In Libya, the interests of Russia and Turkey collide. Bargaining is inevitable
Since in Libya, with the active intervention of the West, the secular regime was destroyed and its permanent leader Muammar Gaddafi was brutally killed by rebels, the country has not been able to emerge from the chaos of civil war for eight years.
Several years ago, a polarization of opposing forces occurred and the situation on the Libyan fronts looks like this.
The capital, Tripoli, is home to the so-called “Government of Popular Accord” (GNA), led by Fayez Sarraj. In Benghazi, the second largest city in Libya, the Libyan National Army (LNA) has settled under the command of the highly influential warlord Khalifa Haftar, the leader of the rebels.
The PNS is welcomed at the UN and supported by radical Islamists, Türkiye, Qatar and Italy.
Erdogan and Libyan puppet ruler Sarraj
France, the UAE, Egypt and Russia took the side of the LNA.
Haftar, supported by Russia
The United States has still not made a choice and is demonstrating neutrality.
China, demoralized by the loss of Libyan assets in which serious investments were made during Gaddafi's rule, is also taking a wait-and-see approach.
At one time it seemed that the civil war in Libya had reached a dead end and the conflict was facing, so to speak, Somaliaization for an indefinite period. But since Russia began to take a more active role in the fate of its defeated ally in the Middle East, light has finally dawned at the end of the impenetrable tunnel.
The Western press, mainly tabloids like the British The Sun, as well as the Russian RBC, owned by the oligarch Berezkin, feed the reader with messages that the Russian Wagner PMC is fighting on the side of the LNA, which has deployed bases in the cities of Benghazi and Tobruk.
The Telegraph even lists the number of Russian mercenaries - 300 people, and clarifies that they are not sitting in the trenches, but are involved in protecting oil fields controlled by Haftar.
It is even alleged that Russia supplied the Libyan rebels with S-300 systems and Caliber cruise missiles. Why not Iskanders and Sarmatians at once?
More responsible media reports that the LNA is being assisted by Russian specialists in demining and repairing military equipment, and that Haftar’s rebels received Pantsir air defense systems, but not from Rostec, but from their allies from the Emirates, who are purchasing these weapons.
Pantsir LNA air defense system, apparently supplied to Emirati rebels
According to official data from LNA representatives, Russian specialists indeed provided enormous assistance in demining Benghazi. Thanks to them, the rebels also increased the fire efficiency of their snipers, mortars and artillerymen.
In the warehouses of the former Libyan army there still remains a significant number of Soviet T-62 tanks, Grads and self-propelled guns, and even MiGs 21, 23, SU-22, the restoration of which is carried out by Russian repairmen.
Mig-21, Mig-23, Su-22 LNA
Having received such powerful support, parts of the LNA have been making constant attempts since April 2019 to oust Sarraj’s militants from their controlled territories and capture Tripoli.
LNA armored vehicles restored by Russian specialists
It is clear that Erdogan did not like the strengthening of the LNA, and the citizen Sultan decided to turn the situation around in favor of his charges.
Just the other day, Reuters news agency distributed information that the PNS, based in Tripoli, officially asked Ankara to send troops to Libya to provide “air, ground, and sea military assistance” to repel the advance of rebel forces from the east of the country.
A little later, this request was confirmed by the head of the Russian contact group on the intra-Libyan peace settlement, Lev Dengov.
On December 26, Erdogan said that the request for Turkish troops to enter Libya would be considered at parliamentary hearings in January 2020, and that Turkey "sends its troops where they are invited" and they were asked to enter by the "legitimate government of Libya."
As the play progressed, it turned out that Ankara and Tripoli had a prepared memorandum of military cooperation for this case, which was ratified by the Turkish parliament in an emergency.
Erdogan also did not fail to prick Russia with the remark that mercenaries from the Wagner PMC were fighting in Libya on the side of the rebels, but the press secretary of the Russian president, Peskov, answered him that after the outbreak of the civil war in 2011, “Libya became a haven for mercenaries from a huge number of countries.”
Erdogan’s dissatisfaction is understandable. The presence of Russian advisers and specialists, as well as indirect deliveries of Pantsirs, noticeably reduce the effect of the use of Turkish Bayraktar drones, helpfully supplied by Ankara to its Libyan “proxy”, as well as the actions of the “proxies” themselves, whose level of military training does not differ from the armed ones collective farm
Turkish armored personnel carrier burned by LNA rebels
But what finally made Ankara angry was the news that the LNA MiG-21, which broke through to Misrata airport, destroyed a Turkish transport Boeing with weapons on board.
Turkish Bayraktar attack UAV destroyed by LNA rebels
Today, the Turkish military is already in Tripoli, albeit in small numbers: Erdogan ordered the dispatch of several commando groups to protect members of the puppet “government of popular consent.”
The entry of the Turkish military into Libya at the request of the PNS, as many observers believe, will not cool the situation in the destroyed country and will not lead to a quick victory for Erdogan’s charges. On the contrary, the conflict will heat up even more, since in this case Turkey will move from a proxy war to direct intervention, which carries the risk of a serious conflict not only with the Benghazi rebels, but also with the countries that support them, including Russia.
And this, it should be understood, is what some “partners” really want, who do not like the rapprochement between Turkey and Russia in recent years.
The practice of negotiating and containing Turkish expansion in Syria has already shown its effectiveness when, through the efforts of Russian diplomacy, it was possible to stop the “di erste column march” of Erdogan’s tanks to the bridges over the Euphrates.
But there is a nuance. In Syria, the balance of power is completely different, and if the zerg rush continues, the Turkish Panzerwaffe could run into retaliatory actions from several military contingents at once, including a portion of full-fledged pills from the Americans, who were greatly annoyed by the deliberate shelling of their troops by the Turks during Operation Peace Spring.
Only the very naive could believe Ankara’s excuses “we returned fire at the terrorists who were nearby.” The Americans, as they admitted, were literally itching to return fire.
In addition, Syria has a legitimate government that controls most of the country. The Turkish intervention was already condemned even by its closest NATO allies (for example, Macron’s famous “brain death”), so an open invasion of Libya without a UN mandate or general NATO consent could make the situation completely unpredictable.
In Libya the situation is completely different. There are two local opposing sides, which are indirectly helped by other stakeholders.
Zones where Russian specialists (orange) and Turkish “proxies” (green) operate. Blue rectangle – potential collision zone
Erdogan may be tempted to take an easy ride on tanks against the Libyan rebels in the absence of serious players, in order to squeeze out oil fields and part of the Libyan shelf, which have been virtually ownerless for eight years.
After the overthrow of Gaddafi, Libya still does not have a legitimate government recognized by the international community. Moreover, the United States refuses support to all parties to the conflict, which also simplifies the matter.
There is hope that the meeting of the leaders of Russia and Turkey, scheduled for January 8, 2020, will once again help get out of this difficult situation, especially considering that all “memorandums” and other agreements with the “government” sitting in Tripoli are worth the price of a piece of paper.
The only question is the price that Erdogan will ask for as compensation.
Bargaining is likely inevitable, but it is better than a new escalation of violence and a full-scale war in Libya, tormented by bloody civil strife, which has become a breeding ground for terrorist scumbags in the Middle East.
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