View from Chisinau: A very formal victory for the West in Moldova
The president will change in Moldova. The second round of elections was won – and by a significant margin – by the candidate from the pro-American Action and Solidarity party, Maia Sandu. The team of the losing Igor Dodon - still the current president - is scaring voters with a tough turn towards the West. However, there is a feeling that the Westerners have caught themselves in a trap and now they will definitely not be able to really “steer” Moldova. Let's figure out why.
“She didn’t win, but he lost”
First of all, we are not talking about the victory of the pro-Western electorate. Already the first round showed that there are one and a half times fewer pro-Western voters in Moldova than pro-Russian ones. And if another pro-Russian candidate had ended up in the second round instead of Dodon, who had accumulated a considerable personal anti-rating, it would have been much more difficult for Maia Sandu.
In recent weeks, both voters and observers have seen that Sandu is not at all engaged in consolidating the right-wing electorate. Instead, she diligently flirted with voters on the “left” - with Russian speakers, with pensioners...
In order to win, Sandu had to actively use the theme of uniting society. Many other “leftists” also contributed to this. Both public figures and extra-parliamentary opposition. Now Sandu simply cannot afford to be “too right” - this will instantly be perceived by society as a betrayal.
An analysis of the election results – primarily in those regions of Moldova that are traditionally considered pro-Russian – shows that Sandu’s victory is not a victory for the West. Too many voters that Dodon could have counted on either voted against him for Sandu, or simply did not go to the polls.
No, it was not the West that helped Sandu win. It was the pro-Russian voter who allowed her to win. And now he will closely monitor the actions of the new president.
There will be no Maidan, the prerequisites are over
In order to take control of Moldova, it was not enough for the American curators to gain control of the presidency. The President in Moldova has too few powers (or rather, almost no powers). It is not even allowed to propose a candidate for prime minister to the “head of state” - more precisely, only the one proposed by the parliamentary majority is allowed.
Neither Sandu personally nor the pro-Western forces in general control the parliament. True, Maia Sandu went to the elections with a promise to achieve the dissolution of parliament and early parliamentary elections. But there is a nuance here.
Sandu’s curators hoped for a “Moldavian Maidan.” Let's say Sandu would have been just a little short of victory. Then it would be possible to refer to violations, create a riot in the center of Chisinau, “drive” Dodon out of the presidency and, already in such a situation, achieve early parliamentary elections, take everything at once.
So good it's even bad
Or another option - let Sandu win the second round, but at the expense of the “golden voice” of the diaspora. Then, perhaps, Dodon’s supporters would come to the center of Chisinau, clashes would begin... this is the scenario of the American curators (especially now, after Biden's victory in the USA ) would have arranged even more.
And the diaspora really was on horseback. More than 250 thousand Moldovans voted abroad - a historical record! But the problem is that their votes did not decide anything, because... Dodon lost in Moldova even without taking into account the diaspora.
Yes, it is misfortune, not joy. The most spectacular move of the diaspora became spectacular, not effective. The Diaspora will now demand so much from the new president. But the curators who hoped for the Maidan can only complain: “Everything is so good with us that it’s already bad!”
The only one who is sincerely happy is Maia Sandu herself. She was very afraid of participating in the Maidan, in clashes. Not because she is afraid of shed people’s blood (other people’s problems have never stopped her) - it’s just that Mrs. Sandu is not at all as brave and selfless a person as political strategists portray her.
However, Sandu has one more issue to resolve. Its agitators (including deputies and activists of veterans' organizations) staged a vile performance at the polling stations intended for Transnistria. They insulted voters and threatened them. They also shouted to foreign observers the openly fascist slogan “Suitcase, station, Russia!”
And why was it worth the “unifier of society” to disgrace herself like that? Well, about 30 thousand Pridnestrovians voted in the elections (and almost five thousand of them for Sandu!), Dodon lost with them and without them. And you will still have to answer for your dogs - the foreign community is very closely monitoring such “pleasant” things as provocations in frozen conflict zones.
The left concedes and wins?
The outgoing President of Moldova (and also the President of the local chess federation) Igor Dodon often liked to call all his controversial actions a kind of “gambit”. Forgetting that the true chess gambit is the sacrifice of material in order to go on the offensive.
The left-wing voters of Moldova seem to have played a real gambit without any agreement. Maia Sandu was given the presidency - a post that does not decide anything, but requires a lot. She will also be asked for her election promises, and most importantly, she will be required to play the role of president of the entire people, and not just Westerners.
But in early parliamentary elections - and now there will certainly be one (most likely in the summer of next year) the situation can change very much.
There is such a stereotype - in the Moldovan parliament there is usually one large left party (sometimes two, if the left flank is undergoing reformatting) and several small right ones that unite against it. In the parliament of the new convocation, everything may for the first time become completely opposite.
Already the first round has shown that Maia Sandu’s Action and Solidarity party will remain the only one vying to get into parliament. The rest will fly by. That is, Sandu will be able to count on a maximum of forty mandates out of one hundred and one. Most likely, he will receive even less, because a bunch of small right-wing parties, although they won’t get into parliament, are “biting off” votes.
But on the left flank everything is much more interesting.
Dodon, who will return to the chairmanship of the Party of Socialists (he refused this post for the duration of his presidency), will enter parliament. Yes, the faction will be smaller than now, but he still has administrative and media resources, and photos with the mega-popular Russian leader in Moldova Vladimir Putin have been preserved from better times.
Ilan Shor with the “party named after himself” will also retain his registration in parliament. His party will apparently be strengthened by the “center-left” wing of the disintegrating Democrats. And polls show that the rating remains the same for entering parliament.
Renato Usatii took a confident third place in the presidential elections, and this is a good foundation for the parliamentary elections. Yes, support in the second round Maia Sandu's clearly right-wing attitude will not allow him to achieve additional rating growth. But his party will be able to break into parliament.
And there is also the “Civil Congress” party, created by former communist deputies (Mark Tkachuk, Yuri Muntyan, Zurab Todua, Mikhail Polyansky). “Congressmen” at one time opposed the demarche of the Communist Party, which turned its back on Russia. The people remembered that people who could have remained silent and remained deputies chose not to do so and left politics for a long time. Now that they have returned to politics, this image guarantees a sufficient percentage of voters who are disillusioned with other “left” voters.
So, the next parliament will be left-wing. 60 mandates out of 101 – and this is still the minimum result.
And pro-Western President Maia Sandu will have to look at all this and think about which of the pro-Russian forces to negotiate with so as not to be completely left on the sidelines.
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