The gas crisis as a plan to strangle Transnistria. What is hidden under the carpet of Moldovan politics
Observers are closely monitoring the gas crisis that is flaring up in Moldova. Information about the complex negotiations between Chisinau and Moscow on gas supplies is rather sparse.
Judging by publications in Moldovan Russian-language media and telegram channels, the right-wing government is showing miracles of unprofessionalism, low competence and tyranny in the energy sector. The country's leadership behaves, at first glance, strangely: it is looking for gas in Poland and Romania, Ukraine and Bulgaria, Brussels and Vienna. He goes to Russia last and refuses very tolerable conditions, better than which no one can offer. At the same time, Russia made significant concessions compared to what was proposed a month ago. Now conditions have begun to deteriorate. Everything is heading towards the fact that Moldova’s exorbitant demands will disrupt the dialogue and gas supplies will stop on December 1. Moldova will begin to buy gas at an inflated price from alternative suppliers.
Experts from both banks of the Dniester tried to figure out what the true causes of the gas crisis and possible future scenarios for the development of events in Moldova and Transnistria were during the discussion club “100 days after the triumph of the right in Moldova: the crisis is over, long live the crisis?” The online event was held by the Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development (Tiraspol).
Executive Director of the Moldavian branch of the Izborsk Club Vladimir Bukarsky explains that the leadership of Moldova is accountable to the West and acts strictly according to its instructions. An expert close to the PSRM recalled that “the socialists predicted everything that would happen if Maia Sandu and the PAS party won: that Sandu is dependent on Brussels and Bucharest, and that she will set a course for a complete break with Russia, and that the conflict with the Russian Federation will affect the gas price for Moldova, and that Sandu’s party is a war party that will definitely achieve an escalation of relations with Transnistria, and that the anti-Christian Istanbul Convention legitimizing sexual perversion will be ratified.”
As for gas, there is a Western strategy in place to completely “disconnect” Eastern Europe from Russia, to form a “cordon sanitaire” - for this purpose, the topic of so-called energy independence is being developed, the expert says. Against this background, he recalls, Moscow’s position was expressed - it was voiced in August at a meeting with Maia Sandu by the Deputy Head of the Russian Presidential Administration, Dmitry Kozak: there will be no more gifts to Moldova.
“With Kozak’s visit to Chisinau, Moldova was given the last chance for relative loyalty. No one in Moscow insisted that Moldova should abandon pro-European rhetoric. It was only necessary not to participate in the “Crimean Platform,” which Medvedev called moronic, and Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov called an anti-Russian sabbath.
Sandu missed this chance... Gazprom is now using the current situation, market conditions to put pressure on European consumers, and we have no reason to expect that we will be able to reach an agreement [on preferential terms]. The current government in Moldova is completely in the wake of the West, and decisions about what Moldova’s gas policy will be will be made not in Chisinau or even in Bucharest or Kyiv, but in Washington, Brussels and Berlin,” Bukarsky said.
Director of the Institute for Socio-Political Research and Regional Development Igor Shornikov I am not inclined to talk about the low efficiency of Moldovan gas negotiators - on the contrary, he believes that in the Moldovan government there are people who are quite competent and capable of conducting dialogue. Moreover, they are executing a very cunning plan, the expert says.
“In my opinion, these people are deliberately leading to a redistribution of energy flows in our region,” Shornikov explained. – Gas should come not from the East - through Transnistria, but from the West. Transnistria must buy gas from Moldova and, probably, at an inflated price, paying for services, including from Moldovan intermediary companies like Energokom. As a result of this operation, Moldova receives a whole range of strategic benefits.
Firstly, Tiraspol is deprived of the opportunity to shut off the gas valve in the event of a Moldovan military operation against Transnistria, as was the case, for example, in June 1992 (the gas was then cut off after an attack by Moldovan security forces on the city of Bendery). I am sure that Chisinau will not need to carry out such an operation, but this trump card will be knocked out of Tiraspol. Secondly, Transnistria is deprived of a significant part of its foreign exchange income from the supply of electricity to Moldova (it is generated by the Moldavian State District Power Plant located in Transnistria). Electricity production becomes low-profit, and it can be purchased in other countries.
