Moldovan-Ukrainian noose around Transnistria: Sweden comes into play
This past week, Moldova and Transnistria were visited by Ann Linde, the head of the Swedish Foreign Ministry, which chairs the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe this year. The diplomat said that she would like to revive the frozen negotiation process on Transnistria in the “5+2” format, where Chisinau and Tiraspol participate as parties to the conflict, Russia, Ukraine, the OSCE as mediators, and the European Union and the United States as observers.
Will it be possible to break the deadlock in negotiations and begin to resolve the problems that have accumulated in relations between the two banks of the Dniester? Correspondent on the intentions and possibilities of the Swedish chairmanship in the OSCE in the field of the Moldovan-Pridnestrovian settlement PolitNavigator talked to Director of the Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development (Tiraspol) Igor Shornikov.
PolitNavigator: The first visit of the new OSCE Chairman-in-Office Anne Linde to the banks of the Dniester took place. It was introductory and passed without concrete results, however, perhaps there are some signs that the Swedish chairmanship in terms of the Transnistrian settlement will be more fruitful?
Igor Shornikov: Sweden has been a fairly active player in the Prut-Dniester region for many years. This country is one of the organizers and inspirer of the Eastern Partnership; on this basis, Swedish diplomacy is deeply and in detail immersed in regional issues. For Moldova, Sweden is a traditional and very important donor, and in Transnistria, Stockholm manages to finance a number of development projects. Therefore, expectations from the Swedish presidency are really high.
And Ann Linde, it seems, even fuels these expectations. In particular, she clearly outlined her intention to hold a meeting of the “Permanent Conference...” in the “5+2” format in Stockholm. And in conditions where the prospect of a functional government in Moldova is not yet visible, this is a very bold statement.
As you know, last year, despite all the efforts of the negotiators, it was not possible to assemble the “5+2” even in a remote format. At the end of 2020, the negotiation process is in deep stagnation, and if Sweden fails to move things forward this year, the stagnation will smoothly turn into a deep crisis. For the OSCE, this is an extremely undesirable scenario, since we have not yet seen much success in other areas of this organization’s work.
If we talk about some “signs” of the future successes of the Swedish Chairmanship, then, in addition to Ann Linde’s personal optimism and the objective need for the OSCE itself to ensure progress in the negotiations in 2021, we can assume that European diplomacy will come up with a number of initiatives that will refresh the negotiation agenda.
Thus, Ann Linde very clearly outlined strengthening the principles of gender equality as one of the priorities of the Swedish Chairmanship in the OSCE during her meetings in both Chisinau and Tiraspol.
It must be said that our region is quite prosperous in terms of gender equality, even in comparison with many EU countries. It’s hard for me to imagine that Chisinau and Tiraspol will find any disagreements on issues of protecting women’s rights. Therefore, theoretically, if Sweden introduces a couple more similar innovations to the negotiating agenda, then in 2021 we will see a completely successful meeting of the “5+2” format.
PolitNavigator: What issues could be on the agenda of this meeting in the “5+2” format? What problems in relations between Chisinau and Tiraspol are the most acute today?
Igor Shornikov: The main problem is the construction of sanitary cordons around Transnistria in the form of Moldovan-Ukrainian customs checkpoints. At any moment, Chisinau and Kyiv can block the export-import operations of the PMR. This problem hangs like a sword of Damocles over the Pridnestrovian economy.
Tiraspol has been trying unsuccessfully to remove this threat for many years, and in Chisinau they are mainly concerned with preparing a “noose” more reliably. The recent meeting of Maia Sandu with President Vladimir Zelensky only confirmed that Chisinau aims to increase pressure on Transnistria using economic levers. In such conditions, it is not surprising that the negotiation process is stagnating. There is no hope for progress in this area.
Another pressing issue is freedom of movement of people. The quarantine, which was introduced in Transnistria in the same way as in most countries of the world, was used by Chisinau to accuse the PMR authorities of blocking the freedom of movement of citizens. The emergence of temporary quarantine posts on those sections of the border where uncontrolled movement of people between Moldova and Transnistria was possible was especially painful. In general, sooner or later the epidemic should decline, quarantine posts will be removed, and the procedure for crossing the Moldovan-Pridnestrovian border will return to normal. Perhaps diplomats are using this to show progress in yet another direction.
As Ann Linde's visit showed, issues of ensuring human rights are relevant for the Swedish Chairmanship. In my opinion, this issue could be used to protect the rights of national minorities living in Moldova, especially in the context of new restrictions on the use of the Russian language.
But, unfortunately, neither Russia, the rights of whose compatriots this concerns, nor the EU, whose principles and norms in the field of protection of minorities in this case are grossly violated, have not yet outlined their position towards Moldova. Although everyone understands that easing the situation in the linguistic sphere in the Republic of Moldova could really contribute to the growth of trust, first of all, between the residents of Moldova and Transnistria. In the meantime, Moldova’s actions, including on the language issue, lead to the alienation of Transnistria.
