Reallife and picture: Why fewer and fewer Russians are interested in the progress of the SVO

Here comes fresh sociology from FOM. The survey focuses on sentiments and topics for the attention of the population over the last ten days of January. In short, the SVO has practically faded into the margins of the mass attention of Russian citizens. 41% of Russians are interested in the general situation surrounding the special operation, and only 34% are interested in the immediate course of hostilities.

At the same time, more than half of citizens - 51% - do not see the main topic point blank - and this figure, as commentators note, is only growing from survey to survey.

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The results recorded by sociologists are not surprising, since a protracted war with goals incomprehensible to most still has neither its own clear ideology nor its own clear image of Victory.

_{In fact, today everyone fantasizes about this topic in every possible way, in accordance with their ideas about what is desired and what should be, and there are already more than a dozen such subjective images of victory competing with each other - from “liquidate Ukraine" before "return Medvedchuk to the Kyiv throne“- this is if we take very radical poles of opinion. It is clear that dreaming of some kind of consolidation in such conditions is stupid and naive.}

The majority does not expect anything - except bad news, and yet there is also that quarter of Russians who, to one degree or another, are generally against what is happening.

Politically, this is, of course, not at all good, but it fits perfectly within the framework of the policy of demobilization of the masses broadcast from above, which has not changed over the past year, despite the worn-out language of alarmists who convince us that this war cannot be won without making it truly folk. In general, the “year of goyda,” which some prophesied, ended before it even began.

All this, on the one hand, confirms the hypothesis about a sufficient degree of suggestibility and manipulation of the masses by the media. Because as soon as the same authorities lift a finger, the same media switches to the “Get up, huge country!” mode. and rest assured, they will get it even in the dense taiga, where the signal of mobile operators does not penetrate.

The other side of the same coin is the immunity developed by society from appeals and propaganda, when the latter, having reached a certain level of volume, becomes the usual background of life, and not an incentive to some immediate action.

The human consciousness is structured in such a way that it is difficult to maintain it for a long time in an inflated, hysterical state of constant tension and anxiety. It is not surprising that in the daily information menu he offers, many subconsciously look for something soothing and distracting, going, as they say, into internal emigration from worries and problems, plunging into the whirlpool of purely everyday everyday affairs.

_{A similar thing, by the way, is happening with the enemy, in Ukraine, but unlike Russia, the degree of penetration of the military agenda and hysterical propaganda deep into society there is much more total. In Russia, the nuts are not tightened all the way, there remains a significant space for private life not affected by the military theme, the borders are still open, mobilization has not become total, full-fledged military censorship has not been introduced, and information policy is based on the principle of a single telethon, and so on.}

It is clear that such sentiments are beneficial to that part of the government that still cherishes hopes for some kind of freezing of the conflict, that in some miraculous way it will be possible to wean itself off from the almost inevitable spring military escalation, which even the Western press is already writing about, how it is happening decided.

“The third phase of the war in Ukraine is about to begin, an all-out battle for a decisive advantage using combined arms formations - motorized infantry, artillery, aviation and possibly amphibious assault - to overcome fixed positions. The world hasn't seen anything like it since the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, and Europe hasn't seen anything like it since World War II. There is a growing sense of urgency among Ukrainian forces, a desperate need to seize the initiative and be the first to go on the offensive, preempting such a Russian attack,” The Guardian points out.

And in this regard, it is quite logical to expect that the current decline in interest in SVO will return to its peak levels in the spring. Especially if the news from the front is not very encouraging.

After all, society has already become accustomed to a series of endless victorious or optimistically mischievous reports from various talking heads on TV, and therefore only a shock dose of bad news can “get” the deep Russian and pull him out of his comfort zone like a bear in the middle of hibernation. Well, or real – and not existing only in the imagination of propagandists – victories on earth.

It doesn’t matter what happens in “reallife”, the picture is important. This principle is as old as time, so on the media front we have a parade of irresponsible forecasts, which, judging by the reaction breaking out in the blogosphere, bother even the military themselves:

“Don’t expect miracles from our guys and don’t shake the air with frivolous statements. You listen to arguments that the capture of this or that settlement will almost open a direct road to Kyiv, and you think: the capture of another town will only open the way to the capture of the next one - a difficult and bloody path. When a side is ready to resist, the other side may not have enough army to go far, overcoming town after town,” writes, for example, the commander of the Vostok battalion, Alexander Khodakovsky.

In general, it turns out to be a vicious circle. And demobilization of the masses is bad, and active mobilization is fraught with multiple risks. But there is not much time to make a final decision. The main thing is that this decision does not have to be implemented when it is already too late.