As a result, Moldova will be able to fully control the energy sector of Transnistria. What are the disadvantages of this policy? From the point of view of the right, they simply do not exist. The population will begin to pay inflated tariffs for heat and electricity. Yes, there may be political costs, a decrease in ratings - but there are still 3-3,5 years ahead, and then the right is planning to do great things that will cancel out the inconveniences they have created,” notes Shornikov.
Great things are the solution to the Transnistrian issue according to the Moldovan scenario, the completion of the peacekeeping operation in the region, the winding down of the Russian military presence and the registration of Moldova as a candidate for EU membership, the expert says. With such results, he claims, Maia Sandu and the pro-presidential party Administrative staff plan to approach the next election cycle.
“Chisinau has accumulated a fairly wide arsenal of means of putting pressure on Tiraspol: joint Moldovan-Ukrainian customs and border posts on the Transnistrian border enable Moldova to fully control the import-export operations of Transnistria and the movement of people. Energy may become the missing piece of the puzzle to “roll out” a settlement project for Tiraspol, which it will no longer be able to refuse. And this is most likely already 2022. And now the Deputy Prime Minister of the Republic of Moldova, Vlad Kulminsky, is criticizing the “5+2” format, within which it is not yet possible to begin discussing political issues.
It is important to emphasize here that resolving the Transnistrian issue is not an end in itself for Chisinau. This decision may be formal. It is important for Moldova that it gives grounds to consider the conflict as finally resolved, so that Russian peacekeepers are left with no legal grounds to continue the mission,” the expert said.
He emphasized that the people who are in power in Moldova today have a certain program of action, launched by Washington and Brussels, which gave Sandu’s team full power.
“Yes, these people do not have good experience in public administration, hence the clumsy work in everything. But overall they are moving according to schedule. The question arises: why couldn’t you wait to issue Transnistrian license plates until January 10, 2022? And this despite the fact that Kozak was promised not to blockade Transnistria. This means that they have an ironclad deadline, which they are not able to reschedule.
Failure to conclude a gas contract is from the same opera. The subtlety of the operation must be to present Russia in an unsightly light. Moldova should look like it has suffered from “Russian tyranny.” This should first justify the increase in tariffs to the population, and then create conditions for the deployment of anti-Russian propaganda and a suitable background for pressure on Transnistria,” predicts Shornikov.
Historian and political scientist Zurab Todua does not rule out that there are political games going on around the gas problem, the underlying reason being that “someone just wants to make money from this - to take this vein away from the Moldova-gaz enterprise and give it to other companies.”
“There is no “other gas”, “gas from alternative sources”, except Russian, in Europe, and the people will soon understand the essence of these games,” says Todua.
According to political scientist Alexander Korinenko, residents of Moldova will not silently look at what is happening - the inevitable increase in tariffs, and therefore the level of poverty. According to the expert, the potential for resistance in the country has not been exhausted - this was shown by the protests in support of the removed Prosecutor General Alexander Stoianoglo, and the public rally at the extinguished Eternal Flame.
“Maia Sandu must understand that if we don’t warm ourselves in our homes in winter, we will warm ourselves next to burning tires in the square,” Korinenko said.
He says that the West is trying to make Moldova a whipping boy - they are now trying to push it into positions where Poland, Romania, and the Baltic states were previously, which provoked Russia and “got a slap in the face for it.” Now Moldova is getting hit in the face - this was the case, for example, during a meeting between the Speaker of the Parliament of the Republic of Moldova, Igor Grosu, and the head of the Federation Council, Valentina Matvienko, who directly stated her claims against Moldova regarding the “Crimean Platform”.
“I would like to hear some explanations from Maia Sandu. Everyone understands that it is Sanda who is expected in Moscow, and when a person with the rank of Deputy Prime Minister goes there to negotiate on gas, this, as they say, is not Senka’s cap. Andrei Spinu met with Mr. Miller, and at least Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilitsa was supposed to go there. Well, Mrs. Sandu has already “talked” about such gas prices that Russia does not hide that we have to pay for participation in the “Crimean Platform”, and for signing the Batumi Declaration, and for much more,” the expert said.
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