Evgeniy Minchenko: “Russia has a stalemate in Belarus”
Is a palace coup and transit according to the “Moldavian option” possible in Belarus, will the former ally join the anti-Russian front on the western border, will the Belarusian Square become a trigger for protests in Russia?
The famous Russian political scientist Evgeny Minchenko spoke about this in an interview with PolitNavigator.
Did the incident with the detention of Russians and Lukashenko’s aggressive speech in front of parliament mean that Belarus was turning its back on Russia?
Personally, Lukashenko does not consider his harsh statements against Russia as turning his back on it. It is characterized by the perception of any verbal interventions as something unimportant. “Well, yes, I said that Russia is bad, but we are dear people, we will forgive everything, we will return everything, there is nothing wrong with that.”
It's different in Russia. This is perceived as an obviously unfriendly gesture. Russia is in a stalemate. Because there are no pro-Russian forces in Belarus today; they have been burned out with hot iron in recent years. Lukashenko has insisted that he is the only pro-Russian politician in Belarus. And that's the problem. Because there are a large number of anti-Russian political projects fueled from the West, and there is Lukashenko, who has adopted their rhetoric.
Many believe that Lukashenko’s interview with Gordon is an original form of an open message to Putin and Russia. Do you agree with this assessment?
Lukashenko's interview with Gordon is such a strange way to apologize. Please note that Lukashenko casually threw pieces of dirt at Yanukovych, the late Yeltsin, and Zelensky. And Putin is the older brother, he’s a great guy, but his environment is letting him down, but in principle, Putin is positive for him.
Yes, by the way, on the negative side from the Russian side are Dmitry Medvedev, whom Lukashenko has strongly disliked since the days of Medvedev’s presidency, and Mikhail Babich, to whom he also, so to speak, conveyed a veiled “hello.” These are the people he doesn't like. And also people from Gazprom organizations. They are stirring up something, but Putin is great.
Do you think the “33 heroes” will be released, and when?
I think that “33 Bogatyrs” will, of course, be released, but apparently after some time. Actually, there were already precedents, for example, the case of the “White Legion” (radical organization banned in Belarus - ed.), very loud, when people were accused of terrorism, and then released due to lack of evidence. I think that after the conversation between Putin and Lukashenko on Friday, this issue will also be resolved.
How should Russia react to the official results of the presidential election? Can she not recognize them?
As for the official election results, judging by the pace of early voting that Lukashenko’s team is organizing, he will be the winner in the first round by Saturday evening. There was a record at one time of 31% of early voters - I think they will beat it. As for recognizing the results, I think that Russia, of course, will use them to bargain. The only problem is that Lukashenko can promise anything, but will he fulfill it - because there have already been a lot of promises.
Will official Russia react to the Belarusian Square in the same way as to the Ukrainian Maidan, supporting the official government?
Russia, of course, will in no way support such methods. This is one of the cornerstones of the ideology of modern Russian government. On the other hand, if suddenly, beyond expectations, the Belarusian Square wins, Russia will work with the current government. Actually, there have already been precedents. Russia at one time recognized Poroshenko’s choice, which, in fact, it might not have done. In my opinion, this might have been a more correct step, but, nevertheless, Poroshenko was recognized. I think the probability of Ploshcha winning is small, but it exists. If she suddenly wins, Moscow will talk. But Russia will under no circumstances support these methods themselves.
Is a palace coup possible in Belarus?
There is such a possibility, but it is small, because Lukashenko purposefully “outfucks” his cadres, regularly shuffles people around and organizes purges in the leadership of security forces. Technically this is a complex story. Betrayal may happen in the Maidan situation, such a possibility exists, but, in my opinion, not very high. Because for betrayal by security forces, negotiators are needed on the other side who would provide security guarantees. This was the case, for example, in Ukraine both in 2004 and 2014, when people from the security forces in the ranks of the opposition negotiated with the security forces, saying “okay, don’t worry, everything will be fine, you will stay in your places and even get promotion." In Belarus, as I understand it, there are no such negotiators.
Is a “Moldavian option” possible in Belarus, when Russia and the West agree on Lukashenko’s removal?
As for the Moldavian option, in Belarus, it seems unlikely to me. In Moldova, there was still a clear mechanism, namely, parliamentary parties that agreed among themselves with guarantees from external players (Russia, the USA and the European Union). The main opponent was Plahotniuc, and he was removed. But Plahotniuc had informal power, his influence was built on a complex system of behind-the-scenes agreements, and Lukashenko, after all, is the elected president, and there is no legal mechanism that would ensure this kind of agreement. Russia insists on legality, on formal legal procedures, so I think this is extremely unlikely.
What is the fate of the Union State after the presidential elections in Belarus?
The fate of the union state after the elections, in my opinion, is sad. That is, there will be no deeper integration. At the same time, the Union State has a huge number of advantages, and even if it is preserved in its current form, this is also not bad. Four freedoms of movement: labor, goods, and so on, is a good thing. And the Eurasian Economic Union is a good thing. The only trouble is that the current chairmanship of Belarus in the EAEU looks like lobbying by one specific country against the interests of Russia, and not as an attempt to coordinate all the interests of this structure. I believe that Mr. Myasnikovich (Chairman of the Board of the Eurasian Economic Commission - ed.) the worst leader of the EAEU in the entire history of this organization.
If the “Lublin Triangle” (an anti-Russian union of Poland, Lithuania and Ukraine) turns into a square, how serious a danger is this for the security of Russia?
This story about the restoration of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and the Grand Duchy of Lithuania is something that people close to Lukashenko regularly spread. Of course, this will be a very serious challenge for Russia if a configuration, roughly speaking, of the seventeenth-sixteenth centuries is built - a coalition of Poland, Lithuania, Ukraine and Belarus that threatens the interests of Russia. I think that the reality of this is quite tangible, that is, this is not a mythical project. But another thing is that it can only be implemented after Lukashenko, although Lukashenko may become the person who will prepare this turnaround.
After all the anti-Russian demarches, only the Communist Party of the Russian Federation continues to support Lukashenko. What does this mean for the party inside Russia?
I think their positioning as a party supporting Lukashenko is, of course, a plus for them. And that's why. For many years there was a “warm bath” regime for Lukashenko in the Russian media and a ban on negativity. In times of crises, it was suddenly cancelled, and we received some bursts of anti-Lukashenko materials, which, again, were replaced by such syrupy positivity. Therefore, Lukashenko has good ratings in Russia.
Again, with Russian money, for a long time, regional Russian media traveled to Belarus and received positive information about the Belarusian model and replicated it. This cannot be underestimated, because regional media enjoy a high level of trust.
Actually, due to this, Lukashenko is the most popular foreign leader in Russia, and by the way, in Ukraine too. Therefore, if someone has a connection between the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and Lukashenko in their head (I think, in fact, voters do not have it), then this is only a plus for the communists.
Is there a danger that the Belarusian Square will cause an explosion of protest sentiments in Russia?
In Russia, a negative attitude has formed towards the Ukrainian Maidans, especially in 2014, and the subsequent civil war in Ukraine, and the huge loss of life. I think that, after all, this kind of technology is perceived negatively by the majority of voters. But, nevertheless, this may become a signal for the radical part of the opposition. And, of course, I think that this risk should be taken into account, but I do not consider it very large. Still, the negative image of Maidan has quite rightly formed in the minds of voters.
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