Belarusian migration crisis – propaganda and reality

Let me start with a quote. A little long, but revealing. I think she's worth it.

“If you don’t cool down, then unheated apartments and businesses will cool you down. And don’t squeal that it’s a vital resource, don’t you dare... If you don’t come to your senses, you will now be heated with Biden’s gas. He is the hegemon, there is enough indigestion for everyone.

Well, Europe, small but proud Belarus has cut you to pieces. Now everything is according to the rules and will of Lukashenko.”

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This is not said by some Belarusian opposition humorist trying to ridicule the officialdom. This is the state television of Belarus, the STV channel. The author is TV presenter Grigory Azarenok, who has become famous in recent years. This is how he sees the world and this is how he sees the world and this is how he wants to present his picture to the Belarusian television audience. In his world, Lukashenko is, if not the emperor of the Universe, then at least the ruler of the continent, forcing “Europe” to submit to his rules and will.

How are things going in our real world? Let's start with the fact that in the real world, Belarusian gas simply does not exist. There is Russian gas that enters Europe in transit through Belarus via a Russian pipeline. And no matter what Lukashenko says about the fact that Belarus is warming Europe, neither his words nor the words of the 26-year-old television propagandist can change this fact.

_{The Belarusian president’s desire to dispose of Russian gas was the subject of his conversation with his Russian counterpart, after which Putin said that if such a situation occurs, it will lead to a violation of the agreements under the transit contract, and will also lead to serious consequences for the EU energy system. The head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, concluded from this that “the Russians will not allow this” because they are selling this gas.}

Actually, in the end, no one turned off the gas. Today, however, some were alarmed after reading the message that Gomeltransneft Druzhba OJSC had suspended energy supplies to Europe. But not gas, but oil, not because of politics, but because of planned repairs. In short, everything is like in a joke, and Lukashenko, who promised to leave Europe without heating, has nothing to do with it.

But propaganda is still celebrating the victory in Minsk. Europe caved in, Merkel called Lukashenko. Just twice. And the Belarusian president, who last year categorically refused to answer the phone during a call from Berlin, this time decided not only to answer the call twice, but this fact was perceived as a great diplomatic victory for Minsk. The head of the European state agreed to speak with Lukashenko.

The result of these negotiations is a de-escalation of the migration crisis. If on Tuesday afternoon aggressive crowds of illegal migrants stormed the Polish border, throwing stones and sticks at the border guards, receiving tear gas and water from water cannons in response, then in the evening some of them were transferred to a specially equipped hangar, and on Wednesday the remnants of the illegal immigrants left the site of the “Battle of Bruzgi” "accompanied by Belarusian security forces. At least a break.

The results of negotiations with Merkel so far are as follows: they agreed that the problem would be brought to the level of Belarus and the European Union, and the parties would assign special negotiators for this. In the same context, the problem of transferring migrants to Germany will be solved. Representatives of relevant international organizations were allowed to participate in the process at the request of Ursula von der Leyen.

_{Actually, these conversations did not bring any benefits for Lukashenko. They only allowed us to get out of a dangerous impasse while saving face and prevent an escalation of the conflict and mass casualties. Only solving those problems that he himself could have prevented by stopping the flow of illegal immigrants in time.}

The attempt to put pressure on the European Union was unsuccessful. Lukashenko wanted to be talked to - they talked to him. But there was no talk about recognition of his powers or sanctions. The press service of the Belarusian president claims that discussing these issues was beneath his dignity. Well, maybe it is so, but Belarusian propaganda has been claiming the opposite for the past month.

It is interesting that a few days before this, Putin spoke with Merkel about the Belarusian migration crisis. He then discussed this topic with Macron, continuing to maintain contact with his Belarusian counterpart. I would venture to suggest that it was mainly the Russian president who was involved in resolving the crisis.