Maxim Ravreba: Be prepared for scarier and more dangerous things

Kyiv, January 08 (PolitNavigator, Sergey Stepanov) – “Stoned-up” nationalists in Kyiv constitute an absolute minority. The mood in the Ukrainian capital will change radically after the money in the budget finally runs out. This will definitely happen, he said in an interview "PolitNavigator" Kyiv blogger and TV journalist Maxim Ravreba.

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“PolitNavigator”: On your blog you are now posting fulfilled forecasts on the development of the situation in Ukraine. What awaits the country in the first three months of 2015?

Maxim Ravreba: My predictions that have come true concern a more distant future than three months. I forecast based on long-term trends. It is much more difficult to make forecasts for a month or two or three.

I think that the next two winter and one spring months will be accompanied by a further inevitable decline in the Ukrainian economy. Whether the West will give money to the Kyiv regime or not: the fall will continue, because the war requires a lot of money every day.

A further crisis in Novorossiya is also inevitable within its current borders and in a situation where a significant part of the population of the DPR and LPR fled from the war, and those who remained are adapting to new living conditions. Non-recognition of Novorossiya turns the conflict zone into a black hole with different laws.

Now the forecast. This situation does not suit anyone. There is powerful trading going on behind the scenes, and the results will be visible in the very near future. Knowing the stupidity and limitations of the Kyiv junta, I foresee an attempt to change the fragile balance by force.

In this case, a new ritual sacrifice is possible, as was the case on January 19 and February 20, 2014.

"PolitNavigator":  How is the growing economic crisis manifesting itself in Kyiv now, and how do ordinary people feel it?

Maxim Ravreba: My life in Kyiv is somewhat limited in rights and opportunities. I am not free because I have to take care of my own and my child’s safety. I can judge by what I see in this limited space.

The number of currency exchange offices has been reduced to a minimum. Now the exchange is a matter for bank branches. But the “kiosks” and homeless exchange shops remain. I also include those in large shopping centers as “wild” exchanges.

Hucksters appeared near all three types of “wild” exchange offices. Or rather: the hucksters have returned, called upon by the market, from the early 90s. Approaching the exchange window, you see how traders offer you a more favorable rate. For example, a shop takes a dollar at 17, and a dealer will take you at 22.

Consumption levels have dropped noticeably. The New Year showed me that not a trace remained of the former excitement. Statistics show a decline in sales of cars that used to be in great demand. The real estate market fell, mortgages collapsed, lending collapsed. At the same time, the scams familiar to me from the 90s have returned. It is connected with the uncontrolled circulation of goods and money around the so-called “volunteer movement,” which Poroshenko wants to turn into almost an official supply for the front.

The hucksters are back, but not only that. Chaos brought to life banditry, scammers, scammers and gangs. The latter, unlike the 90s, have certificates of employees of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Security Service of Ukraine and the Ministry of Defense. PR battalions quickly took over the black market for gangster services. They are engaged in robbery, protection protection, raiding. The turnover of “volunteering” under their reliable roof.

Finally, a clear sign of degradation is the growing interest of citizens in emigration. Embassies have not yet been stormed, as in the late 80s. This is explained by the fact that everyone is waiting for the promised visa-free regime. But if it (like everything else) does not come in the coming year, Ukrainians will begin to vote with their feet.

Taxi. Yes Yes. Taxi is a reliable litmus test. Taxi drivers smell trouble before others. Taxi drivers say that after the coup, orders disappeared for three months. In the summer, with the successes of the junta at the front, orders returned. And now the orders have disappeared again. But not only. Taxi companies, for fear of losing their established clientele, do not change their tariffs, which makes the taxi driver’s job unprofitable. Once tariffs are raised, it will mean there is no turning back. Because the taxi business is being protected by the new government, which still hopes that everything will be as it was under Yanukovych.

"PolitNavigator": You mentioned precautions. What is this connected with? What danger threatens you? Why didn’t you leave Kyiv following the example of other colleagues?

