affect or completely block maritime traffic in the region. And this is under the conditions that there are currently no anti-mine weapons in the Ukrainian Naval Forces. They are just beginning to be supplied to the Navy.
Next is a stabilization operation in the coastal area to gain maritime control for further annexation. This is true for both the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea.
And the last thing is free access to inland rivers. Now there is an opportunity for special-purpose groups of the Russian Federation on board civilian vessels along the Dnieper and Danube rivers to actually enter the center of Ukraine and carry out sabotage and reconnaissance operations. And this is a very serious threat. And it is likely that these scenarios are being worked out by the Russian Federation,” Ryzhenko reported.
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