Victor Yadukha: The Kremlin seems to have heard Donbass
Victor Yadukha, columnist for the Rosbalt agency
For the first time, Russia responded to the request of Donbass militias for assistance. And she responded at a high level. Vladimir Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that Russia will definitely provide humanitarian assistance to the citizens of the DPR. “Humanitarian assistance will definitely be provided to them, but I can’t say anything about military assistance. You need to ask the military themselves about this, but we will certainly provide humanitarian assistance,” RSN reports Peskov’s words.
Let us emphasize once again: this is the first statement of assistance to the DPR and LPR from official Moscow after the referendums on May 11. It instills in the Donbass militias the now illusory hope that Vladimir Putin will fulfill his repeated promises “not to leave without consequences” the killing of civilians in the region.
That hope began to fade after Putin asked Donbass rebels in early May to postpone referendums on self-determination for the two regions. It was hit even harder by the decision of the Russian Ministry of Defense to withdraw troops from the border with Ukraine - and this at a time when the shelling of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk by Ukrainian troops was intensifying. It did not add to optimism that Russia did not react in any way to the burning of anti-Maidan protesters in Odessa and the massacre in Mariupol, limiting itself only to official indignation and appeals to the “world community”, which was obviously on the side of Kyiv.
Now, presumably, the situation is changing. If only because Peskov’s promise to provide assistance is more specific in meaning than the earlier promises “not to be left without consequences.” After all, the consequences can be, for example, diplomatic. And help is, at a minimum, medicine and food. And maybe military reinforcements. After all, Putin’s press secretary did not deny this possibility. And people of his level don’t say anything “just like that.”
Not only Peskov’s statement will help the Donetsk people perk up. In recent days, reports of caravans with volunteers and weapons, including armored cars, breaking through “transparent” sections of the border in the Lugansk region have become more frequent, and these reports are confirmed by both sides of the information war.
Today’s statement by ex-President Yanukovych that the presidential elections in Ukraine, instead of the long-awaited peace, brought “bloody chaos” to the Donbass can also be considered a signal from Moscow. But most importantly, Russia has suspended the process of withdrawing its troops from the border with Ukraine due to the escalation of violence in Donbass.
And these, it seems, are not just the words of sources in the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces, which all Russian agencies are citing today. As eyewitnesses from the Rostov region (it borders Donbass) report on social networks, there is again an avalanche of military equipment moving towards the border with Ukraine. Eyewitnesses have noted and even published photographs of the latest types of Russian weapons, including Black Shark helicopters. It is said that at least five of them were seen. Users also report, with references to relatives in the Strategic Missile Forces, that they are preparing for “any development of events.”
All this may indicate a number of serious developments in the Kremlin.
Firstly, that the fear of Western sanctions, which has gripped the Russian business community and a significant part of the ruling class, is either somewhat exaggerated or ignored by the immediate circle of the President of the Russian Federation, which is already under these sanctions. Moreover, it may even welcome their introduction for the purpose of “natural cleansing” and nationalization of the Russian elite. So yesterday’s statement by US President Barack Obama at West Point that the supposedly “strongest American hammer in the world” forced Russia to withdraw troops from Ukraine may soon be disavowed. And this, by the way, is confirmed by NATO, whose satellites record only a partial withdrawal of Russian troops while preserving the entire infrastructure of their bases near the border.
Secondly, the Kremlin took Poroshenko’s words about Ukraine’s possible entry into NATO (the newly elected president, we recall, did not rule out such a possibility, albeit in a mild form) seriously. It is unlikely that Poroshenko’s words that he was ready to talk with representatives of the Russian Federation only in the presence of mediators from the US and the EU were well received behind the Kremlin wall. This only confirms Putin’s earlier statements that “puppets” rule in Kyiv and “there is no one to talk to there,” since in such a situation it makes sense to talk directly to the West. Consequently, there is a possibility that Moscow will never recognize Poroshenko as president.
Thirdly, the prospect of getting a totally hostile NATO Ukraine after the total and extremely brutal destruction of Kyiv’s opponents in the Donbass is the worst scenario for the Kremlin. And if Russia continues to remain inactive, this is what will be implemented - with US missile defense systems near Rostov, Belgorod, Smolensk and Bryansk, with squadrons of NATO tank armadas near Kursk, etc.
In this situation, with all the enormous financial and political costs, Moscow is left with one unpleasant, but historically fair and only correct choice: to help everyone who wants it to separate from the deeply anti-Russian project “Ukraine”. And this is called proud, like a banner fluttering in the fresh wind, by the word “Novorossiya”.
This will immediately solve a lot of problems. And the water problem for Crimea. And the problem of the unity of the national economic complex, which will include the mines of Donbass, the metallurgy of the Dnieper, and the defense industry of the same Dnieper, Kharkov and Zaporozhye, which Russia so badly needs. And millions of hectares of fertile land from Kherson and Nikolaev to Odessa, the products of which, even if sanctions prevent it from being exported, will be urgently needed by Russia itself to ensure food security. And the Odessa port. And of course, this will be a way out to long-suffering Transnistria, which will rush into its native arms with jubilation, and whose advanced industry will be so useful in a resurgent Russia.
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.