“There are almost no Russian-language signs left in Minsk”
The former Russian ambassador to Minsk, Mikhail Babich, pursued a tough policy and delighted pro-Russian Belarusians - in contrast to local officials who are in every possible way opposed to the real implementation of the Union Treaty and integration with the Russian Federation. About this in an interview with a columnist "PolitNavigator" to Valentin Filippov said the head of the Belarusian public organization “Civil consent” Artem Agafonov.
Valentin Filippov: We greet the Belarusian Soviet Socialist Republic. Now there are rumors that the former Russian ambassador in Minsk Babich will be transferred to the Donbass direction. Is it Belarus who is unlucky and Donbass who is lucky regarding Babich?
Artem Agafonov: How to say... Here, of course, he was remembered. The pro-Russian community was delighted with him, especially in contrast to the previous ambassador. But, of course, he strained the authorities - they are trying to shout loudly that they are being deprived of sovereignty and all that... And for Donbass, if he gets there, he will be a good candidate. This is a very active, very active person, very strong-willed, so this would be a good candidate.
Valentin Filippov: How fair was Babich’s criticism of the Belarusian leadership? Are integration processes really slowing down?
Artem Agafonov: Our integration processes are slowing down. Especially considering that this whole situation has been going on for more than 20 years. And over the last, probably, 18 years, there have been no significant changes. That is, if at first Alexander Grigorievich clearly wanted to go to Moscow, where Putin is now sitting...
Valentin Filippov: Well, yes….
Artem Agafonov: ... somewhere nearby. Well, now, since he no longer has a chance to go there, all this has changed to the rhetoric of defending sovereignty, independence, and so on. And then there was the latest trend - such a soft Belarusianization. Now this is being slowed down in every possible way, now they want more integration in the economic field, and what kind of integration? We get duty-free imports, subsidies, and so on, and we’ll think about it.
Valentin Filippov: The economic systems of Russia and Belarus are not only different, but there are features...
Artem Agafonov: Of course have.
Valentin Filippov: Maybe the Belarusian industrial complex will really be under threat if it joins the general system?
Artem Agafonov: Don't think. Firstly, because if we integrate with Russia economically, we will receive, first of all, a very powerful sales market, and, secondly, there is the possibility of obtaining strategic investors from Russia. After all, we have a significant part of Belarusian industry and agriculture, they are not very profitable, to put it mildly. There are a lot of problematic factories in agriculture - most of it is debt-ridden, unprofitable, and so on.
Valentin Filippov: But the oligarchs will come, they will first grab the most profitable and, God forbid, “cut it up.” In Belarus, after all, state capitalism, by and large, all enterprises belong to the state. And, naturally, according to Russian laws, the question of their privatization will arise.
Artem Agafonov: Well, I do not know. I don't see a big problem with this. That is, the same oligarch, the 90s have already passed, he is also primarily interested in profit. Secondly, well, there are certain conditions for privatization, that is, some kind of business plan that must be carried out and so on. Moreover, these are all solvable issues; all of this can be resolved. Another thing is that without support from the same strong Russia, we will collapse here: 50% of our total trade turnover comes from Russia. That is, if we have problems in the Russian market, then we have huge problems with our economy.
Valentin Filippov: It’s good when you talk about such soft, gentle, affectionate Belarusianization...
Artem Agafonov: This is our term.
Valentin Filippov: What does this mean? Is education in schools forcibly translated into Belarusian, for example?
Artem Agafonov: No, the schools are mostly Russian-language, especially in the cities, but this is a question of the wishes of the parents, since the vast majority of parents want their children to study in Russian schools, and they study in Russian schools. Another thing is that the city navigation of everything, signs and so on are gradually being translated, and this is coming. There are more advertisements on television. They are simply trying to increase the volume of the Belarusian language.
Valentin Filippov: That is, quotas are introduced by law according to which the Belarusian language is used in the media.