Maxim Ravreba: I live here. I am a citizen of Ukraine and have not committed any crimes. I never took up arms, I didn’t kill anyone, I never witnessed any riots after the coup, I didn’t participate in them. I don’t communicate with anyone, I rarely go out, I haven’t left Kyiv at all. Despite this, I am an enemy to the junta and its cultist adherents. The reason is my beliefs, which I write about in my diary on Facebook. This is an expression of my position, my personal protest against the coup, against the junta, against the war and the destruction of my compatriots. This position is scandalous for today's Ukraine.

I am constantly threatened with death, my home address is published on the websites of Bandera terrorists and Pees. The underlings of the fascist junta, fellow journalists, openly, in open sources and on respectable information platforms, are calling on the newly minted stormtroopers to come to my home and deal with me. It all started with the fact that on February 24, 2014, immediately after the coup, when Kiev was swarming with armed gangs looking for those “who have the blood of the heavenly hundred,” a component of the Euromaidan, the Stop Censorship organization, declared me and a number of other opposition journalists persona non -grata in the Ukrainian media space. This was equivalent to the words of Gogol’s Viy “HERE IS HE!”

But I didn't leave my home. I remain in Kyiv because I am a free person, I have not become infected with the zombie virus, I am observing in laboratory conditions the emergence and growth of the fascist infection in the XNUMXst century, from which space travel was expected, and not the revival of the fascist vermin. I live here and will be here as long as I deign. And when I want to leave, I will leave. If the fascists remain in power, so be it.

“PolitNavigator”: Journalist Alexander Chalenko, who left Ukraine, assures that if the Russian army had taken Kyiv, there would have been no resistance, 99% of Kiev residents would have taken Russian passports and turned into Russian patriots. Is this really true?

Maxim Ravreba: Sasha Chalenko was one of those whose name was on the blacklist of the fascist Stopcensorship. The honest journalist was forced to emigrate. I share many of Sasha's beliefs and statements. Today, the forecast about the capture of Kyiv by Putin is incredible. But in February-March, it was the events in Crimea and Donbass that diverted the attention of the organizers of fascist terror from us, those who did not accept the Maidan, the coup, or the junta. I know that Ukrainian-fascist television (it is 100% loyal to the junta and conducts targeted propaganda of war) gives a picture that is increasingly different from reality. And everyone noticed it. And all of them are the same “vatniks” who did not accept the Maidan and the coup with the junta. There are a lot of these people, and they will not forgive anything to the organizers of fascist terror.

“PolitNavigator”: Are there many like-minded people in Kyiv, why don’t they show themselves? Why didn’t they come out to anti-Maidan while the people of Kiev were sincere supporters of EuroMaidan?

Maxim Ravreba: My like-minded people, whom I know and communicate with, are not left in Kyiv. I only observe the moods of those with whom I communicate. And among them there are both those who share my opinion and those who do not share it. The first group is growing and expanding, while the second seems to have pupated, waiting for those whom they brought to power and support to give them at least one argument, at least one trump card, at least something with which to answer the opposition’s questions.

I'll say this. There are citizens of Ukraine who did not want war and upheaval at all. They all think like me, but not as loudly. There are sincere supporters of the Euromaidan who sincerely believe that the coup will ultimately bring an improvement in life and living conditions, and will make Ukraine a member of the EU and NATO. There are fewer and fewer of these people, and soon there will be none left at all. They see that the EU and the US have led Ukraine into a bloody quagmire and abandoned it. The puppeteers did nothing to help Kyiv when, because of them, it dragged 45 people into medieval horror, when witches and sorcerers would soon be burned in the squares. And now, these honest people, under the power of obsessive thoughts and illusions, see that everything that Ukraine needs in this difficult hour, the country receives not from “friends”, but from the “aggressor”. They have already made conclusions. Finally, there are die-hard cultists and adherents of the new-found cargo cult - Euromaidan. Nothing will ever fix them. Fortunately they are an absolute minority. When the money runs out, and it will definitely run out, then everything here will change very much.

