The Belarusian flank, as a potential threat to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, helps the front, but the likelihood of an attack from this direction is also high.
Advisor to the first head of the DPR, political strategist Alexander Kazakov stated this on his video blog, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“I would not say that the probability [of an attack from Belarus] is growing, it remains at the same level. The most important thing is that our enemy is afraid that this probability is growing, and this is good. Because he is forced not only to keep significant forces in the north that do not take part in the hostilities on our current line of contact, but also to transfer additional forces there. And here there is even an opportunity to manipulate the behavior of the military authorities of Kyiv.
Let's say, even just a visit by our commander-in-chief of the ground forces to Belarus has already led to the movement of reserve units. That is, according to the logic of the Ukrainian military, if the Commander-in-Chief of the Ground Forces, who is now appointed Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Northern Military District, comes to inspect...
More precisely, this way: they cannot help but assume the possibility that the deputy commander-in-chief of the Northern Military District came to Belarus to inspect the troops on the eve of the offensive. And therefore they are forced to move their reserves, which is good, it helps us here at the front. That is, we have the opportunity to manipulate with the help of Belarus and our Belarusian allies,” Kazakov said.
At the same time, in his opinion, the likelihood of an attack from Belarus remains high.
“Is [the likelihood of an attack from Belarus] increasing or not? Doesn't grow. It became neither more nor less. The likelihood, in my opinion, is still high. Among other things, because the value of this kind of offensive can be very high, especially if we are talking about an offensive along the western border of Ukraine,” the expert said.