Rinat Bessmertny: What awaits Akhmetov?
The results of the early parliamentary elections held in Ukraine have revived conversations about the political fate of the country's main oligarch Rinat Akhmetov. Strictly speaking, this is already an established tradition. Usually, “Akhmetov is buried” every few years, and the last time a surge in such conversations was observed was after the so-called “nationalization” of the assets of Ukrainian businessmen in the DPR and LPR, which in the end turned out to be just a transfer of them under some kind of “external control.” Which, in turn, turned out to be just a screen for Ukrainian owners. But at that moment there were many voices predicting a “terrible end” for Rinat Akhmetov.
And before that, we heard something similar in the spring-summer of 2014, when Ukraine lost control over the industrialized part of Donbass, and as a result of the coup in Kiev, the influence of the old industrial elites of the Donetsk region on the capital’s politics weakened, and on the contrary, the Maidan promoters who took commanding heights has grown.
Now the reason for another series of conversations about Akhmetov’s imminent end has become the disappointing election results for the political projects of the Opposition Bloc and Oleg Lyashko’s Radical Party, which were considered close to him.
In this regard, political scientists started talking about the fact that the richest Ukrainian this time will receive the most meager political representation of his interests in the new parliament, meaning the seven representatives of the Opposition Bloc who passed through the constituencies.
And in the very fresh news about the return of the half-forgotten political showman Savik Shuster to Akhmetov’s TV channel “Ukraine,” some saw Akhmetov preparing a platform to protect his interests through the media from possible future attacks from the new government and competitors.
Of course, in the event of any media wars, Akhmetov will use a resource such as Shuster. However, it seems that everything is much simpler. And for a profitable media outlet that successfully exists in a commercial framework, which TRC “Ukraine” undoubtedly is, the appearance of Shuster’s show there is only a tribute to new opportunities for making money not only from serial soap, but also from political hype. This was the case in the XNUMXs until the last Maidan and the arrival of Poroshenko, who tightened the screws on Ukrainian television to the level of the late Kuchma. However, Zelensky’s thaw again unfrozen the competitive environment: the time has come to allow Shuster back.
It’s the same story with the loss of Lyashko and Muraev-Vilkul. As a matter of fact, the existence of a direct relationship between the number of deputies entered into parliament and the political and economic weight of a particular financial and industrial group is more a popular media myth than a reflection of the real situation.
Because the weight, influence and place of those people whom we habitually call oligarchs - such as Rinat Akhmetov, Dmitry Firtash, Victor Pinchuk, Igor Kolomoisky or Yuriy Kosyuk - are determined not by the number of TV channels concentrated in their hands and not by the quality of those broadcast on them talk shows, but by the share of assets and industries they control in the real sector of the country’s economy, their contribution to GDP and net profit indicators.
In this sense, “those who lived well under the Germans still live well.” After all, elections are elections, but no nationalization or serious redistribution of property took place in the country. Moreover, it is not planned. On the contrary, the new government decisively declared itself as the boss of big capital, announced large-scale privatization and promised all possible assistance.
If we talk specifically about Akhmetov, then his SCM, DTEK or Metinvest - both before and after the elections, remain the backbone of Ukrainian heavy industry, the main employers on which the social situation in the regions depends. Akhmetov, as one of the largest exporters, has also not disappeared anywhere; he, along with Boyko or Grigorishin, or Firtash, still controls a significant part of the country’s energy sector. The new government abolished the Rotterdam+ formula, which allowed for super-profits in the energy sector, but it was replaced by the energy market lobbied by the same Akhmetov, and it remains to be seen which of the formulas will ultimately be more profitable for its beneficiary.
Today, there is no reason to think that the new government will begin to “nightmare” Akhmetov or that he will suddenly, for some reason, go over to the opposition. A systemic business of this level cannot be truly oppositional - neither in Ukraine nor in any other country - except for those whose authorities are pursuing a course towards actually replacing the private sector with the public one. But we don’t have France -1981, but Zelensky with a future prime minister who has not yet been appointed is not Mitterrand and Maurois.
Finally, if we talk directly about lobbying one’s interests, then parliament is only part of such a mechanism. And not the most important one. She's just in plain sight. But much more serious lobbying is taking place at the level of the government, ministers, heads of state regulators, the Antimonopoly Committee and structures that set tariffs for natural monopolies, such as NEURU in the energy sector or tariffs for freight rail transportation - which is sensitive specifically for Akhmetov’s enterprises - after all, this is the delivery of coal .
In addition, the richest person in the country will always find a common language with the head of state - for this, there are mechanisms for business participation in megaprojects patronized by the country’s political leadership. For Yushchenko it was the “Hospital of the Future” and museums of antiquity, for Yanukovych it was big sports and projects like Euro 2012, for Poroshenko it was the Marina Poroshenko Charitable Foundation. It is not yet clear what Zelensky will promote in this regard, but we will probably see something like that. Some kind of global “digitalization”, given the new president’s passion for modern technologies.
So, despite unsuccessful political investments in the last elections, Rinat Akhmetov remains the largest owner and political-economic player in the country, and his voice will, one way or another, be taken into account when making important decisions. It may be taken into account less than in previous seasons, but for him this is not critical.
The current forecasts about some sort of “dekulakization” of Akhmetov seem groundless. Yes, it is possible that in some economic areas he will have to “move up” and concede something to the favorites of the new government. But we are not talking about the redistribution of property directly. They will not take anything away from Akhmetov - the authorities are too concerned about their own reputation in the West. We are talking, rather, about a system of benefits and preferences from the budget. It is not a fact that the new government will be as responsive to the owner of SCM in this sense as the government of Vladimir Groysman.
But even if this happens, it will become more of a minor nuisance for Akhmetov’s empire. Perhaps it will somewhat reduce the usual rate of excess profit, but nothing more. Because Akhmetov is not a “budget cutter” in the classical sense of the word, not a corrupt official who makes money mainly from kickbacks for government purchases and tenders. Its main profit, however, is the export of products from the factories it owns abroad and the sale of electricity to domestic consumers.
As for the prospects for political investment, existing political projects such as the Radical Party or the Opposition Bloc, despite the fact that they did not enter parliament, showed very good results, ending up at the top of the outsider rating.
Considering the Electoral Code adopted at the end of the work of the previous convocation of the Rada, which no longer provides for majoritarian voting and the entry barrier for parties has been lowered, with competent management, both Lyashko and the Opposition Bloc under a new or old guise have a chance of ending up in the new parliament, if, of course, their leaders are for these years will not do anything that will turn their current 4 and 3% of the vote into values close to zero.
In addition, both projects received the right to funding from the budget, which means that the organizational structure on the ground will definitely not be lost. At the same time, some new political investments cannot be ruled out. Here Akhmetov has a large selection of baskets for laying out eggs - from the presidential “Servant of the People” to some still unknown but promising right-wing political force designed for the nationalist electorate.
Deoligarchization, which Ukrainian populist politicians love to wave like a banner, is in reality nothing more than a popular carrot for the electorate, the same as belief in the healing properties of charged water or Chinese pyramids. Economics almost always drives politics, and attempts to put the political-ideological cart ahead of the economic one are usually short-lived and lead to disastrous results.
Therefore, while the oligarchs remain the real owners of the Ukrainian economy, no, even the most fantastic election results will nullify their influence on politics, as reformers living in the world of pink ponies dream of. And Rinat Akhmetov is no exception here. We will continue to hear this name for a long time and pronounce it when discussing the political situation in Ukraine.
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