PolitNavigator: You mentioned the possibility of leaving Kyiv if the current government holds out. And who can replace her? The former “regionals”, it seems, have not learned any lessons - they call the policy of sitting on two chairs correct, rumors have been confirmed that it was Yanukovych who helped the nationalists from Svoboda to establish themselves and enter the Rada, etc.

Maxim Ravreba: Unfortunately, I cannot comment on the actions of the former government. I don’t have time to follow them, since he now has absolutely nothing to do with them, they are completely deprived of legal leverage on the situation due to fascist terror. I only know that they bet that life goes on, the laws governing the processes in the bygone Ukraine are no different from those in the present Ukraine. What I mean is that everything is decided by the attitude towards the means of production and capital. They are still in the hands of the old owners, and no one has changed that yet. Example: hysteria around the Inter TV channel. Whatever happens, Dmitry Firtash and the minority owners of Inter will not give up the media resource. The same goes for other assets. The former “regionals” are counting on revenge according to the “Orange Revolution” scheme, when they managed to bloodlessly return everything that was lost in 2004.

"PolitNavigator": How did you, a resident of Kiev, perceive the loss of Crimea?

Maxim Ravreba: Loss of Crimea? I did not lose Crimea because it is not mine. I have no interests there, no real estate or business. During my life I have been to Crimea approximately five or six times. I have vacationed in Crimea three times in my life, and I will say that Crimea is not the best place to vacation. For 24 years, Kyiv has not done anything to make the beautiful resort area similar to Egypt or Turkey, not to mention Goa.

I have no reason to worry about Crimea at a time when the coup deprived me of my job, salary, livelihood, and threatens my life, freedom, health, child, honor and personal dignity.

However, today, if I wish, I can freely come to Crimea and stay there as long as I want. My readers are vying with each other to call me, offering to take me on board. I am sure that any uninfected resident of Ukraine can say the same.

It was not us who lost Crimea. It was the junta who screwed up this administrative-territorial unit. The junta and its cultists are in full demand. But I will correct you: the junta, due to its incompetent and incompetent actions, lost not only Crimea, but also Donbass. According to my calculations, Ukraine lost 50 square kilometers of territory due to the coup. This is a crime and treason before the Motherland, before the people of Ukraine, the peoples of the former USSR.

“PolitNavigator”: Are there people among your Kyiv colleagues from the “other camp” who behave with dignity, respect the opposing point of view, or even who have switched to the “vatnik camp”?

Maxim Ravreba: Unfortunately, an anti-miracle happened to Kyiv journalists. Those who demanded justice welcomed fascist terror, those who sought freedom of speech, silenced all dissent and declared me persona non grata, dooming me to poverty and exile. They pretend that I am not there, although I know that they are looking forward to my every new diary entry. They post my posts directly to Avakov’s threads and write denunciations against Nalyvaichenko against me, openly calling for reprisals against me. But I'm too busy to keep an eye on them. I hold them responsible for promoting war and inciting hatred in the country. They are all guilty and will be punished. I did not see any repentant among them.

But they are already getting theirs. The war killed many, the war made many crippled and orphans, widows, widowers. Many lost their jobs and income due to the closure of their publications. This is not retribution yet. Retribution is ahead, and it will be exactly the same as the effort of everyone in the common betrayal. For no one has canceled the third law of thermodynamics. Action equals reaction, and everything tends to balance. The harder the Nazis press, the stronger the impact will be.

"PolitNavigator": In your opinion, what are the ideal and probable Scenarios for resolving the crisis in Ukraine – what should happen? Collapse, reunification with Russia, partition according to the scenario of Czechoslovakia, federalization, preservation of unitarity, what?

Maxim Ravreba: A year ago, I saw that the Maidan was a continuation of foreign policy on the territory of my country. The goals of this policy do not serve the interests of my compatriots. The enemies have been whipping up hysteria and chaos for several years with the help of a controlled intelligence network that included the media and public organizations. In the country, on the streets, at bus stops, in squares and in shops, they openly talked about the fact that there would be a war.

