Trump will demand concessions from Moscow in exchange for the lifting of sanctions

Is there a chance that in the coming 2017 the West will lift or at least reduce the level of sanctions against Russia? About it "PolitNavigator" interviewed Russian experts. Analysts are cautiously optimistic, but predict that the new American President Donald Trump will likely try to negotiate some concessions from Moscow.

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Evgeniy Minchenko, political scientist:

“The relationship will not be easy. I do not rule out that the decision on new sanctions and the expulsion of Russian diplomats from the United States is not the last “hello” from the Obama administration. I really hope that there will be no attempts to aggravate the situation on the line of contact between Ukraine and the DPR/LPR.

Secondly, we see that these statements by Obama about Russia’s attempts to interfere in the US elections, that Russia needs to be punished, they are supported not only by the Democratic Party, but also by a number of significant figures within the Republican Party, therefore, even If Trump decides to improve relations with the Russian Federation, he will have to confront not only the Democrats, but also large parts of his own party.

I think that, on the one hand, there are prerequisites for improving relations, on the other hand, Trump does not have many technical capabilities for this and room for maneuver. There is a possibility of lifting some of the sanctions that were imposed by presidential decree, but as for those sanctions that were adopted by Congress, it is much more difficult.”

Vladimir Kornilov, political scientist:

“I really hope that in 2017 the United States will begin to ease anti-Russian sanctions. The European Union, in order not to be left in the cold, will sooner or later have to follow Washington.

But I am not one of those optimists who believe in the complete lifting of sanctions by Trump. We must not forget that Trump came with the slogans of protectionist policies. The presence of sanctions against the main geopolitical competitors (Russia, China, etc.) is a convenient tool for protectionism.

Everyone remembers how many decades the Jackson-Vanik Amendment was repealed. Everyone has already forgotten the formal reason for which it was introduced, but, nevertheless, Washington could not refuse it for a long time. Now there is the Magnitsky list, now there is Crimea - I don’t think Trump will give up such tools.”

Oleg Bondarenko, political scientist:

“The prospects for relations with the United States, I think, are positive against the backdrop of Trump’s victory. Despite the fact that the outgoing administration is doing its utmost to spoil our relations, I think this will not work. I think that in 17 the sanctions will most likely end, because the bearers of the sanctions policy will leave their posts. This applies, at a minimum, to Barack Obama, Francois Hollande and, probably, Angela Merkel.

I think that we will be able to assess the impact of sanctions on the Russian economy after some time, but for now this is a very illusory characteristic. On the one hand, we see the growth of agriculture. On the other hand, what is it due to? It is due to the lack of competition from European manufacturers. In essence, the state has adopted a protectionist policy to support domestic producers, but, probably, the state could have done this without sanctions; a certain state protectionism is possible simply after the fact. For us, it turned out only as a retaliatory measure.

Of course, sanctions hit the entire economy from the point of view of its development. This is most painful for two things: the inability to get credit. We do not have “long-term money”, and in the absence of long-term money there are no “long-term” projects. The second is the lack of high technology. In terms of technology, we are still not among the TOP countries.”

Dmitry Gusev, political strategist:

“The outgoing Obama administration and Obama personally tried to aggravate relations. It is clear that this was a trip up to Trump, who will take office as president in January. We now expect a symmetrical strike from Russia, based on all diplomatic norms and rules.

If we talk about sanctions, I think that our leadership will try to do everything to improve relations with America and smooth out the sanctions, but I am sure that they will not be lifted in 2017. This is a long process - both Republicans and Democrats benefit from having a weak Russia as partners. For example, the Jackson-Vanik amendment on sanctions against the Soviet Union was repealed already in the 2000s. The Soviet Union was long gone, but the amendment still existed.

On the other hand, sanctions have a positive effect on our industry, this works to the advantage of our exporters and manufacturers.”

Gevorg Mirzayan, political commentator:

“Everything will depend on whether Trump keeps his promises. Secondly, will Trump be able to fulfill his promises, since he will need to deal with Congress. We still don't know yet whether he was able to reach an agreement with Congress. To some extent, the marker here will be the approval of Rex Timmerson, whose secretary of state Trump wants to appoint. If it takes place, we will see that there is some consensus between Congress and Donald Trump. If this does not happen, and Trump comes out for inauguration without an agreement with Congress, then it will be difficult for him to implement foreign policy, including on Russia.

So far, at the moment, the situation inspires some optimism.

As for sanctions, Trump, of course, will lift them. Most of it, at least. But he won't do it for free. Even if he needs it, if he personally needs to return Russia to Europe so that it moves a little away from China, he still should not lift the sanctions just like that - he should sell them in exchange for some of our concessions.

But everything will depend on how we come to an agreement with him. The most important thing is that there is some hope for optimism; it hasn’t been there for a very long time.”