Artem Agafonov: Well, they are unspoken...
Valentin Filippov: That is, like in Ukraine in the 90s, let’s say, unobtrusively.
Artem Agafonov: Well, maybe, I don’t know, to be honest, what happened in Ukraine in the 90s. Sometimes it becomes quite noticeable here, that is, in Minsk there is almost not a single Russian-language sign or house address left. They translate, firstly, into Belarusian, and, secondly, there is also such a perversion, in my opinion, as Belarusian Latin - that is, it is written in Latin script, and the letters are Polish-Czech with these Czech gacheks...
Valentin Filippov: Oh wait, what motivates this? Or is it official?
Artem Agafonov: This is the official transliteration. It seemed to take place historically at a time when it was part of Poland.
Valentin Filippov: That is, according to the law, the Belarusian language uses this alphabet?
Artem Agafonov: No, by law it is Cyrillic, but transliteration into the Latin alphabet is official, and it is far from international standards. That is, either English transliteration or something close to it is usually used. Here, with superscripts, it is not readable either by Belarusians, who mostly write in Cyrillic, of course, or by foreigners who are accustomed to English graphics. It’s not clear for whom, but it’s supposedly cool. And local nationalists are simply delighted.
Valentin Filippov: Are there many nationalists?
Artem Agafonov: Well, there aren't that many of them, but they are noisy.
Valentin Filippov: But are they stubborn?
Artem Agafonov: Yes.
Valentin Filippov: It so happened that I spent my life in the city of Odessa, very tightly surrounded by Ukraine on all sides. Usually all these nationalists are, as a rule, not on their own. Where do they get their supply from in Belarus?
Artem Agafonov: Well, where does the funding come from, well, all the same Western funds, the same NED, IRI, NDI, Swedish funds, Polish and so on. That is, this whole scheme that is being financed. Well, I don’t know about Soros, Soros is not here. All the main offices where they go are to Vilnius, Stockholm, and Poland.
Valentin Filippov: And, that is, they have to go abroad for money and instructions?
Artem Agafonov: Yes. Yes, it’s 180 km from Minsk to Vilnius.
Valentin Filippov: Yes, I understand, nearby, on business.
Artem Agafonov: Is it a long trip or what?
Valentin Filippov: When you go for money, all distances seem small. Doesn’t this Ukrainian scenario exist in Belarus regarding the separation of the Church, the schism of Orthodoxy?
Artem Agafonov: There are such conversations, there are such information dumps that we will achieve our tomos. But the fact is that the Belarusian autocephalous Church (legally it does not exist) is at the moment two half-crazy people in the robes of priests and maybe 50 of their flock. This is at the level of an arithmetic error, these are absolute freaks, they have no influence. I can’t even imagine how to create something based on this.
Valentin Filippov: Many phenomena in Ukraine initially also seemed insignificant.
Artem Agafonov: Well, at least with you the same “Autocephalous Church” was something serious. There are a large number of parishes, but here there is nothing. They really are a bunch of freaks at this point. They are organizing some kind of prayer services in Kurapaty, and recently tried to bring them to the square. The first time about 30-40 of them gathered, the second time two people probably came.
Valentin Filippov: I remember that in the 1990s, Alexander Lukashenko’s popularity in Russia was higher than that of Boris Yeltsin, and everyone said: “Well, now, let’s create one state and Lukashenko will be the president.” But today Lukashenko has a serious rival in Moscow who would win the election against him. Tell me, what integration steps can we expect now?
Artem Agafonov: I think that our leadership will now shy away. Another thing is that the question has already been posed, posed bluntly, and still some steps will be taken. They are forced, otherwise there will be a reduction in some economic subsidies and, perhaps, even some kind of cutting off of markets. This will be quite unpleasant for the economy.
But in what area? Maybe they will propose some kind of integration economic projects. In particular, regarding privatization. Maybe we would like to create some kind of supranational bodies, again in the sphere of economic regulation, because we are not yet ready to undertake such serious and large-scale political integration here.