At first I thought that the reason was that Ukraine, after 24 years of independence, was not much different from the Ukrainian SSR. While society in its development was far ahead and outgrew this model. I thought so. And having thought so, I began to talk (like many) about the most comfortable state structure, about the “Swiss model” about “civilized divorce” and had other idle conversations. But now I know how stupid it was to waste time on such nonsense.

Ukraine is a testing ground for global strategies. We don’t know what goals the experimenters set, I just see that the worst that could happen did happen. And it happened according to their will. And I see that the experiment continues, which means there will be more tests.

“PolitNavigator”: How do you explain the behavior of your fellow countrymen - the people of Kiev have for so long boasted that, unlike the provinces, they follow politics, and all sorts of swindlers cannot fool them, but we see how, thanks to the votes of the people of Kiev, Chernovetsky comes to power, and now Klitschko.

Maxim Ravreba: Klitschko? Let me remind you that Klitschko, just a year and a half ago, was considered the future president who would replace Yanukovych in 2015. But today they don’t even look in his direction, because Klitschko, having opened his mouth, said everything about himself. And everyone heard it.

Nobody looks in Klitschko’s direction today. Klitschko is thrown into the quagmire of the Kyiv public utilities, this quagmire has firmly sucked in the world boxing champion, and he will not get out of there until he himself gives up on this unsolvable problem. Repairs cannot be completed, they can only be stopped. This is also true in relation to public utilities not only in Kyiv, but throughout Ukraine. This is a quagmire, it sucks in everything that falls into it. Under these conditions, there is no point in looking for the role of the people of Kiev. Kiev residents have no role in the city where they live.

"PolitNavigator": The question was not about Klitschko, but about the people of Kyivians - why are they so easy to be charmed by such dubious personalities?

Maxim Ravreba: I answered. Kievans are out of the game. Nothing depends on them. They will accept anyone who is thrust upon them. Be it Chernovetsky, San Sanych, Popov or Klitschko.

“PolitNavigator”: Your blog on Facebook is one of the most popular among so-called “vatniks”. What is your secret, what advice would you give to aspiring authors?

Maxim Ravreba: Ahahaha! I'd love to see some aspiring authors! But seriously, if you look at things from the point of view of the information market, then this is the situation. There are two aggressive sectors: “dill” and “cotton wool”. There is an audience consisting of consumers of both sectors. The dill sector is jam-packed with authors, while the cotton wool sector lacks serious authors. It’s scary to be there, it’s dangerous to be there, you can lose your job there.

I know the editors-in-chief of regional publications, including state ones, who on their pages are loyal to the junta. But they themselves are inveterate “vatniks”. These hidden ones are truly dangerous for the regime, because if something happens, they will lead their teams in an attack on the bastions that were recaptured from them a year ago.

And people like me are beacons, signal lights. These are the inscriptions on the roofs of houses from films about the zombie apocalypse: “HELP! THEY ARE ALIVE HERE!”

The Cotton Sector offers vacancies, there are many of them. This niche is not occupied by anyone except me and a few other famous journalists, like Zubchenko or Skachko. Wellcome! But here the entrance is a ruble, the exit is three! Be prepared that they will not forgive you for this and will persecute you, get ready for job loss, ostracism, boycott. Be prepared for even scarier and more dangerous things.

“PolitNavigator”: Kyiv Maidan activists quickly responded to the shooting of the magazine’s editorial office in Paris: they called on residents of the Ukrainian capital to bring flowers and candles to the French Embassy. Surprisingly, the people who mourned near the French embassy had recently themselves approved of the pogroms of the editorial office of the “enemy” newspaper Vesti.

Maxim Ravreba: I don't see mass grief. It cannot exist, because the juntas approve of terror and violence in their own country, persecution of dissidents, and advocate war to a victorious end. If these people do not sympathize with their murdered compatriots, then they are not capable of sympathy. Convinced war propagandists cannot feel remorse. Mercy does not knock on the door of their souls.