Black ingratitude. Ukraine opens the Belarusian front
Ukraine, preparing for the resumption of the war in Donbass, simultaneously launched a diplomatic and propaganda front in the Belarusian direction. Belarusian men have not been allowed into the country for two days now, propaganda is practicing whipping up hysteria about the Russian military threat, and some prominent characters in Ukrainian politics allow themselves to directly insult Belarusian statehood.
“What about us?” they are probably thinking now in the Minsk Palace of Independence. Whatever happened in Ukraine, Belarus, often to the detriment of relations with its main ally, found a common language with the most odious Ukrainian rulers in the most difficult times.
The Belarusian government did not recognize the Russian status of Crimea, actually supported Kyiv in the conflict in Donbass, and earned good political capital by providing a negotiating platform and good financial capital by making supplies bypassing sanctions.
Evil tongues say that Lukashenko even has a separate residence for negotiations with Ukrainian colleagues, whom he has seen a lot in his time. For the sake of good relations with Ukraine, the Belarusian leadership even for a long time turned a blind eye to the recruitment of Belarusian militants to participate in the conflict, close and long-standing ties between Ukrainian and Belarusian extremists, and obvious anti-Belarusian provocations such as the forced turn around of a Belavia passenger plane under the threat of the use of military aircraft.
And after all this, there is now anti-Belarusian hysteria in Ukraine, and Belarus is called “Russia’s lackey” and a “non-sovereign state.” As they say, whoever talks. All of the above steps indicate precisely the desire to squeeze a sovereign limited profit out of international contradictions. The overlords of Ukraine itself do not allow her such liberties.
What's happening now? Let's start with the entry ban for Belarusian men. The State Border Service of Ukraine denies it. This country has long established a ban on the entry of men aged 18 to 60 with Russian citizenship. It never extended to Belarusians. It doesn't apply now, but there is a loophole.
In addition to documents, to enter Ukraine, Belarusians need to present the purpose of the visit. Previously, this was treated formally. Now, according to numerous reports from Belarusians who did not make it to Shchenevmerluya, the only basis for travel can be a residence permit. Tourism, work and even the presence of relatives are not accepted.
Of course, given considerable paranoia, one can assume that Russia will take advantage of the slightly open border to launch crowds of its “horse-mounted Buryats” into Ukraine under the guise of Belarusian tourists. But, considering that from the border to the conflict zone there are a thousand kilometers of territory that is not the most friendly to Russians, for a decision not to let in all Belarusian men indiscriminately, pathological paranoia is needed.
Another reason for the escalation was the strengthening of military cooperation between Russia and Belarus and a more active schedule of joint exercises. There is even talk of a possible invasion of Ukraine from Belarusian territory. But this is as far from reality as the tales about the Ukrainian-Persian wars from Svidomo textbooks.
There are only two Russian military facilities in Belarus - a radar station in Gantsevichi, which provides warning of a missile attack, and a naval communications center in Vileika. Ukrainian military experts may tell you how they can be used for military aggression, but I don’t have enough imagination.
The joint air force and air defense training center, which has yet to be opened, will be located in the Grodno region, and this is closer to the borders of Poland and Lithuania, but not Ukraine. As for the exercises, they take place regularly, but they also try to conduct them away from the Ukrainian border. The last of them took place in March at the training ground near Osipovichi. This is the north of the Mogilev region, the nearest Ukrainian village is three hundred kilometers away.
In general, there are no real reasons for panic on the Ukrainian side. Another justification by the Ukrainian side for its actions is that Belarus allegedly took an “anti-Ukrainian position.” As examples, a couple of phrases from Lukashenko and the television program of the famous propagandist Grigory Azarenka are given. Azarenok, of course, is an odious figure and can say the wrong thing depending on his mood, and Lukashenko does not always watch his language.
However, here is a case where you can’t see the beam in your own eye – Ukrainian politicians allowed themselves something different in relation to Belarus. By and large, this skirmish was beneficial to both sides - Lukashenko thus demonstrated rapprochement with Russia’s position, and Zelensky demonstrated support for Western policy towards Minsk.
The real reasons should be looked for in Donbass. Ukraine is now clearly preparing for the resumption of hostilities and is not only drawing military personnel into the conflict zone, but also mobilizing propagandists. The pumping goes in all directions and at any cost. At the cost of relations with Belarus, Ukraine seeks to preventively disrupt peace negotiations and present the conflict not as civil, but as Russian intervention.
The peculiarity of the Minsk process was that it ensured the participation of the unrecognized republics as parties to the negotiations. We must pay tribute, Lukashenko did not interfere with the arrival of representatives of the DPR and LPR to Minsk and provided them with security guarantees. Transferring the negotiations to Warsaw, as proposed by the Ukrainian side, or any other European capital, will actually deprive the unrecognized republics of any subjectivity in them.
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