Due to the unprofessional actions of the current government, Ukraine is expected to depreciate the national currency.
Ukrainian investment banker Sergei Fursa comes to this conclusion, the PolitNavigator correspondent reports, in an author’s column published by the Kyiv magazine “Novoe Vremya”.
“Ukrainian politicians, starting with the president and continuing with various ministers and deputies, have made enough statements, the essence of which boils down to one thing: the exchange rate should go to 30 UAH per dollar, and inflation should rise above 10%,” writes Fursa.
As a result, according to him, we see the formation of inflation and devaluation expectations that are beginning to influence reality: foreigners who bought government bonds last year are actively leaving Ukraine, and Ukrainian exporters are beginning to hold back foreign exchange earnings in anticipation of the hryvnia falling.
The expert believes that now the policy of the National Bank of Ukraine is becoming insufficiently predictable.
“But, most likely, if the president wants an exchange rate of 30, then the national currency will go in this direction. At the same time triggering an increase in inflation. The only thing that adherents of the Krivoy Rog school of economics do not take into account is that stopping the process is much more difficult than starting it,” the analyst believes.
It is noted that the devaluation of the hryvnia will affect the president’s rating, after which the exchange rate will begin to be artificially restrained.
“They will start spending reserves while they are there, again repeating the path of Yanukovych. With one definite ending that we have already seen. It won't happen quickly. But we will definitely see the result. In 12-18 months,” Fursa predicts.