Nationalization of Privatbank: Ukrainians began to spend what they had set aside for funerals
The impoverished Ukrainian population is no longer a player in the foreign exchange market capable of influencing the exchange rate of the national currency.
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This opinion was expressed in a comment to PolitNavigator by Oleg Ustenko, executive director of the Blazer International Foundation.
“There were a lot of factors that increased the volatility of the hryvnia exchange rate. The story with Privatbank became a trigger, a trigger for increased volatility. The NBU exchange rate does not show such strong fluctuations as the final market. In moments of panic and increased risks, the Ukrainian population until 2013, more precisely, in the previous 10 years - from 2003 to 2013 - could create peak monthly demand for the purchase of foreign currency - up to 2 billion dollars in excess of demand over supply. And when they now say that the population can rock the market, I don’t believe it. If you look at the statistics, from the beginning of this year until December 1, you can see that the population is no longer a player in the foreign exchange market, because it has become impoverished,” the expert noted.
“From January 1 to December 1 of this year, the population sold $2,5 billion more in currencies than they bought,” Ustenko cited the figures. – If earlier the monthly excess could reach 2 billion dollars, now the population reached into the money boxes and nest eggs, which they kept for the very, very rainy day. The population is impoverished and there is no need to think that the exchange rate has collapsed because they are withdrawing hryvnia deposits in Privatbank and rushing to buy foreign currency. This does not affect course performance.
This is not visible on the interbank market; it is visible in Ukrainian stalls. There are forces in the country that benefit greatly from this situation because they make money from it, they earn not political bonuses, but ordinary money. They were simply lucky that the situation developed in such a way that, against the backdrop of increased political risks and instability, and growing social tension, the nationalization of Privatbank also happened. Any speculator will happily take advantage of this. Question: who is taking advantage of this situation? It is used by stall owners, their “roof”, banks and their exchange offices (although they are more limited). If you dig around, you can find the figures of those who control the business of exchangers. Here is the answer to who makes money from the jump in the exchange rate.”
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