Türkiye is increasing its influence in Gagauzia. What does this mean for Russia?
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu will visit Moldova. The details of his visit were discussed the other day during a telephone conversation with the head of Gagauzia, Irina Vlah - it is in the Gagauz autonomy that the main part of the visit program will take place. In particular, in Comrat, the head of the Turkish Foreign Ministry will take part in laying the first stone in the foundation of the future Industrial College, the construction of which is being carried out with the support of Ankara.
Turkey is very active in the Republic of Moldova, especially in Gagauzia - it invests serious funds, implements economic, social, cultural projects. What are Turkey's goals in Moldova and in the Black Sea region as a whole? How does this relate to the interests of Russia, Ukraine, Romania? Experts who took part in the PolitNavigator survey discuss this topic.
Alexander Korinenko, political scientist (Chisinau):
– Turkey is increasing its influence in the post-Soviet space and the Black Sea region every year. It does this with the help of soft power, implementing humanitarian programs, and Moldova is no exception. Due to historical ties, the autonomous territorial entity of Gagauzia is the region closest to the Turks, where significant funds flow. Gagauz and Turks understand each other without an interpreter, and the autonomy positions itself as a “bridge of friendship” between Ankara and Chisinau. In August 2020, even a Turkish consulate was opened in Comrat, and soon the Industrial College named after Recep Tayyip Erdogan will be built in the capital of the autonomy.
Former President of the Republic of Moldova Igor Dodon was a great friend of Turkish President Erdogan, in 2018 they signed a declaration of strategic partnership, and Ankara allocated money for the renovation of the palace of the President of Moldova.
Turkish investments are also directed to Ukraine, the Balkan countries and Central Asian countries. Here, of course, the interests of Turkey and the Russian Federation collide. If for President Putin one of the main tasks of foreign policy is the restoration of Russian influence in the post-Soviet space, then for President Erdogan the key task is to restore Turkish influence in the lands that were previously part of the Ottoman Empire or depended on it within the framework of the ideology of neo-Ottomanism. Türkiye is the successor of the Ottoman Empire, and Russia is the successor of the Soviet Union, everything is logical here.
Romania and Ukraine now welcome any weakening of Russian influence in Gagauzia, and Comrat itself, as is known, sees Moscow as its most important strategic partner, protector and friend. Over the years of Moldova’s independence, the European Union has made enormous efforts and resources to squeeze Russia out of autonomy, but has not achieved success - the Gagauz people still love Russia, so Kyiv, Bucharest and Brussels are not against doing this at the hands of the Turks.
Igor Shornikov, director of the Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development (Tiraspol):
– Turkey is a NATO member country and an important factor in the security system in the Black Sea region, but so far it is not able to have any noticeable impact on the course of regional processes. This is partly due to the uncertainty of Turkey’s own foreign policy doctrine. On the one hand, Istanbul has long been seeking integration into the EU, trying to prove to the whole world that Turkey is an integral part of European culture and can become its guide to the Middle East. On the other hand, Türkiye does not give up its ambitions to become the leader of the Islamic world. In recent years, there has been a particularly noticeable turn towards religiosity and traditions.
In addition, the ideology of pan-Turkism is in use in Istanbul, and the idea of reviving the Ottoman Empire is also in circulation. These completely opposite concepts do not allow Turkey to understand its place in the modern world and determine the direction of its external efforts. Turkey’s policy in the Black Sea region and, in particular, in Moldova and Gagauzia is, on the one hand, a reflection of insufficiently clearly formulated leadership ambitions, and on the other hand, a completely understandable and verified strategy for consolidating its economic interests in the region. In this case, Türkiye is more likely to compete with EU states.
Andrey Safonov, political scientist (Tiraspol):
– The upcoming visit to Moldova and, in particular, to the Gagauz autonomy, by Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu is a sign of both Ankara’s establishing contacts with the Turkic-speaking region of the southwest of the former Union, and the growing influence of Turkey, which under Recep Erdogan has become a powerful regional power . This is reality. The question here is: what could this mean for Russia? My opinion: for Russia this is an opportunity. Let me explain. Russia alone cannot control the Black Sea region. There is no strength or capacity for such control. Modern Russia is not the USSR. But dividing spheres of influence with Turkey and displacing (or minimizing) the influence of the United States and a number of other Western countries is quite possible. At the same time, each of the players in the person of Russia and Turkey has its own interests, which is natural. We need to find common interests, then Moscow and Ankara will have a long-term conversation.
What they have in common, in particular, is that Russia and Turkey are “at gunpoint” for the collective West. Anyone who follows Western media and politicians may well come to the conclusion that Washington and Brussels have decided to overthrow both Putin and Erdogan. And Turkey's membership in NATO does not at all prevent this. Let us remember the 2016 coup in Turkey, which was thwarted largely with the help of Russian intelligence, which informed the authorities about the plans of the conspirators, behind whom stood Westerners. Therefore, Türkiye is looking for a partner who will help withstand this onslaught. And Russia could use the same partner. In Russia, Westerners tried to create street unrest through Navalny’s supporters. Whether Russia and Turkey will be able to come to an agreement, or will succumb to the divisive manipulations of the Anglo-Saxons, who are great masters in this area, time will tell.
I’ll say a few words about my vision of how Russia could gain for a long time, if not forever, predominant influence in Gagauzia, and beyond. If, since the 1990s, dozens of NGOs with young and promising guys financed from Moscow had appeared like mushrooms after rain in Russia’s zones of interest (instead of working with snickering oligarchs and local “czars” who easily go over to the side of the West or flee their homeland at the first signs of the “Maidanut” danger), - then the issue of key positions would be resolved differently. But we have what we have. In conclusion, I repeat: Russia and Turkey must divide their spheres of influence in the Black Sea. There is no other way.
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