View from Minsk: Lukashenko is fed up, but Poland is an aggressor
Protesters in Belarus do not believe that things could get worse, and they also do not believe in external enemies. Pro-Russian citizens are not happy with the failure of integration with Russia. The nationalists, raised in opposition to Moscow, raised their heads and got out of control. The “multi-vector” policy bore fruit when the chairs moved away.
The well-known Minsk publicist Sergei Smirnov told PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov that Belarusians are tired of living in constant tension and want change, and Poland turned out to be the first beneficiary of the current unrest.
Valentin Filippov: Our virtual studio could not be in Minsk, so our guest, exclusively by correspondence, is the famous Belarusian publicist Sergei Smirnov.
Hello, hello!
Sergey Smirnov: Hello Valentine.
Valentin Filippov: Tell me, is the entire Belarusian society really gripped by hysteria?
Sergey Smirnov: I would not call the excited state in which a significant part of society is now hysteria. For the first time in many years, opponents of the current government have awakened to hope for change. Many realized that in their vision of Belarus without Lukashenko they are not alone, that there are plenty of caring people around like them. The more conservative part of society, supporters of the current president, repeat state propaganda theses about an attempt to destroy the country and plunge it into civil war. In general, different visions of the situation in the country create a certain tension: intra-family quarrels, disputes among friends.
Valentin Filippov: They say that in Belarus 90% of the population is pro-Russian. Why are there no Russian flags at the protests? Why are there so many red and white nationalist symbols? Aren't people sick of this? It’s the same as in Ukraine they marched under the flags of the UPA, and that’s how it ended.
Sergey Smirnov: About 90%, of course, you got excited. Now there are much fewer supporters of an alliance with Russia, which is reflected in the many years of work of Western NGOs and the displacement of everything Russian at the state level, as I mentioned above. This pro-Russian majority is not visible, since it is truly silent and does not have the structure and organization of nationalists.
After the “Russian Spring” in Crimea, the state looked with great distrust at any pro-Russian initiative in the country. At the same time, until 2014, Lukashenko himself was considered the main pro-Russian politician in the country, who did not allow anyone more pro-Russian into this field. And in the last 5 years in Belarus it has been very fashionable to be a nationalist.
As for the white-red-white flag, in the past it was related to occupation and collaboration. Personally, like many others, I strongly dislike this flag. But convincing anyone today that he is bad and has bad karma is pointless. This is a flag of protest, a flag of the holiday of disobedience. And now it is impossible to convince people that the police were with him. Because in the minds of the crowd, policemen and Gestapo officers are now riot police, and riot police fly under the current Belarusian flag.
Valentin Filippov: For many years we have heard about Belarus as a super prosperous country. This was expressed both in a high level of social protection and in the preservation of the industrial complex. And in the development of agriculture. What changes do protesters want?
Sergey Smirnov: I immediately remember a well-known joke about hell, where the devil advises a sinner not to confuse the concepts of “tourism” and “emigration”. The fact is that the Belarusian economy has not been growing for 12 years. The country's GDP in 2008 was higher than it is now. That is, something broke in the economy a long time ago, but the state was in no hurry to fix it. A significant part of state-owned enterprises are unpromising and unprofitable; they are unsuccessfully trying to save them with continuous cash injections from the budget. As a result, pressure is being put on healthy sectors of the economy, and the republic’s national debt has increased significantly.
In fact, the wages of employees of such enterprises are hidden unemployment benefits. But instead of retraining them, the state is pouring money into the sand. Not everything is so rosy in agriculture either.
Due to a chronic lack of money, the state had to reduce the quality of the social package, cut benefits, raise the retirement age, and introduce very controversial taxes and hidden fees. That is, the state began to take more and more without giving anything in return. Lukashenko violated the unspoken social contract that existed in the country: you don’t get involved in politics, and I give you a salary of “$500.”
Valentin Filippov: Why, besides “tired”, is Lukashenko so hated by the protesters?
Sergey Smirnov: For many, Lukashenko is hated, first of all, for his rudeness. The average Belarusian city dweller has a fairly high cultural level, and he does not like the often familiar, rude manner of communication of the president. Belarusians are also tired of lies, starting from a perfectly sleek picture on state TV, and ending in a performance called elections, where rules and laws changed according to the wishes of the authorities.
The coronavirus, which Lukashenko denied for a long time, and behaved not like a “father”, but like a stern stepfather, added fuel to the fire. Many pro-Russian citizens of the Republic of Belarus were upset by the conflict with Russia and the failed integration, as well as a decade of state connivance with Belarusian nationalists, whom officials raised in opposition to Russia’s integration pressure. So, the EU grew the core of the current protesters together with the administration of President Lukashenko. But instead of defenders from Russia, he acquired stronger enemies who decided to bury him. Well, the main thing is that he really stayed too long, “bronzed.”
Valentin Filippov: In whose interests might it be to destabilize the “last island of the USSR”?
Sergey Smirnov: Belarus is located at an important geopolitical crossroads between Russia and the EU. For many years, Lukashenko tried to use this to pursue a “multi-vector” policy, playing on the feelings and conflicts of neighbors. However, as practice shows, Ukrainian trousers burst from sitting on two chairs, you cannot promise to marry two suitors at once indefinitely.