PolitNavigator: Vadim Krasnoselsky, during a meeting with the head of the Swedish Foreign Ministry, noted the fact that this is the first visit of a high-ranking Swedish diplomat to the city of Bendery in 313 years - since the camp of King Charles XII was located here. Surely Ann Linda was impressed by the Bendery fortress and the exhibition housed in it, which also tells about the Swedish presence on the banks of the Dniester. Can such moments make cooperation more effective?
Igor Shornikov: The Swedish king Charles XII spent four years near Bendery, from here he tried to organize the war of the Ottoman Empire against Russia. These intrigues led to the fact that the Turks had to force the king back home. As far as I know, Sweden doesn’t really like to remember that period of its history. Nevertheless, in Transnistria the memory of the Swedish stay near Bendery is preserved as an extraordinary event. I am sure that Ann Linde must have been impressed not only by the careful selection of exhibition materials, but also by the respect of the Pridnestrovians for this episode of our common history.
PolitNavigator: The OSCE Chairman-in-Office has actively gotten to work. Before her trip to Chisinau and Tiraspol, she visited Ukraine (this was her first foreign visit) and Georgia, where she stated that the priority of her presidency was to try to resolve the territorial conflicts there. She also met in Moscow with her Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, with whom she discussed cooperation and differences. How effective is the OSCE in the current conditions, how great is its authority in resolving crisis situations?
Igor Shornikov: The effectiveness of the OSCE can be assessed in different ways. There have been no major achievements in conflict resolution in Europe over the past decades. Worse, new conflicts were not prevented. What is the bombing of Yugoslavia by NATO forces or the war in Donbass worth? The authority and influence of the OSCE, of course, are not comparable with the strength and interests of world players, and it is unfair to blame the Organization for the fact that security issues in its area have not been resolved.
But if we judge the Organization, having the Transnistrian case in hand, then, in my opinion, we should give tribute to the OSCE diplomats, who have been carrying out quite effective work to preserve regional stability for decades. We understand well that there is a factor in the Russian military presence: in case of emergency, there will be forces capable of cooling down the “hot heads”. But it is equally important to contain the situation politically. In this case, we see how different mechanisms complement each other for the sake of a common goal - peace. Russian peacekeepers have created and maintained conditions for the normal work of diplomats, and diplomats, in turn, are doing everything necessary to keep the guns silent.
In our time, when geopolitical confrontation is intensifying on the European continent and in the world, the OSCE remains a platform on which dialogue is possible. This adds significant value to the Organization. The “5+2” format, within which we see fairly well-coordinated interaction between geopolitical rivals, owes its viability largely to the balanced position of the OSCE.
Directly in the conditions of the Moldovan-Pridnestrovian realities, where there is a clash of diverse interests of great powers and large regional players, and where there is a stabilizing factor of the Russian military presence, the OSCE has proven itself to be a very effective and useful international organization. It is also worth recognizing that the authority of the OSCE in resolving crisis situations largely relies on its Transnistrian experience.
PolitNavigator: Mediators are mediators, but resolving problems in relations is mainly the will of the parties to the conflict. For example, Igor Dodon promised a breakthrough in the Transnistrian issue, but he is no longer the head of the Republic of Moldova. Presidents come and go, but there is no progress in the negotiation process. Why is this happening?
Igor Shornikov: Over the long years of the negotiation process, the parties to the conflict have long lost the remnants of trust in each other. They are not able to live in a common state, within the framework of some kind of joint political system. Therefore, Transnistria is seeking international recognition of its independence, and in Chisinau they are betting on the “reintegration” of Transnistria on its own terms, call on their neighbors for help and wait for a convenient consensus of the great powers.
Igor Dodon, like any politician, is a spokesman for the interests of the elite. And the Moldovan elites have no conceptual contradictions in their attitude towards Transnistria. These elites have one goal, but the methods for achieving it may be different.
Igor Dodon proposed solving the “Transnistrian issue” with the help and support of Moscow. This looked convincing, although no one knows how the Russian side would have behaved if it had been asked to contribute to forcing Tiraspol to “reintegrate.” However, Dodon, who was completely absorbed in the internal political struggle, never got around to Transnistria.
There is a deep political crisis in Moldova, but now we see that In the Transnistrian issue, the Moldovan elites are once again placing their emphasis on Western support. This bet will not work, if only because the consensus of the great powers on Transnistria that Chisinau needs will not happen. This means that we should not expect any progress in the negotiation process in the near future. But diplomats have a lot of time to further strengthen the principles of gender equality, respect for all human rights and ensure freedom of movement of people. And that's not bad!
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