“Crimea was destined for two scenarios – Donetsk or Odessa”
Simferopol, March 05 (PolitNavigator, Maxim Karpenko) – The swiftness of holding a referendum on reunification with Russia is the key to the success of Crimea, which made it possible to avoid the bloody scenario for the peninsula prepared by the new authorities in Kyiv. If “polite people” had not appeared on the streets, a punitive operation to suppress the rebellious autonomy would soon have begun. Crimean political scientist Andrei Nikiforov, head of the republican branch of the Institute of CIS Countries, spoke about this in an interview with PolitNavigator.
Subscribe to the news "PolitNavigator - Crimea" in Facebook, Classmates or In contact with
"PolitNavigator": What day can be called a turning point for Crimean history, when the intensity of passions was felt most strongly?
Andrey Nikiforov: The danger hovered for several days, but the most turning point was February 26th. It was quite obvious that this clash was unlikely to end without casualties. The fact that there were two dead is a miracle; in fact, there could have been much more. We were on the verge of an interethnic conflict. In fact, all the components necessary for it were collected.
We were on the verge of a complete collapse of democratic institutions and the collapse of the Crimean Republic. At the very least, Crimean parliamentarism was trampled underfoot in front of the Supreme Council. Then a completely unclear prospect arose - what would happen. The most realistic option was that we would not have a parliament for some time. And it will be launched only under the leadership of those people who will be authorized by Kiev.
We were well aware that at this time the Crimean government was pursuing a completely capitulatory policy, voluntarily transferring its powers to people who had already arrived from Kyiv. The result of this day is a feeling of defeat.
"PolitNavigator": The next day, Russian tricolors appeared above the buildings of the Council of Ministers and Parliament. How did you find out about this?
Andrey Nikiforov: Waking up on the morning of February 27th is a completely different psychological background in contrast. We now know that they were ours, although it is still not known who exactly these “ours” were. The fact that they were ours became obvious to me only at the end of that day, although I had already been in the parliament building since 11 o’clock. There were doubts, although, in principle, I activated my sources, and everything agreed that this was not a provocation.
"PolitNavigator":We often hear that on the day when the decision on the referendum was made, there was no quorum in the session hall...
Andrey Nikiforov: At first there were about 57 deputies, then two left. Stories that someone was not present there, but his card voted, are heard not from these deputies, but from the mouths of all kinds of commentators, who were not even close to the building of the Supreme Council at that time, and some were not even in Crimea. A similar legend tells about working at gunpoint.
During those two days, not a single armed person entered either the meeting rooms where the agenda was discussed or the meeting room. People performed the functions of guarding the building - this was extremely important, because on February 26 the building of the Supreme Council was guarded only by volunteers. And the leadership of the Crimean police then did everything to ensure that the building remained unprotected, despite the fact that they knew about the mass actions being prepared there.
"PolitNavigator": Have there been any signals about impending provocations from Kyiv to prevent a referendum?
Andrey Nikiforov: There were many signals, but all of them turned out to be not entirely effective. Kyiv was in a state of knockout and could not recover from this. Things developed very quickly for us. One can imagine what would have happened if the referendum had been delayed until May 25th, as originally planned. Before this time, Kyiv would have come to its senses and started tightening the screws and putting spokes in our wheels.
But they haven't fully figured it out. For example, after the results of the referendum became known, well-informed Kyiv people on March 17, speaking about the prospects for Crimea joining Russia, stated that it was not a fact that this would happen, they imagined a long process of approvals, negotiations, and so on , and everything happened the next day. Kyiv was not ready for such rapidity, and could not suppress anything.
"PolitNavigator":Was there any confidence before the referendum that Russia would want to accept Crimea into its territory?
Andrey Nikiforov:The question itself, which was posed in exactly this way at the referendum, did not appear immediately. This is due to the fact that there were a lot of doubts. It was possible to formulate the question this way only if positions and further actions were clearly agreed upon with Moscow. Asking to go to Russia without guarantees that this request will be responded to positively would be simply adventurism. It was necessary to know for sure that Moscow would react positively to our appeal.
"PolitNavigator": What do you think would be the fate of Crimea if Russia had not accepted it?
Andrey Nikiforov:I think there were two options, and both were shown to us by events in the Ukrainian regions. One is the Odessa option, and the other is the Donbass option. Whatever path Crimea takes, we can guess. I know that many people were preparing for an armed struggle if Crimea was handed over to these conditional “European integrators,” but the fight could only be by going to the mountains and engaging in guerrilla warfare. It’s hard to say how long we would be enough, and how many people would fight. And the Ukrainian authorities would have been able to stifle street protests due to the fact that a significant part of the Crimean Tatars then followed the Majlis, which worked for the putschists. They could send their “right-seekers” here, but, in a word, it would be difficult to stay here. The fact that everything was so fast and as legitimate as possible, plus the helping hand of the Russian Federation, all this did not allow us to follow the Odessa or Donetsk scenario.
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.