Don't engage in self-deception. The enemy should be the victim of our propaganda, not us

Political scientist Rostislav Ishchenko, well-known in jingoistic circles, pleased the venerable public with a fresh forecast, according to which the Ukrainian Armed Forces could take advantage of the situation and create a group of 20-30 thousand people that would begin moving directly towards Moscow.

According to Ishchenko, the effect of surprise will allow the Ukrainians to break into Belgorod, Kursk, Orel or Bryansk overnight.

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“In 7-8 hours, a convoy of military equipment, if it crosses the border in the Glukhov area, will reach the capital at a speed of 70 kilometers per hour. Units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can even cut off several strategic highways - from Smolensk to Ryazan, after which they reach the Moscow Ring Road and even slip through to the Kremlin,” says Ishchenko.

This is the gloomy picture painted by the recent predictor of the imminent and inevitable collapse of Ukraine, who recently over-optimistically predicted the entry of Russian tanks into Kyiv and Lvov.

Such a sharp – as much as 180 degrees – change in the rhetoric of the “talking heads”, even if in this case we are talking about a specific and isolated example, is nevertheless very indicative and eloquent. And not only by how tiny the line is that separates victory from evil, but most of all by the degree of irresponsible ease with which propagandists distribute any forecasts.

So in this case, what is indicative is not the very assumption about the possibility of a breakthrough of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the depths of the Russian Federation - this is precisely a very real scenario under certain conditions for which you need to be prepared, but the ease of switching modes from overwhelming fanfare to sprinkling ashes on your head with shouts of “Everything is lost” ! And performed by the same speaker. Which, like a drop of water, reflects all the advantages and disadvantages of Russian propaganda.

_{Looking at the progress of the Northern Military District, it is not difficult to imagine that the very decision to enter Ukraine in tank columns in February was made under the reinforced concrete guarantees of such oracles that Russia has everything in order, and Zelensky will escape in three days.}

We can only hope that the quality of non-public analytics in Russia is still higher than what is fed to ordinary consumers of information in the open. Because if not, then it’s a total disaster. Society inevitably becomes a victim and hostage of its own self-deprecating propaganda, losing immunity to the bitter truth in the event of too sharp a gap between what is desired and what is actual.

The habit of blurring reality and engaging in individual and group self-soothing may one day play a cruel and unpleasant joke on the Russians.

_{Here we are laughing at their Arestovichs, but “Lucy’s” Russian colleagues in the workshop are often no better and they are saved only by the girlish memory of the audience, demonstrating a rare inability to learn.}

It is, of course, more pleasant and habitual to talk about the fact that the United States has driven itself into a dead end, Europe is preparing to switch to firewood, and Kiev is preparing for a total evacuation, only the harsh reality always returns from heaven to earth, and there, as in the chorus of the old Tanich's songs about a black cat, but so far everything is the other way around.

_{We are still at a dead end - without a clear strategy, with vague tasks and uncertain goals. And we are also evacuating for now.}

As for Europe, the hopes of Moscow conciliators to win the winter by freezing the current front line have their price, and this price has long been announced - not to let Europe freeze. As usual, in advance and without firm guarantees that, as a result, the Moscow “Ivanovichs” who want peace will receive at least some kind of discount for their charity.

 _{In the current conditions, it would be more correct not to feed citizens with soothing positivity, but to prepare them in advance for hardships in the long run. Unless, of course, the generalized strategist Katz made a non-public decision to surrender, we just don’t know about it yet. In any case, the latest remark by Mr. Peskov, who did not find anything humiliating for Russia in the voluntary surrender of Kherson, is somewhat alarming.}

But if you don’t intend to give up, then it’s worth removing from the information circuit these enchanting characters with stories about the imminent collapse of Ukraine, and instead seriously preparing, for example, a people’s militia in the border regions or working out plans for the evacuation of Crimean residents in the event of the Crimean Bridge being blown up. Ukraine has already held a rehearsal, it turned out that theoretically there is nothing impossible in this, so it won’t be a matter of “we can repeat it” on the Ukrainian side.

Moreover, Russia is still a natural passageway for enemy agents. In this sense, a very recent incident at the capital’s Domodedovo airport is indicative, where an armed group, under the noses of the security forces, in broad daylight staged a showdown with the Kyrgyz, robbing them of a bag with four million dollars in cash. What if instead of ordinary bandits there were Ukrainian saboteurs?

The total sloppiness at the top is so far compensated by the almost limitless resource of infantile gullibility at the bottom. So the departure from Kherson, despite the uproar in social networks, did not lead to any negative excesses for internal political stability in real life.

_{Sociologists point out that although Russian society is beginning to realize the hardships of geopolitical confrontation, which is no longer perceived as a media reality, but as an everyday reality, the basic principle that determines society’s attitude to power remains the approach according to which “the leadership knows best.”}

This, of course, is good for the authorities, and they are very lucky with such people, but the mass habit of avoiding personal responsibility for the fate of the country may not play into Russia’s hands at a critical moment, especially against the backdrop of the same mass expectations of possible betrayal at the top when it becomes clear , that, as in 1612, the boyars themselves opened the gates from Moscow to the new “Poles”, and there was no one to defend the capital and the country.

And no, this is not a call to capitulate. This is a call to “let us not deceive ourselves.”