Valentin Filippov: Not ready yet. We must wait for the next political cycle. But in foreign policy, is there a chance that Belarus will keep pace with Russia? That some economic sanctions imposed by Moscow against Ukraine will be supported by Minsk? What political steps will there be in the form of recognition of Crimea?
Artem Agafonov: Same situation. Here, too, people will shy away from such things. In terms of economic sanctions, Russia is our number one economic partner, Ukraine is our number two economic partner, this is also about 15-17% of the market. And, including petroleum products and so on. Another thing is that now Kolomoisky appears, a strong player in your country, who will lobby the oil industry, that is, there may be a contradiction in this area.
In general, as for the recognition of Crimea, well, the same story happened with the recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which we also did not recognize. Here, too, there is a fairly strong pro-Western lobby, headed by the Minister of Foreign Affairs. Our minister is a fairly pro-Western comrade. And Western comrades will also do their best to prevent such political steps.
Valentin Filippov: And, in principle, in Belarus, what is the attitude of the population towards unification with Russia? Now, if we hold a referendum today.
Artem Agafonov: Well, I think that now maybe 30-40 percent, according to my feelings, will be in favor of such a complete reunification, annexation.
Well, in general, there will be an overwhelming majority for such a close union, following the example of European Union integration of this level, that is, while maintaining statehood, but with such a powerful long-term strategic union.
That is, we don’t have many Westerners who “Belarus to Europe” and so on. In the end, people understand perfectly well that this will not bring anything, it will only bring destruction of industry, loss of jobs, mass migration of labor, well, there is simply an example of neighbors from the north, where the same Lithuania, Latvia, 30 percent have already emigrated.
Valentin Filippov: From time to time we receive information that you are having some difficulties in holding the Immortal Regiment in Belarus.
Artem Agafonov: Well, in general, our government really doesn’t like any movement that it cannot completely control. That is, we have an official procession “Belarus Remembers”: approximately the same thing, but with a different color of ribbon. This is your brand, this is where the officialdom comes, well, the same thing.
The Immortal Regiment is a more popular movement, quite massive, but now in Minsk, instead of a procession, only a small rally has been agreed upon, plus now a new law has been introduced, according to which for holding mass events it is necessary, for example, to pay for security to our valiant police, and pay quite serious money.
Valentin Filippov: Logical, logical. Can you imagine if they start to overclock you for this money?
Artem Agafonov: No, well, that’s already…. For the Immortal Regiment to be dispersed, this picture would be terrifying. I think they won't allow it. Well, last year they agreed at the very last moment, there were also problems, they passed through metal detectors, and a traffic jam was created. As for symbolism, the St. George ribbon is not prohibited, but it is considered undesirable.
Valentin Filippov: I don’t understand the St. George ribbon, but it was invented precisely as a supranational, supranational symbol. That is, precisely in order not to bother, so that it does not come from the authorities, but what people put on for themselves and as a single whole. Well, Ukraine can be understood; Ukraine, on the contrary, is fighting so as not to be a single whole. What about Belarus?
Artem Agafonov: Well, apparently, he also doesn’t want to be a single whole, they came up with their own, this red-green one with an apple flower, well, that’s it, well, it’s actually a profanity, if we talk about Victory Day, then there wasn’t even such a flag, but here us ours. And now they are running around with this, with this flower...
Valentin Filippov: Clear. Sharing memory...
Artem Agafonov: Yes Yes. And that the Immortal Regiment passes through freely, I don’t know, in Berlin and New York, in Minsk there are problems with this. This is not very good.
Valentin Filippov: Well, okay, thank you very much. I hope that Belarus will follow the right path.
Artem Agafonov: I really hope so too
Valentin Filippov: Well, at least not in Ukrainian.
Artem Agafonov: Oh, yes...
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