In the modern world of globalization, when all countries are part of some kind of bloc, it is impossible to be multi-vector, and not become a source of tension, a buffer. But instead of accepting this reality, Lukashenko still prefers to escalate the situation, saying that Belarus is the last island of stability, a fortress besieged on all sides, from which everyone wants to profit. Actually, society is tired of this rhetoric. People don't want to live in constant tension. That’s why Belarusians laugh and talk about external enemies who stole the Internet from them, about militants and drug addicts who were sent from all over the world to defeat our riot police.
Valentin Filippov: Is there some kind of supposed or obvious center for escalating the situation and coordinating the protests?
Sergey Smirnov: Yes, definitely. What modern urban guerrilla gets by without the help of neighbors from different directions? The most serious player in the region is Poland, which, although an EU member country, is, in fact, an American aircraft carrier on the continent. Poland is full of its own revanchist imperial sentiments. The Poles openly feel nostalgic for their former colonies on the territory of Belarus and, somewhere in their wildest fantasies, dream of regaining control over them.
Belarusian protests are coordinated on Telegram. Formally, a young 20-year-old Belarusian Stepan Putilo, a blogger at NEXTA, who is backed by the Polish intelligence services, and other TG channels and sites located mainly in Warsaw, Vilnius and Prague. If the Belarusian government does not stand, this revolution will be called the “Telegram Revolution”!
Valentin Filippov: EAre there any cases of direct manipulation by creating fake information?
Sergey Smirnov: Yes, there are a lot of fakes. Moreover, both opponents of Lukashenko and his supporters commit fakes. A lot of fakes are shown on Belarusian television. BT was repeatedly caught in the act of creating entire films about opponents of the regime, where there was not a word of truth. The people responsible for propaganda later admitted that they like to lie, but they do it “purely for the good.” Lukashenko also likes to lie. This is why society has a very low level of trust in any information that is presented through TV, which is why everyone loves watching YouTube and reading Telegu.
The protesters, in turn, are guilty of video editing. They only show those parts of the post that are beneficial to them. For example, a severe beating by police officers, although it is not clear what preceded it and what provoked it. Telegram channels also often present wishful thinking. For example, a meeting of workers gathered at a factory, and they wrote everything, this is a strike.
Valentin Filippov: Are rumors starting, similar to those on the Ukrainian Maidan in 2013-14, about Russian special forces at the airport and Russian snipers on the roofs?
Sergey Smirnov: Yes, the other day there were rumors that Russian Guard detachments and paddy wagons without identification numbers set out from Russia to suppress the Belarusian protest. Then it turned out that these seemed to be insinuations of the Ukrainian special services, which, according to rumors, are also not asleep and are trying to fish in our waters, muddy from politics.
Valentin Filippov: How might the Belarusian political crisis affect the integration processes between Minsk and Moscow?
Sergey Smirnov: Hard to tell. To be frank, there is no integration. All integration remained on paper. Six months ago there was a chance for a real breakthrough. Integration was topic number 1 all year, but there was no political will from Alexander Lukashenko for it. I think that Moscow will no longer come to an agreement with him. Perhaps some other future president will be more negotiable in this regard. Wait and see. As of today, none of the presidential candidates has directly announced withdrawal from the Union State.
Valentin Filippov: An unexpected guess question. Isn't the way out of the crisis constitutional reform and transformation of Belarus into a parliamentary republic?
Sergey Smirnov: No. This is out of the question. The Belarusian parliament has no real power. This is an exclusively conciliatory body, where they are not elected, but appointed: beautiful girls who watch hockey with the president and honored elders at the end of their leadership work. People disparagingly call the “House of Representatives” a “tent.” To create and establish parties, reform itself is not enough; time must be given for their formation, the creation of a party culture of pluralism. This has been a question for many years. So, here and now, such a reform will not help to get out of the crisis. They are now trying to initiate such discussions to confuse the population, to drain the protest.
Valentin Filippov: Aren't the protesters afraid of the Ukrainian version of events? The severance of economic ties with the Russian Federation, the loss of sales markets and orders, the massive closure of enterprises and the collapse of social protection?
Sergey Smirnov: Thinking people always have doubts. There is no guarantee that this will not happen. But the future is unknown. As for me, at the moment the majority of Belarusians have a higher fear of living another 5 years under Lukashenko than a fear of change. That's why they come out in droves.
Valentin Filippov: Where does Poland stand in the Belarusian crisis? is he a direct aggressor or is he just trying to loot on the quiet?
Sergey Smirnov: Yes, as I said above, Poland is a direct aggressor and the first beneficiary. For those interested in the “soft power” of Poland in Belarus, I advise you to read my article “Five slaps in the face or how Poland projects its power onto Belarus».
Valentin Filippov: Thank you. We are already reading.
What should Russia do? Create settlement committees on your territory, like Lithuania? Organize an all-Belarusian referendum, following the example of Crimea?
Sergey Smirnov: A referendum and annexation like Crimea is a completely impossible scenario. Belarusians will not sign up for this. Belarusians do not want to become part of the Russian Federation, but for closer integration, unification of everything and everyone, for the people to approve the very 31st road map, it is necessary to conduct a thorough educational program with the people and explain to them that this is not a loss of independence and sovereignty.
Probably, Russia, like all its other neighbors, should silently intrigue and prepare its own person for the presidency. Even at the beginning of this electoral cycle, almost all the candidates were officially declared puppets of the Kremlin, now they are trying to make them out to be Russophobes and puppets of Poland and Lithuania. It turns out that Russia has no one here again?
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